奥斯汀——得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州、宾夕法尼亚州、科罗拉多州、亚利桑那州、内华达州、加利福尼亚州。
AUSTIN — Texas. Florida. Pennsylvania.
周二，拉美裔选民历史性地大规模倒向民主党，在一个又一个关键摇摆州击溃了上一届选举周期帮助唐纳德·特朗普总统赢得胜利的联盟。
Colorado. Arizona. Nevada.
“这是一场地震，”民主党拉美裔策略人塞尔吉奥·冈萨雷斯在奥斯汀得克萨斯州当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨的胜选派对现场告诉《政治报》。“拉美裔选民很愤怒。他们在这次选举中非常愤怒。”虽然全国整体都向民主党倾斜，但以拉美裔为主的地区转变最为剧烈。全美各地、各背景的拉美裔选民——西南部、中西部和西海岸的墨西哥裔和中美裔美国人，宾夕法尼亚州的波多黎各裔和多米尼加裔，佛罗里达州的委内瑞拉裔、波多黎各裔和古巴裔——因对经济不满、对特朗普的移民执法政策愤怒，成群结队地抛弃了共和党。
California. The historic landslide of Latino voters toward Democrats hit battleground after battleground Tuesday, crumbling the coalition that helped carry President Donald Trump to victory just one cycle ago. “This is an earthquake,” Democratic Latino operative Sergio Gonzalez told POLITICO on the sidelines of Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa’s victory party in Austin. “Latinos were angry. They were angry this election.”While the entire country shifted toward Democrats, nowhere shifted as dramatically as predominantly Latino areas. Across the nation Latino voters of all backgrounds — Mexican Americans and Central Americans in the Southwest, heartland and on the West Coast, Puerto Ricans and Dominicans in Pennsylvania, Venezuelans, Puerto Ricans and Cubans in Florida — unhappy with the economy and furious over Trump’s immigration enforcement fled the party in droves.
仅在一个选举周期内，民主党似乎扭转了共和党长达十年逐步在拉美裔选民中取得的进展。
In a single cycle, Democrats appeared to reset Republicans’ gradual decade-long gains with Latino voters.
特朗普前劳工部长洛里·查韦斯-德雷默周二晚在接受采访时表示：“在2024年历史性地支持特朗普总统的拉美裔选民……不得不做出艰难的改变，因为他们的薪资增长速度和幅度远远不够。”“而共和党在这方面已无路可走。”这场地震的震中在得克萨斯州，那里投票率激增——尤其是年轻的首次投票拉美裔选民——帮助民主党横扫得州的全州范围公职，这是自1994年以来民主党首次赢得得州任何全州公职。共和党仅赢得了他们通过选区划分操纵的五个众议院席位中的一个。
Latino voters who “broke for President Trump in historical numbers [in 2024] … had to make a hard change because their paycheck wasn't moving fast and far enough for them,” said Trump’s former Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer in an interview Tuesday night. “And Republicans ran out of runway on that.”The epicenter of the earthquake was Texas, where a turnout surge — especially among younger first-time Latino voters — helped Democrats sweep Texas’ statewide offices — the first time since 1994 they’ve won any at all. Republicans won only one of the five House seats they had gerrymandered.
“我们今天看到的是一次政治重组，”民主党众议员亨利·奎亚尔周二晚在一个新划分的选区以30个百分点的优势大胜，而两年前特朗普曾在该选区以两位数优势获胜。他说道。
“What we're seeing today is a political realignment,” said Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who romped to a 30-point victory Tuesday night in a newly redrawn district Trump carried by double digits two years ago.
“共和党只是在‘租用’西班牙裔选票，却像拥有它一样执政，”吉安卡洛·索波说，他是共和党战略师，曾主导特朗普2020年在西班牙语社交媒体上走红的竞选洗脑曲。
“Republicans were renting the Hispanic vote — yet governed like they owned it,” said Giancarlo Sopo, the GOP strategist behind Trump’s viral2020 Spanish-language campaign jingle.
但民主党以前也经历过类似情况。时任总统贝拉克·奥巴马和民主党提名人希拉里·克林顿在拉美裔选民中也曾获得同样强劲的支持率，随后特朗普的蓝领民粹主义帮助共和党实现了突破。
But Democrats have been here before. Then President Barack Obama and his Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton posted similarly strong numbers with Latinos, before Trump’s blue-collar populism helped break through for the GOP.
一些民主党人警告，本党不应误读本周的结果，以为拉美裔选民再次成为忠诚的民主党选民。
Some Democrats warn that their party should not misread this week’s results to assume that Latinos are once again loyal Democratic voters.
“今晚的结果本该让两党都吓出一身冷汗，”美国西班牙裔商业委员会总裁兼首席执行官哈维尔·帕洛马雷斯周二表示。“美国民众的耐心快耗尽了，那些总把选票当成无条件忠诚的政客，会发现自己失业了。” 两年前拉美裔选民向右转，是由对通胀的不满以及部分选民对拜登政府边境政策的不满共同推动的。一个周期前的2020年，特朗普在佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州也取得了显著进展。但在特朗普执政下经济困境加剧，加上他强硬的国内移民执法，这次让这些社区大幅回摆。
“Tonight ought to scare the hell out of both political parties,” said Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council, on Tuesday. “Americans are running out of patience, and the politicians who keep mistaking their votes for unconditional loyalty are going to find themselves unemployed." Latinos’ swing right two years ago had been fueled by frustration over inflation combined with some voters’ dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s border policy. A cycle earlier, in 2020, Trump made significant inroads in Florida and Texas as well. But growing economic woes under Trump, combined with his hardline interior immigration enforcement, swung those communities hard this time around.
