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拉丁裔选民助特朗普获胜,如今又助民主党一臂之力Latino voters won it for Trump. They just did the same for the Democrats.

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10月25日,在得克萨斯州韦斯拉科举行的一场中期竞选集会开始前,现场展示了一个西班牙语单词“vote”(投票)。A display of the word “vote” in Spanish before the start of a midterm campaign rally in Weslaco, Texas, on Oct. 25.

周二,民主党在长期难以触及的州取得胜利,得益于一个群体的戏剧性转变,该群体在仅仅两年后就抛弃了共和党。

Democratic wins on Tuesday in states long out of reach came thanks to dramatic shifts among a group who abandoned the GOP after just two years.

圣安东尼奥讯——两年前,民主党遭到拉丁裔选民的全面抛弃,数百万拉丁裔选民投票支持时任总统唐纳德·特朗普和共和党。周二,这些选民对共和党同样给予了残酷的回击。

SAN ANTONIO — Two years ago, Democrats suffered the sting of a sweeping repudiation from Latino voters who voted by the millions for President Donald Trump and the GOP. On Tuesday, those same voters delivered a rebuke just as brutal to Republicans.

这种戏剧性的转变——由对高物价的沮丧以及对特朗普激进移民打压的愤怒所推动——帮助民主党候选人周二在长期难以触及的州取得了历史性的全国性进展。

That dramatic turnaround — fueled by frustration over high prices and anger at Trump’s aggressive immigration crackdown — helped Democratic candidates on Tuesday achieve historic national gains in states long out of reach.

根据皮尤研究中心的数据,拉丁裔选民是一个快速增长的人口群体,占全国合格选民的六分之一。在一些州,民主党通过拉丁裔选民弥补了部分2024年的损失;在其他情况下,他们超越了2018年的历史高点,在首次投票者或不太可能投票的人群中取得了新进展。

Democrats in some states made up some of their losses from 2024 with Hispanic voters, a rapidly growing demographic group that accounts for 1 in 6 eligible voters nationwide, according to the Pew Research Center. In other cases, they surpassed the party’s high-water marks from 2018, gaining new ground among first-time voters or those unlikely to turn out.

堪萨斯州西南部的肉类加工中心以及两年前以大幅优势投票支持共和党的佛罗里达州拉丁裔占多数的县,在多年向右转变后,周二转为蓝色。而在德克萨斯州,更为剧烈的左倾转变助推詹姆斯·塔拉里科和吉娜·希诺霍萨取得了决定性的民主党胜利,两人分别竞选参议员和州长。

Meatpacking hubs in southwest Kansas and majority-Hispanic counties in Florida that voted for Republicans by wide margins two years ago flipped blue after years of moving rightward. And in Texas, an even sharper shift to the left fueled decisive Democratic victories by James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa, who were running for Senate and governor, respectively.

“拉丁裔非常明确地对特朗普和共和党说,‘够了,停止’,反对他们错位的优先事项和违背的承诺,”民主党战略家、专注于拉丁裔选民的研究和民调机构Equis Research的联合创始人斯蒂芬妮·瓦伦西亚说。“这和民主党在2024年得到的‘去你的’是一样的。”特朗普在2024年以五个百分点的优势赢得了全国拉丁裔占多数的县。瓦伦西亚表示,当年驱动拉丁裔转向共和党的那些问题——经济、移民和战争——今年也驱动他们重新回归民主党,这一趋势跨越了不同的西班牙裔族裔起源。

“Latinos very specifically said, ‘Basta, enough,’ to Trump and Republicans and their misplaced priorities and broken promises,” said Stephanie Valencia, a Democratic strategist and co-founder of Equis Research, a research and polling operation focused on Latino voters. “It’s the same ‘F you’ that Democrats got in 2024 as well.”Trump won Latino-majority counties nationwide by five points in 2024. Valencia said that the same issues that drove Latinos toward the GOP that election — the economy, immigration and war — also drove them back to the Democrats this year in a trend that cut across different Hispanic national origins.

拜登总统2024年在美墨边境混乱、高通胀和乌克兰战争问题上举步维艰,她说,而共和党现在因加大驱逐力度、高昂的生活成本以及在伊朗和加沙的不受欢迎的战争而陷入被动。

Where President Joe Biden in 2024 had struggled with chaos at the U.S.-Mexico border, high inflation and the war in Ukraine, she said, the GOP had now been put on the defensive with ramped-up deportations, a high cost of living and unpopular wars in Iran and Gaza.

全国各地,拉美裔公民占投票年龄人口多数的县,向参议院民主党候选人转移了28个百分点,民主党候选人在堪萨斯州等深红州翻转了席位。

Across the country, counties where Latino citizens make up a majority of the voting-age population shifted 28 points toward Democratic Senate candidates, who flipped seats in deep-red states such as Kansas.

