美国财政部借款咨询委员会最新会议认为，人工智能驱动的企业借贷并未挤占对美国国债的需求，但警告称这轮融资热潮仍处于早期阶段。
AI-driven corporate borrowing isn't crowding out demand for US Treasuries, according to the latest meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, which cautioned that the financing boom is still in its early stages.
美国财政部借款咨询委员会由大型银行和投资者组成，就美国财政部的借款策略提供建议。许多分析师表示，创纪录的企业借贷为人工智能投资提供资金，助推了债券抛售，上月长期美国国债收益率升至2002年以来最高水平。
The TBAC is a group of large banks and investors that advises the US Treasury on its borrowing strategy. Many analysts say record corporate borrowing to fund artificial intelligence investment has helped drive a bond selloff that last month sent longer-dated Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2002.
该委员会在周三发布的美国季度再融资声明中表示：“美国国债拍卖结果没有证据表明，2026年科技相关的债券发行挤占了长端美国国债的需求。”“就科技投资对利率的影响而言，委员会认为这种传导源于更强劲的增长，而非通过挤占效应。”美国财政部借款咨询委员会表示，收益率上升主要反映增长、政策预期和能源价格。不过，该委员会指出，科技行业的大规模债券发行以及对未来融资需求的不确定性，已导致该行业的利差扩大，并加剧了对长久期资本的竞争。
“Treasury auction results show no evidence that 2026 technology-related issuance has crowded out long-end Treasury demand,” the committee said in a statement released on Wednesday for the US quarterly refunding. “To the extent technology investment is affecting rates, the Committee viewed the transmission as stemming from stronger growth rather than through crowding out.”The TBAC said higher yields have mainly reflected growth, policy expectations and energy prices. Still, it noted that heavy tech issuance and uncertainty over future financing needs have widened spreads in the sector and increased competition for long-duration capital.
该委员会还表示，外国投资者为美国科技提供融资的需求增强了美元强势，并促成了金融环境的收紧，而大规模发行窗口也可能在边际上影响美国国债的让价和套期保值资金流动。
The committee also said that foreign investors' demand to finance US technology has added to dollar strength and contributed to tighter financial conditions, and that large issuance windows may also influence Treasury concessions and hedging flows at the margin.
该委员会表示，与此同时，外国对美国固定收益资产的需求今年有所回升，更广泛的投资者基础可以吸收更多供应。该委员会表示，家庭和私人养老金对债券的配置仍然偏低，因此即使从现金和股票小幅转移，也可能吸收大部分预期借款。
Foreign demand for US fixed income, meanwhile, has picked up this year and the wider investor base can absorb more supply, the committee said. Households and private pensions remain underweight bonds, it said, so even modest shifts from cash and equities could soak up much of the projected borrowing.
TBAC 还审视了美国国债衍生品使用量的增长。自 2022 年收益率上升以来，资产管理公司增加了期货交易，以获取美国国债的合成敞口。保险公司和养老基金也更多地使用利率互换来管理久期——即衡量投资对利率变化敏感程度的指标。
The TBAC also looked at the growing use of Treasury derivatives. Since yields rose in 2022, asset managers have traded more futures to gain synthetic exposure to Treasuries. Insurers and pension funds are also using more interest rate swaps to manage their duration — a measure of how sensitive an investment is to changes in interest rates.
这一趋势引发了对杠杆率上升可能放大波动并加剧抛售的担忧。不过，委员会得出结论认为，“通过衍生品表达久期，通过拓宽市场准入和扩大中介能力，增强了对美国国债的需求。”为进一步提振对美国国债的需求，委员会建议放宽银行资产负债表约束，包括将美国国债从杠杆率计算中豁免。委员会还建议扩大回购协议市场的准入，并审视围绕回购协议的会计、税务和运营障碍。
The trend has raised concerns about rising leverage that could amplify volatility and worsen a selloff. The committee concluded, though, that "expressing duration through derivatives enhances demand for Treasuries by broadening market access and expanding intermediation capacity." To boost demand for Treasuries further, the committee recommended easing bank balance-sheet constraints, including exempting Treasuries from leverage ratios. It also recommended expanding access to the repurchase agreement market and reviewing the accounting, tax and operational hurdles around repo.