“在德州,一切都更大,包括这场胜利的震撼,”吉娜·希诺霍萨在11月3日的胜利演讲中说。虽然她几个月来一直告诉选民,民主党人可以赢得州长之职,但显然她并没有真正相信。评论员们认为,民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科可能会以微弱优势获胜。在选举之夜为他举办的观看派对上,工作人员刷新早期投票结果页面,怀疑这些出色的数字是否是错误。
“EVERYTHING IS BIGGER in Texas, including the shock of this win,” Gina Hinojosa said in her victory speech on November 3rd. Though she had spent months telling voters that a Democrat could win the governorship, she clearly hadn’t believed it. Pundits had reckoned James Talarico, the Democratic Senate candidate, could win narrowly. At a watch party for him on election night, staffers refreshed early-voting results pages, wondering if stellar numbers were a glitch.
到午夜,戴着“Talafreako”衬衫的疲惫德州人涌向奥斯汀市中心,惊讶地欢呼:民主党人席卷德州,以12个百分点赢得参议院席位,取代了选票上所有州级共和党官员,赢得一席国会席位并翻盘德州众议院。共和党人花费的资金是民主党人的两倍多。
By midnight, bleary-eyed Texans in “Talafreako” shirts flooded downtown Austin cheering in disbelief: Democrats had swept Texas, winning the Senate seat by 12 points, replacing every Republican statewide official on the ballot, picking up one congressional seat and flipping the Texas House. Republicans had outspent them more than two to one.
民主党人重新赢得了一些摇摆选民,尤其是在墨西哥边境地区,这些选民在2024年投票给了共和党人。对经济问题的失望和对移民执法手段的担忧使这些选民重新回到民主党,南德州的平均获胜幅度超过20个百分点。民主党人最终也说服了长期的共和党选民尝试新事物。科林、登顿和塔兰特县——达拉斯北部倾向共和党的郊区——全部翻盘。民主党赢得了德州共和党去年通过红线划分的五个国会席位中的四个,表面上对他们有利。
Democrats won back some swing voters, particularly along the Mexican border, who had cast their ballots for Republicans in 2024. Disappointment on economic issues and dismay over immigration-enforcement tactics sent those voters rushing back to Democrats, with average margins of victory in South Texas topping 20 points. Democrats also, at last, convinced longtime Republicans to try something new. Collin, Denton and Tarrant counties, Republican-leaning suburbs north of Dallas, all flipped. Democrats won four of the five congressional seats that Texas Republicans gerrymandered last year, ostensibly in their favour.
得克萨斯州民主党主席肯德尔·斯卡德坚称,得州民主党人与全国同行截然不同。“我们当中很多人真心认为,政府应当为你提供积极的服务,对所有人公平,然后滚出你的生活,”大选翌晨,他对《经济学人》表示。他补充说,现在的任务是“开始消除他们通过福克斯新闻不断散布的迷思,即我们是一群‘增税挥霍’的自由派,而应当展现负责任的管家形象”。
What will Texas Democrats do with their new power? Kendall Scudder, the state Democratic Party chairman, insists Texas Democrats are different from their national counterparts. “A lot of us really believe that the government should provide you with positive services, be fair to everybody and get the hell out of your lives,” he told The Economist the morning after the election. The task now, he added, is to “start dispelling these myths that they perpetuate through Fox News that we’re a bunch of tax-and-spend liberals, but instead be responsible stewards”.
当被问及该党是否会优先推翻社会政策——例如得州严格的堕胎禁令——时,他没有直接回应。相反,他说希望华盛顿的民主党人能扭转《一项宏伟美丽法案》带来的削减,尤其是医疗方面的削减。得州是全美无保险公民比例最高的州;农村医疗资金减少将迫使全州各地医院关闭。
Asked whether the party would prioritise rolling back social policies, such as Texas’s strict abortion ban, he didn’t respond directly. Instead, he said he hopes Democrats in Washington can reverse the cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, particularly to health care. Texas has the country’s highest rate of uninsured citizens; less money for rural health care is due to force hospital closures across the state.