这一数字在德克萨斯州甚至达到34个百分点,在边境地区一些拉美裔占多数的南德克萨斯县则更大。里奥格兰德河谷的斯塔尔县向左转移了72个百分点,以超过50个百分点的优势支持塔拉里科,帮助他成为自1988年以来首位在德克萨斯州赢得参议院席位的民主党人。

That jumped to 34 points across Texas and even larger figures in some majority-Hispanic South Texas counties in the borderlands. Starr County in the Rio Grande Valley shifted 72 points to the left to back Talarico by over 50 points, helping drive him to become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Texas since 1988.

拉美裔选民中的这一转变是周二任何人口群体中最为显著的转变之一,尤其引人注目,因为拉美裔选民在最近几个选举周期中一直在稳步远离民主党。

The shift among Latinos, one of the most dramatic for any demographic group on Tuesday, was particularly notable because Latino voters have been moving steadily away from Democrats in recent election cycles.

这一转变也让共和党试图在南德克萨斯州进行选区重划的企图适得其反。共和党领导人划定了五个新的国会选区,原本认为能保住特朗普在拉美裔选民中的得票,但民主党赢得了其中四个席位。

The swing also backfired on Republicans’ attempted gerrymander of South Texas. GOP leaders drew five new congressional districts where they believed they would retain Trump’s gains with Latinos, but Democrats won four of those seats.

曾任共和党竞选顾问、现已离开共和党的迈克·马德里说,民调机构低估了有多少年轻拉美裔会去投票。“这股年轻拉美裔选民浪潮的规模是前所未有的,”他说。

Mike Madrid, a former adviser to Republican campaigns who has since left the GOP, said that pollsters underestimated how many young Latinos would vote. “The size of this young Latino wave is unprecedented,” he said.

但他也警告称,这并非向民主党的重新对齐。相反,他称之为“去对齐”,即大量拉美裔选民表明他们对两大政党都没有严肃的忠诚。

But he cautioned that this isn’t a realignment toward Democrats. Instead, he called it “dealignment,” meaning that a large percentage of Latinos are showing that they have no serious allegiance to either major party.

曾担任特朗普2024年竞选副传播主任的维安卡·罗德里格斯在X上写道,该党必须“对这些选民采取更加积极的态度”。

Vianca Rodriguez, who served as a deputy communications director on Trump’s 2024 campaign, wrote on X that the party must be “much more aggressive” in going after these voters.

“你需要西班牙裔美国人的选票,继续让他们感到疏远正在让我们付出代价,”她说。

“You need the Hispanic American vote and continuing to make them feel alienated is costing us,” she said.

在圣安东尼奥,首次投票的19岁新人安东尼·冈萨雷斯(Anthony Gonzalez)在休假去餐厅工作的间隙,投了自己人生第一票。他对候选人知之甚少,甚至在某些选项上留空。但他确实想支持塔拉齐科。

In San Antonio, first-time voter Anthony Gonzalez, 19, took a break from his restaurant job to cast his first ballot ever. He didn’t know a lot about the candidates and left some blank. But he did want to support Talarico.

“我在网上看到很多视频,很欣赏他的热情,”冈萨雷斯说。“我知道其中有些是宣传,但现在形势确实有点失控。”冈萨雷斯表示,他觉得美国已不是过去那般,或者说不是对像他这样青年所承诺的那般。他最近去理发店,被告知他最喜欢的理发师已被驱逐出境。

“I saw a lot of videos online, and I liked his passion,” Gonzalez said. “I know some of it’s propaganda, but things are just kind of crazy right now.”Gonzalez said he feels like the United States isn’t what it used to be — or at least what it promised to be for young people like him. He recently visited his barbershop and was told his preferred barber had been deported.

前拜登政府工作的移民专家安东妮亚·弗洛雷斯(Andrea Flores)表示,两党都因在拉丁裔选民的问题上处理得当而付出了代价。

Andrea Flores, an immigration expert who worked in the Biden administration, said both parties have now experienced the consequences with Latino voters of getting immigration wrong.

许多南德州的拉丁裔选民表示,他们看到成千上万的移民越过边境后在社区里行走,向人们索要水或指引,这成了让他们反对拜登政府的关键因素。特朗普的大规模驱逐政策让他们转而远离共和党。

Many Latino voters in South Texas cited their experiences seeing thousands of migrants who had crossed the border walk through their neighborhoods, asking people for water or directions, as the issue that turned them against the Biden administration. Trump’s mass deportation agenda had now pushed them away from Republicans.