“在西班牙裔社区，极具侵略性的ICE（美国移民与海关执法局）突袭行动，我认为，将在现代史上留下最黑暗的污点之一，”民主党众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯周二晚告诉《政客》网。他在周二的选举中轻松连任，而特朗普两年前曾在该选区以10个百分点的优势获胜。“美国民众目前正在挣扎，他们今天在投票箱前给予了（共和党）极其沉重的惩罚。”
“In the Hispanic community, the hyper-aggressive ICE raids, I think, will go down as one of the darkest blemishes in modern history,” Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who cruised to reelection Tuesday in a seat Trump had won by 10 points, told POLITICO Tuesday night. “The American people are struggling right now, and and and they delivered a very heavy punishment at the ballot box today.”
根据初步计票结果，西班牙裔占多数的县份向民主党倾斜的幅度超过任何其他类型的地区。得克萨斯州几个西班牙裔人口超过90%的县份，与2024年相比，向民主党倾斜了25个百分点以上。南佛罗里达州西班牙裔占多数的迈阿密-戴德县向民主党倾斜了近20个百分点。如果目前的结果保持不变，上届国会中约一半的10位西班牙裔共和党议员将无法连任，而民主党的西班牙裔党团将显著壮大。
Heavily Latino counties swung more toward Democrats than any other type of place, according to preliminary returns. A handful of counties in Texas that are more than 90 percent Latino swung more than 25 points toward Democrats from 2024, the results show. Latino-majority Miami-Dade County in South Florida swung nearly 20 points. If current results hold, roughly half of the 10 Latino Republicans who served in the last Congress won’t be returning, while Democrats’ Latino caucus will grow significantly.
“我们付出了艰苦努力。早早且频繁地与拉美裔选民交谈，他们正在踊跃投票，”加州民主党众议员琳达·桑切斯告诉《政客》网，她担任国会西班牙裔核心小组BOLD政治行动委员会主席。“他们现在更信任民主党处理经济问题。他们视我们为真正的捍卫者和斗士。”两年前，特朗普在得克萨斯州斯塔尔县——该县属于库亚尔的选区——以58%的得票率获胜，这是一个多世纪以来共和党首次在该县赢得总统选举。周二，民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在那里获得了77%的选票。
“We put in the hard work. Talk to Latino voters early and often, and they're showing up,” Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.), who chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ BOLD PAC, told POLITICO. “They trust Democrats more on the economy now. They see us as real champions and fighters.”Trump won Starr County, Texas — part of Cuellar’s district — with 58 percent of the vote two years ago, the first time in more than a century that a Republican had won a presidential election there. On Tuesday, Democrat James Talarico won 77 percent there.
该县与里奥格兰德河谷的许多其他县一样，长期以来一直支持民主党，但在特朗普时代转向了共和党。现在这一趋势已完全逆转，布朗斯维尔本地人吉娜·伊诺霍萨将成为德克萨斯州加入美国以来的首位西班牙裔州长。“我们称里奥格兰德河谷为风向标已经很长一段时间了，”SOMOS PAC执行主任梅丽莎·莫拉莱斯告诉《政治报》。“但真正从里奥格兰德河谷诞生德克萨斯州首位拉美裔女州长，我认为这本身就是一个风向标，预示着下一代领导层的面貌。”
That county, like many others in the Rio Grande Valley, had long favored Democrats but moved toward the GOP during the Trump era. That’s now all been erased, as Brownsville native Gina Hinojosa will become the first Hispanic governor of Texas since it became a U.S. state. “We've called the RGV a bellwether for so long,” Melissa Morales, the executive director of SOMOS PAC, told POLITICO. “But to actually get the first Latina governor of Texas from the RGV I think is a bellwether in its own of what the next generation of leadership looks like.”
在加利福尼亚州第22国会选区，这是一个位于中央谷地、拉美裔人口约占四分之三的选区，进步派民主党人兰迪·比列加斯以66%对34%领先现任共和党众议员大卫·瓦拉达奥，目前约有三分之二的选票已完成统计。在堪萨斯州的几个拉美裔占多数的农村县——苏厄德县、芬尼县和福特县——特朗普在2024年以30个百分点以上的优势获胜，但民主党参议员候选人亚当·汉密尔顿以微弱优势拿下了这些县。这些县正是秋季早些时候因ICE突袭行动而动荡不安的县份之一。
In California’s 22nd District, a Central Valley district which is roughly three-quarters Latino, progressive Democrat Randy Villegas was leading incumbent GOP Rep. David Valadao 66%-34% with roughly two-thirds of the vote in. A handful of rural majority-Latino counties in Kansas — Seward, Finney and Ford — that Trump had won by more than 30 points in 2024 were narrowly won by Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton. The counties were among those shaken by ICE raids earlier in the fall.
“近期西南堪萨斯州的ICE行动扭转了当地的选民格局，”代表芬尼县的共和党州参议员比尔·克利福德表示。
“Recent ICE activity in southwest Kansas turned around the electorate out here,” said Republican state Sen. Bill Clifford, who represents Finney County.
这些结果证明了那些呼吁加大对拉美裔选民投入的民主党人的主张是正确的。
The results are a vindication for Democrats who’ve been clamoring for more investment into Latino voters.
“我认为这将是对民主党整体的一个警钟：投资于拉美裔外联、沟通和优秀候选人会产生巨大影响，尤其是在你们过去认为是红州的地区，”亚利桑那州民主党联邦参议员鲁本·加列戈周二晚间告诉《政治报》。
“I think this would be a wake-up call to the Democratic Party in general that investing in Latino outreach, communication, and good candidates makes a big difference, especially in areas that you think were considered red back in the day,” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told POLITICO Tuesday night.