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国会山报

民主党刚刚打破共和党对得克萨斯的掌控。接下来会发生什么?Democrats just broke GOP’s grip on Texas. What comes next?

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得克萨斯州周二发生了一场地震般的政治变局,民主党人在一个传统的保守派大本营中翻转了一个参议院席位和州长职位。

A seismic political shift occurred in Texas on Tuesday, as Democrats flipped a Senate seat and the governor’s mansion in a traditionally conservative stronghold.

当选参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科以两位数的优势击败州检察长肯·帕克斯顿,当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨爆冷击败寻求连任第三个任期的州长格雷格·阿博特,民主党打破了共和党对美国人口第二大州的控制。

With Sen.-elect James Talarico’s double-digit victory over state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa’s upset win over three-term Gov. Greg Abbott, Democrats broke the GOP’s grip on the second-most populous state in the country.

这一结果改变了得克萨斯州的政治版图——共和党长期将其吹捧为企业逃离民主党执政的加利福尼亚州时的商业友好型替代选择——使其从一个可靠的“红州”变成了民主党可以在全州范围内获胜的地方。

The results shift Texas, which Republicans have long touted as a business-friendly alternative for companies looking to flee Democratic-run California, from a reliably red state to a place where Democrats can win statewide.

民主党策略师安特万·西赖特对《国会山报》表示:“我认为得克萨斯州,就像南卡罗来纳州,就像整个南方一样,孕育着无限可能。”

“I think Texas, like South Carolina and like the entire South, is pregnant with possibility,” Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright told The Hill.

在周二之前,民主党上一次赢得得克萨斯州州长选举还是前州长安·理查兹在1990年。该党在得克萨斯州参议院选举中的干旱期甚至更长,前参议员劳埃德·本特森在1988年是最后一位当选联邦参议院的“孤星州”民主党人。

Prior to Tuesday, a Democrat had not won a Texas gubernatorial race since former Gov. Ann Richards in 1990. The party’s dry spell in Texas Senate races was even longer, as former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 was the last Democrat from the Lone Star State elected to the upper chamber.

在此期间,得克萨斯州从一个摇摆州转变为共和党可以可靠地期望赢得全州选举的州。

During that time, Texas transitioned from a purple state to one where Republicans could reliably expect to win statewide races.

这为商业利益带来了回报。根据阿波罗技术公司的数据,得克萨斯州拥有全美最多的炼油厂,共29座。这比排名第二的路易斯安那州多出15座。

That paid dividends for business interests. Texas has the most oil refineries of any state in the country, with 29, according to data from Apollo Technical. That is 15 more than Louisiana, the next-closest state.

在阿博特执政下,得克萨斯州也成为了跨行业企业的目的地。自新冠疫情以来,查尔斯·施瓦布、雪佛龙、甲骨文、SpaceX和特斯拉已从加利福尼亚州迁往“孤星州”,企业领袖常提及前者商业友好的环境和较低的税收。

Under Abbott, Texas also became a destination for companies across industries. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Charles Schwab, Chevron, Oracle, Space X and Tesla have moved to the Lone Star State from California, with company leaders often citing the business-friendly environment and lower taxes of the former.

其中包括SpaceX和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克。这位世界首富上个月向支持帕克斯顿的得克萨斯州政治行动委员会捐赠了1.58亿美元。

That included Elon Musk, the CEO of Space X and Tesla. Musk, the richest man in the world, directed $158 million to the Paxton-aligned Texas PAC last month.

这一押注并未奏效,塔拉里科以遏制富有捐赠者和亿万富翁对政治的影响为竞选纲领,轻松击败了州检察长。

That bet did not pay off, as Talarico campaigned on reining in the influence of wealthy donors and billionaires on politics en route to a comfortable victory over the state attorney general.

在胜选演说中,这位当选参议员提到了马斯克,表示他挑战了“世界上最富有的人”,并将自己比作击败歌利亚的弱者大卫。

During his victory speech, the incoming senator referenced Musk, saying he took on “the richest man in the world” and comparing himself to the underdog David who defeated Goliath.

塔拉里科说:“我们刚刚向每一位亿万富翁大额捐赠者、每一位万亿富翁大额捐赠者、这个破败政治体制的每一位腐败捍卫者发出了一个信息。在这个州、在这个国家,权力属于人民。”

“We just sent a message to every billionaire mega-donor, every trillionaire mega-donor, every corrupt defender of this broken political system. In this state, in this country, power belongs to the people,” Talarico remarked.

伊诺霍萨周二的讲话基调相似,她说她的胜利证明得克萨斯州是“属于人民、由人民建设”的,并不“属于”亿万富翁。

Hinojosa spoke in a similar tone on Tuesday, saying her victory proved Texas was “by and for the people” and did not “belong” to billionaires.

她说:“得克萨斯州属于为这片土地耕耘了几代人的农民和牧场主,还是属于试图买下它的企业?”她此言意指她与阿博特竞争中的这种动态。

“Does Texas belong to the farmers and ranchers who have worked this land for generations, or the corporations trying to buy it up?” she said, referencing the dynamics of her race against Abbott.