“2024年和2026年之间的主线是,拉丁裔社区拒绝了联邦移民政策,这些政策在他们的社区中制造了恐惧和混乱,”弗洛雷斯说。

“The through-line between 2024 and 2026 is that Latino communities rejected federal immigration policies that created fear and chaos in their communities,” Flores said.

她指出,2024年7月在休斯顿发生的墨西哥裔人士洛伦索·萨尔加多·阿劳霍(Lorenzo Salgado Araujo)被枪杀的事件,让许多墨西哥裔美国人看到自己正成为日益升级的执法暴力的目标。这名无证移民、三个孩子的父亲在一次交通检查中,因移民与海关执法局(ICE)称其“将车辆当武器”而被警员开枪。

She pointed to the shooting death of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston in July as a moment in which many Mexican Americans could see themselves as the target of the escalating violence of enforcement. The undocumented Mexican father of three was gunned down by ICE officers during a traffic stop in which Immigration and Customs Enforcement alleged he “weaponized” his vehicle.

弗洛雷斯说,萨尔加多·阿劳霍的儿子们以及他们呼吁正义的诉求,体现了许多拉丁裔家庭长期等待国会为亲人创造合法化途径的经历。她表示,如果未能兑现,将导致民主党在未来遭遇剧烈波动。

Salgado Araujo’s sons and their pleas for justice, Flores said, typified the experience of many Latino families who have long waited for Congress to create pathways to legalization for their loved ones. Failing to deliver, she said, will doom Democrats to future dramatic swings.

民主党众议院候选人鲍比·普利多的竞选经理阿贝尔·普拉多表示,他的竞选团队在得克萨斯州南部有意针对西班牙裔选民,以夺回共和党占据的席位。

Abel Prado, the campaign manager for Democratic House candidate Bobby Pulido, said his campaign in South Texas intentionally targeted Hispanic voters to flip a GOP-held seat.

“共和党人误解了执法对经济会造成什么影响,以及会给核家庭的结构带来多大痛苦,”普拉多说。“昨晚你看到的,正是对当你破坏人们最在乎的事情时所发生之事的直接否定。”在堪萨斯州西南部,肉类加工业在过去几十年里吸引了数千名主要来自墨西哥的移民,移民和经济问题的混合影响鼓励了初次投票者和不投票者为民主党投票,该地区非党派组织“新边疆”的组织者亚历杭德罗·兰赫尔-洛佩斯表示。

“Republicans misunderstood what enforcement would do to the economy and the pain it would wreak on the fabric of the nuclear family,” Prado said. “What you saw last night was a direct repudiation of what happens when you disrupt the things that people care about the most.”In southwest Kansas, where the meatpacking industry has drawn thousands of mostly Mexican immigrants in recent decades, a mix of immigration and economic issues encouraged first-time voters and nonvoters to turn out for Democrats, said Alejandro Rangel-Lopez, an organizer in that region with the nonpartisan group New Frontiers.

堪萨斯州苏厄德县是全国所有以西班牙裔为主的县中出现最剧烈转变的县之一,向民主党偏移了52个百分点。

Seward County, Kansas, saw one of the most dramatic shifts of all majority-Hispanic counties nationwide, swinging to Democrats by 52 points.

兰赫尔-洛佩斯表示,来自海地和委内瑞拉的新移民的到来,以及免征小费税的承诺,帮助将拉丁裔选民拉向特朗普。两个月前,道奇城地区发生的几起备受关注的移民逮捕事件又将他们推了回来——同时也动员了年轻选民。

Rangel-Lopez said that the arrival of newer immigrants from Haiti and Venezuela, as well as the promise of no tax on tips, had helped pull Latinos toward Trump. Several highly publicized immigration arrests in the Dodge City area two months ago pushed them away again — and brought out younger voters, too.

“减税和繁荣经济的承诺,以及他们只会带走罪犯的说法——人们意识到那是谎言,”他说。“他们带走的只是去上班的邻居。”拉丁裔的政治倾向往往根据民族或国籍而有显著差异,与西南部以墨西哥裔美国人为主的人群相比,某些群体的转变幅度较小。

“The promise of tax breaks and a great economy, and that they’ll only take out the criminals — people realized that’s a lie,” he said. “They’re taking neighbors that were just going to work.”Latinos’ political orientation often varies sharply based on ethnic or national origin, and some groups saw a less dramatic shift compared with the mostly Mexican American populations in the Southwest.

佛罗里达州拥有加勒比海以及中美洲和南美洲社区,民主党并未完全扭转近期在拉丁裔选民中的失利,但仍设法夺回了一些阵地。

In Florida, home to Caribbean and Central and South American communities, Democrats did not entirely reverse their recent losses among Latinos but still managed to win back some ground.

