
在一个全国民主党人声势浩大的选举日,得克萨斯州的结果却截然不同,可能重塑通往2028年白宫之路。
On an Election Day when national Democrats had monumental momentum, the results in Texas were a breed apart and could reshape the road to the White House in 2028.
詹姆斯·塔拉里科和吉娜·伊诺霍萨双双打破了共和党在深红得州的掌控。但失利并未止步于此。待所有选票清点完毕,得州共和党人可能面临近乎溃败的局面。这一惊人的转折一举证明,民主党人多年来对终有一日翻转得州的乐观并非痴心妄想。即便是得州共和党人在选前最后一刻为美国众议院选举炮制的不公正选区划分,也未能免受全国大势的冲击。
Both James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa broke the Republican Party’s hold in deep-red Texas. But the losses didn’t stop there. When all the ballots are counted, Texas Republicans may be on the receiving end of something approaching a wipeout. It’s a stunning turn that proves in one fell swoop that years of Democrats’ optimism in someday flipping Texas were not foolhardy. Even Texas Republicans gifted last-minute gerrymandered districts in U.S. House races were not immune to the national mood.
对民主党人而言,这是长期投资的回报。年复一年,民主党人始终坚持认为,这将是打破该州共和党狂热的那一个选举周期。而年复一年,他们在选举日次日醒来时,感觉就像试图踢露西的橄榄球的查理·布朗。
For Democrats, it was a dividend long invested. Year after year, Democrats kept insisting that this would be the cycle that would break the Republican fever in the state. And year after year, they woke up the day after Election Day feeling like Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy’s football.
八年前,民主党人全力押注贝托·奥罗克挑战现任参议员特德·克鲁兹的参议院席位。奥罗克以三个百分点的差距惜败。六年后,克鲁兹以超过八个百分点的优势赢得连任。
Eight years ago, Democrats went all-in on Beto O’Rourke’s bid for Senate against incumbent Ted Cruz. O’Rourke came within three points of prevailing. Six years later, Cruz won another term by more than eight points.
尽管如此,民主党人长期以来一直坚称,得州不是一个共和党选民之州,而是一个不投票者之州。周二的选举结果终于证明了这一论断。
Still, Democrats have long insisted that Texas is not a state of Republican voters. It’s a state of non-voters. Tuesday’s results finally proved that thesis.
这一转变可能对2028年总统选举版图产生地震级影响。得州在选举人团中拥有40票,约占赢得白宫所需票数的15%。如果民主党人能够维持在得州的成功,那突然意味着其他传统摇摆州可能变得可有可无。而两党或许都将发现,他们不得不在这庞大而昂贵的州投入巨资,以确保每四年拿下得州的选举人票。
The shift could have seismic consequences for the 2028 presidential map. Texas has 40 votes in the Electoral College, or roughly 15% of the haul needed to win the White House. If Democrats can sustain their success in Texas, that suddenly means other traditional swing states could prove optional. And both parties may find themselves having to invest heavily in the massive and pricey state to pin down Texas’ electoral votes every four years.
塔拉里科的胜选为一场激烈的参议院选战画上句号,这场选战打破了民主党在全国最长的一州全线落败纪录——民主党上一次在得克萨斯州赢得全州选举还是在1994年。塔拉里科也是自1988年以来首位由得州选民选出的民主党参议员。伊诺霍萨则是自1990年以来首位赢得州长职位的民主党人。那一年,民主党人安·理查兹赢得州长之位,随后又将这一职位输给乔治·W·布什,由此开启了共和党对该州行政首脑席位长达三十年的掌控。
Talarico’s win caps an intense Senate race that broke the nation’s longest statewide dryspell for Democrats, who last won statewide in Texas in 1994. Talarico is also the first Democrat to be elected Senator by Texans since 1988. Hinojosa is the first Democrat to win the Governor’s Office since 1990. That was when the governorship was won by Democrat Ann Richards, who then lost it to George W. Bush, beginning a Republican hold on the state's executive seat that would last for three decades.
州长格雷格·阿博特自20世纪90年代以来一直是得州政坛的常客,并积累了庞大的竞选资金,但他输了。长期被视为共和党圈内不可战胜人物的丹·帕特里克,也面临失去权势显赫的副州长职位。等到所有选票清点完毕,州检察长一职也可能落入民主党人之手。甚至得克萨斯州最高法院的席位也有望翻蓝,这将是1994年以来的首次。
Gov. Greg Abbott, a fixture in Texas politics dating to the 1990s who had amassed a massive warchest, lost. Dan Patrick, long seen as an invincible figure in Republican circles, was positioned to lose the powerful office of Lieutenant Governor. The state Attorney General could also end up going to a Democrat by the time all the votes are counted. Even seats on the Texas Supreme Court were positioned to flip blue, a first since 1994.
对全国各地的民主党人来说,这是一个非常美好的夜晚,选民以压倒性态度否定了共和党人对总统唐纳德·特朗普的拥护,而特朗普在选举日的民调支持率处于历史低点。但在得州,这一效应尤为强劲,这在很大程度上要归功于特朗普干预共和党初选,力推丑闻缠身的该州即将卸任的检察长肯·帕克斯顿获得提名。出口民调显示,即使在得州,也有77%的选民表示他们并非MAGA的信奉者。同一项调查发现,超过半数——54%——的选民表示特朗普不具备有效履行其职责的心智能力。
It was a very good night for Democrats from coast to coast as voters resoundingly rejected Republicans’ embrace of President Donald Trump, whose polling on Election Day was at record lows. But it was particularly potent in Texas, thanks in no small measure to Trump’s intervention in the GOP primary to nominate the scandal-plagued Ken Paxton, the state’s outgoing attorney general. Even in Texas, 77% of voters said they were not adherents of MAGA, according to exit polls. The same surveys found more than half—54%—said Trump did not have the mental capacity to effectively do his job.
这一夜也是亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克的重大失败,他在得州选战中花费了2.24亿美元。事实证明,这完全未能阻止他所在的州坚定倒向共和党。
The night was also a massive defeat of billionaire Elon Musk, who spent $224 million on Texas races. That proved completely ineffective to keep his state tilted solidly Republican.
如今,得州的共和党人——以及华盛顿的共和党人——面临一项艰巨的任务:如果得州的40张选举人票不再稳操胜券,他们该如何设法凑够270张选举人票。
Now, Republicans in Texas—and Washington—face the unenviable task of trying to consider how they could get to 270 electoral votes if Texas’ 40 aren’t a lock.