民主党在得州的强势表现不仅体现在塔拉里科和伊诺霍萨身上。民主党籍州众议员维基·古德温击败了副州长丹·帕特里克(共和党),而民主党赢得了州检察长、审计长、铁路委员和农业委员的竞选。

The strong night for Democrats in Texas did not apply solely to Talarico and Hinojosa. Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin defeated Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), while Democrats won the races for state attorney general, comptroller, railroad commissioner and agriculture commissioner.

民主党还夺回了得州众议院,终结了共和党长达24年同时控制州议会两院的局面。

Democrats also captured the Texas House, ending Republicans’ 24-year run in charge of both state legislature chambers.

土生土长的得州人、非营利能源行业监督组织“未来劫掠”负责人索尔·埃尔贝因认为,全州范围内民主党的胜利不会开启商业限制的新时代。

Saul Elbein, a native Texan who runs the nonprofit energy industry watchdog Future Heist, argued statewide Democratic victories will not usher in a new era of restrictions on business.

埃尔贝因告诉《国会山报》,虽然试图建设数据中心的公司“可能会更难办事”,因为伊诺霍萨将入主州长官邸,但企业将从民主党专注经济议题中受益。

Elbein told The Hill that while companies attempting to build data centers “may have a harder time” with Hinojosa in the governor’s mansion, businesses will benefit from Democrats focusing on economic issues.

“我认为新进来的这批人,至少在治理方面表现得非常严肃,我认为这是商界所期待的回归,即使他们更希望缴纳更低的税收,”曾任《国会山报》记者的埃尔贝因补充道。

“I think the new group of people who have come in are, at the very least, deeply serious about governance in a way that I think is a return to what business is looking for, even if they would prefer to pay lower taxes,” added Elbein, also a former reporter for The Hill.

评论员和政界人士列举了多种因素,以解释得克萨斯州发生的“蓝色地震”,当时民主党在全国范围内夺回了众议院、参议院和多个州长职位。今年早些时候在共和党初选中败给深陷丑闻的帕克斯顿的参议员约翰·科宁(共和党-得克萨斯州)表示,结果显示“品格和诚信对选民依然重要”。

Pundits and politicians cited a variety of factors for the blue earthquake in Texas, which came as Democrats flipped the House, Senate and multiple governor’s mansions across the country Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost the GOP primary to the scandal-plagued Paxton earlier this year, said the results show “character and integrity still matter” to voters.

“在得克萨斯州,传统保守派和独立人士被要求吞下一份近乎滑稽的个人丑闻和不当行为清单,”科宁在周三发表于《华尔街日报》的一篇评论文章中写道。

“Here in Texas, traditional conservatives and independents were asked to swallow an almost comical list of personal scandals and improprieties,” Cornyn wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece published Wednesday.

西沃特援引经济担忧,提到高柴油价格对得克萨斯州农民和养牛场的影响。据美国汽车协会(AAA)数据,在伊朗战争期间,柴油价格飙升,得克萨斯州每加仑柴油平均比一年前贵约2.51美元。

Seawright cited economic concerns, referencing high diesel prices’ impact on farmers and cattle ranches in Texas. The price of diesel has soared during the Iran war, with a gallon costing roughly $2.51 more on average than it did a year ago in Texas, according to AAA.

曾任共和党全国委员会通讯主任的道格·海伊将责任归咎于特朗普。这位共和党策略师表示,周二的选举结果源于一场“完全由特朗普自造的‘特朗普地震’”,它“如同一只信天翁,扼杀了全国范围内的共和党人”。

Doug Heye, the former communications director for the Republican National Committee, faulted Trump. The GOP strategist said Tuesday’s results stemmed from a “totally self-created Trump Quake” which acted “as an albatross that smothered Republicans” across the country.

“再加上塔拉里科和伊诺霍萨等优秀聪明的民主党候选人,特朗普制造了完美的民主党风暴,”海伊补充道。这种“风暴”是否预示着得克萨斯州在全州范围的竞选中将持续具有竞争力,目前尚不清楚,西沃特承认。

“Add to that good smart Democratic candidates like Talarico and Hinojosa and Trump created the perfect Democratic storm,” Heye added via Whether that “storm” signals Texas being consistently competitive in statewide races is unclear, Seawright acknowledged.

这位民主党策略师指出,“没有任何联盟是永恒的”,表示他的党将必须在“每一个周期”都“在塔拉里科、伊诺霍萨和其他民主党人取得的成果基础上扩大战果”。

The Democratic strategist noted that “no coalition is forever,” saying his party will have to “expand on” what Talarico, Hinojosa and other Democrats pulled off “every single cycle” going forward.

埃尔班表示,他“完全可以想象”民主党人在2028年总统大选中赢得得克萨斯州——前提是该党兑现对选民的承诺。

Elbein, though, said he could “absolutely see” a Democrat winning Texas in the 2028 presidential election — if the party delivers on its promises to voters.

他指出:“根据选民构成的数字来看,我看不出有任何特别理由说明得克萨斯州不会成为竞争州。”

“I don’t see any particular reason, based on the numbers in the electorate, why Texas wouldn’t be in play,” he noted.

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