特朗普在2024年以10个百分点的优势赢得了该州两个拉丁裔占多数的县。今年,在佛罗里达州的美国参议院选举中,迈阿密-戴德县和奥西奥拉县向左转移了19个百分点,转为蓝色。但这还不足以让全州的民主党候选人胜选。

Trump won the state’s two majority-Latino counties by 10 points in 2024. This year, in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, Miami-Dade and Osceola counties shifted left by 19 points, flipping blue. That was not enough to get statewide Democratic candidates over the line.

共和党人也要么赢得了,要么在该州三个西班牙裔占多数选区的紧张竞选中微弱领先,这三个选区都以迈阿密-戴德县为基础。特朗普的大规模驱逐政策让这些席位的现任议员陷入政治两难,正如在南德克萨斯州一样。

Republicans had also either won or were narrowly leading close contests for the state’s three majority-Hispanic districts, all of which are anchored in Miami-Dade County. Trump’s mass deportation polices put the incumbents in those seats in a political bind, as they had in South Texas.

代表迈阿密核心地区、似乎将进入重新计票的众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔,在反对特朗普政府政策时采取了强硬语气,以回应选民的担忧。美联社尚未宣布获胜者,尽管她在周二晚上宣布获胜。

Rep. María Elvira Salazar, who represents the heart of Miami and appeared to be heading to a recount, took a strident tone in opposition to the Trump administration’s policies to echo the concerns of her constituency. The Associated Press has not declared a winner, though she declared victory on Tuesday night.

佛罗里达州的第四个席位,位于奥兰多地区一个波多黎各人占多数的区域,同样悬而未决。民主党众议员达伦·索托的西班牙裔占多数选区已被重新划分,白人选民微弱地成为最大群体。

A fourth Florida seat, in a heavily Puerto Rican slice of the Orlando area, was also still too close to call. Democratic Rep. Darren Soto’s majority-Hispanic seat had been redrawn so that White voters were narrowly the largest group.

80岁的奥兰多居民罗萨尔巴·科尔特斯上月下旬表示,要确保索托留在众议院需要付出大量努力。科尔特斯说,她每天都为索托挨家挨户地拉票。

Rosalba Cortez, an 80-year-old in Orlando, said late last month it would take a lot of work to ensure that Soto remained in the House. Cortez said she went door-knocking for Soto every day.

“每次民主党人不得不把国家交给[共和党人]时,一切都会走下坡路,”她在一场竞选活动中用西班牙语说,“一切都会受损。”至少在今年,这种情绪跨越了地理界限。

“Every time Democrats have to turn over the country to [Republicans], everything goes down,” she said in Spanish at a campaign event. “Everything gets damaged.”At least this year, that sentiment cut across geography.

德克萨斯州斯塔尔县的地方共和党候选人德里克·莱奥·特雷维诺说,他所在的拉丁裔占绝大多数的社区的选民出于对共和党的经济不满而投票给民主党。

Derric Leo Treviño, a local Republican candidate in Starr County, Texas, said voters in his overwhelmingly Latino community voted for Democrats out of economic frustration with the GOP.

尽管特朗普在2024年首次在一个多世纪以来翻转了斯塔尔县,但里奥格兰德河谷的这一地区今年在全国所有西班牙裔占多数的县中,出现了向左转移最剧烈的情况。

Although Trump flipped Starr County in 2024 for the first time in more than a century, this slice of the Rio Grande Valley saw the sharpest shift to the left this year of any majority-Hispanic county nationwide.

特雷维尼奥说,从公立学校抽走资金的学券计划在他的农村社区并不受欢迎。伊朗战争迫使他和其他家庭不得不调整家庭预算,因为油价不断攀升并居高不下。“大家都在抱怨食品、燃料和电力的价格,保守派和自由派都一样,”他说。

Treviño said that school vouchers that took money out of the public schools didn’t play well in his rural community. The war in Iran pushed him and other families to make uncomfortable adjustments to household budgets as gas prices climbed and stayed there. “Everybody is complaining, conservatives and liberals alike, about the price of food and fuel and electricity,” he said.

他说,两年后,那里以及其他地方的拉丁裔选民可能都在进行同样的对话。

In two years, he said, Latino voters there and elsewhere may all be having the same conversation.

“他们投票时考虑的是自己的钱包。你要养家糊口,每一分钱都得掰着花,”特雷维尼奥说。“所以,他们自然会投票给最能帮他们把手头的钱用在刀刃上的人。”阿穆斯自堪萨斯城报道,西德霍姆自华盛顿报道。

“They vote with their pockets. You have a family to take care of and stretch every penny,” Treviño said. “Naturally, they are going to vote for whoever is going to help them do the most with what they’ve got.”Armus reported from Kansas City and Sidhom from Washington.

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