伊诺霍萨击败连任三届的州长格雷格·阿博特,比民主党在国会的胜利更令人意外。但她在州内的权力仍受制约。她那带有特朗普风格的竞选承诺——向每个得州家庭发放 1500 美元支票,被称为“腐败税退税”——可能耗资 170 亿美元,不太可能获得共和党控制的州参议院支持。州政府机构、大学校董会和政策委员会由约 2500 名官僚组成,其中许多人任期六年,州长无权解雇他们任何一人。伊诺霍萨也无法重塑法院。该州九名最高法院大法官中有七名是由阿博特任命的。
Ms Hinojosa’s defeat of Greg Abbott, a three-term governor, was even more of a surprise than Democrats’ victories in Congress. Constraints on her power within the state remain. Her Trumpian campaign promise to send every Texas household a $1,500 cheque, dubbed the “corruption tax refund”, could cost the state $17bn and is unlikely to gain the support of the Republican-controlled state Senate. State agencies, university boards and policy commissions are staffed by some 2,500 bureaucrats, many of whom serve six-year terms and none of whom the governor can sack. Nor can Ms Hinojosa reshape the courts. Seven of the state’s nine supreme court justices were appointed by Mr Abbott.
尽管如此,她计划着手拆除阿博特的许多政策。她想要终止“企业福利”,企业界担心这意味着取消税收减免。她在竞选中反对数据中心,而阿博特最初曾欢迎数据中心落户。伊诺霍萨和塔拉里科还曾激烈反对该州10亿美元的学校券计划,该计划于今秋启动。伊诺霍萨计划解雇这位共和党籍教育专员;新任民主党籍审计长莎拉·埃克哈特将对支持私立学校的纳税人资金增加新的监管。
Nevertheless, she plans to start working to dismantle many of Mr Abbott’s policies. She wants to end “corporate welfare”, which businesses fear means eliminating tax breaks. She campaigned against data centres, which Mr Abbott initially welcomed. Ms Hinojosa and Mr Talarico also fought bitterly against the state’s $1bn school-voucher scheme, which launched this autumn. Ms Hinojosa plans to fire the Republican education commissioner; Sarah Eckhardt, the new Democratic comptroller, will add new oversight to taxpayer dollars supporting private schools.
该党的其他优先事项包括反腐败立法和削减财产税;在阿博特任内,这些税收上涨了86%。新任检察长内森·约翰逊可能会加入其他蓝州——这仍是一个超现实的说法——起诉特朗普政府。“挨了30年拳头后,现在是时候干活了,”奥斯汀的民主党游说者杰森·萨博说。民主党眼下的当务之急是充实人手。“我们没有肌肉,”斯卡德说,他开玩笑说突然意识到自己必须筹划就职典礼。
The party’s other priorities include anti-corruption legislation and cutting property taxes; those levies rose by 86% during Mr Abbott’s tenure. Nathan Johnson, the incoming attorney-general, may join other blue states—still a surreal phrase—in suing the Trump administration. “After getting punched in the face for 30 years, it’s now time to get to work,” says Jason Sabo, a Democratic lobbyist in Austin. The immediate task for Democrats is staffing up. “We don’t have the muscle,” says Mr Scudder, who joked that he has suddenly realised he must plan an inauguration.
民主党人因在得克萨斯州获胜而感到兴奋,但这种兴奋因今年情况特殊而有所降温。得克萨斯州和其他地方一样,选民的不满情绪极高。共和党参议员提名人肯·帕克斯顿是一位极其糟糕的候选人,而阿博特的长期执政为民主党提供了一个容易的靶子,可将选民的愤怒引导向他。共和党候选人和资金雄厚的捐赠者很可能会尝试发起一场广泛且资金充足的反扑。
Democrats’ thrill at winning in Texas is tempered by the knowledge that this year was extraordinary. Dissatisfaction in Texas, as elsewhere, was extreme. Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee, was an abysmal candidate and Mr Abbott’s long tenure provided Democrats with an easy target at which to direct voters’ angst. Republican candidates and deep-pocketed donors are likely to attempt a broad, well-funded comeback.
南方卫理公会大学的卡尔·吉尔森说,在孤星州,政治重组不会一蹴而成。“即使民主党不让人失望,”吉尔森解释道,“得克萨斯州现在还不是一个蓝州。”该党将努力使其成为蓝州。■
In the Lone Star State political realignment doesn’t happen overnight, says Cal Jillson of Southern Methodist University. “Even if Democrats don’t disappoint,” Mr Jillson explains, “Texas is not a blue state now.”The party will work hard to make it so. ■