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得州“蓝色浪潮”如何让共和党遭遇重挫How the Texas blue wave came crashing down on Republicans

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得克萨斯州州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨和美国参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科周一在奥斯汀的斯塔布烧烤酒吧出席竞选集会。两位民主党人均在周二赢得各自选战,这是一场蓝色浪潮的一部分,翻转了共和党在孤星州数十年的主导地位。(马特·麦克莱恩/供《华盛顿邮报》)Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa and U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico appear at a campaign rally Monday at Stubb’s Bar-B-Q in Austin. Both Democrats won their races on Tuesday, part of a blue wave that flipped decades of Republican domination in the Lone Star State. (Matt McClain/For

几十年来,胜利始终遥不可及。这一次,民主党受益于强有力的候选人、多年的组织工作,以及唐纳德·特朗普总统的一点“帮助”。

For decades, victory was out of reach. This time, Democrats benefited from strong candidates, years of organizing and a little help from President Donald Trump.

德克萨斯州州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨和联邦参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科周一在奥斯汀的斯塔布斯烧烤餐厅出席竞选集会。两位民主党人周二均赢得选举,成为蓝色浪潮的一部分,终结了共和党在“孤星州”长达数十年的统治。(Matt McClain/For The Washington Post 摄)奥斯汀——三十年来,德克萨斯州一直是民主党政治中的“白鲸”——最难以捉摸的奖杯,令人垂涎却始终够不着。

Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa and U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico appear at a campaign rally Monday at Stubb’s Bar-B-Q in Austin. Both Democrats won their races on Tuesday, part of a blue wave that flipped decades of Republican domination in the Lone Star State. (Matt McClain/For The Washington Post) AUSTIN — For three decades, Texas has been the white whale of Democratic politics — the most elusive of trophies, tantalizingly out of reach.

自1994年以来,在如今超过40%的在世德克萨斯人出生之前,民主党从未赢得过任何一个全州范围的公职。但周二,这个长期处于野党地位的政党横扫了所有这些选战,并夺回了州议会一个议院的控制权,完成了一项在现代政治中极少有、甚至前所未有的壮举。

Not since 1994, before more than 40 percent of living Texans were born, had Democrats won a single statewide office. But on Tuesday, the party so long out of power swept every one of those races and flipped one chamber of the legislature in an epic feat with few if any parallels in modern politics.

“德克萨斯州变蓝了。这句话很难说出口,”参议员特德·克鲁兹——一位可能的2028年总统竞选人,他今年并未出现在德克萨斯州选票上——周三在其播客节目中说。“就目前而言,我是德克萨斯州唯一一位仍在任的全州范围当选共和党官员。这绝非我曾想过会说的话。”

“Texas is blue. That is a hard sentence to utter,” Sen. Ted Cruz — a likely 2028 presidential contender, who was not on Texas ballots this year — said on his podcast Wednesday. “As we sit here today, I am the only statewide elected Republican who remains in Texas. That’s not something I ever thought I would say.”

撼动德克萨斯州的这场板块式变动影响深远。可以说是最具影响力的保守派大本营,德克萨斯州的政策近年来辐射全国——从一项将移民送往民主党执政城市的计划,到一项限制性堕胎法给其他州提供者施加压力,再到一系列拖慢拜登政府步伐的法律挑战。其许多右翼举措被全国红州政府效仿。而其石油和科技亿万富翁为全国保守派竞选和事业提供资金,使其赢得了“德克萨斯州提款机’的绰号。所有这一切似乎即将改变。

The tectonic shift that rattled Texas has far-reaching implications. Arguably the most influential conservative stronghold, Texas policies have rippled across the nation in recent years — from a program that bused migrants into Democratic cities, to a restrictive abortion law that put pressure on providers in other states, to a suite of legal challenges that bogged down the Biden administration. Many of its right-wing initiatives were copied by red-state governments nationwide. And its oil and tech billionaires have funded conservative campaigns and causes around the country, earning it the nickname “The Texas ATM.”

支持者在奥斯汀的选举之夜等待塔拉里科发表胜选演说。(Matt McClain/For The Washington Post)民主党即将上台的政府能否经久耐用仍存疑问。得克萨斯州选民愤怒且不耐烦,但总体上仍保守。如果民主党行事过度,将面临共和党基本盘的反扑,后者已被共和党在社会和文化议题上的煽动性言论激怒。

All of that seems about to change. Supporters await a victory speech by Talarico on election night in Austin. (Matt McClain/For The Washington Post) The durability of Democrats’ incoming government does remain in question. Texas voters are angry and impatient, yet still broadly conservative.

支持者在奥斯汀的选举之夜等待塔拉里科发表胜选演讲。(马特·麦克莱恩/供《华盛顿邮报》)Supporters await a victory speech by Talarico on election night in Austin. (Matt McClain/For The Washington Post)

不过,目前至少部分共和党人愿意给他们一个机会。78岁的保守派天主教徒凯西·蒙哥马利表示,她分裂投票,基于道德理由和为应对飙升的住房成本,投给了民主党的参议员候选人。蒙哥马利希望在或许是现代史上最具分裂性的全州选举之后,得克萨斯人能共同努力,改善他们热爱的这片土地。

Should Democrats overreach, they risk backlash from a Republican base already primed by the GOP’s incendiary rhetoric on social and cultural issues. For now, however, at least some Republicans are willing to give them a chance. Kathy Montgomery, 78, a conservative Catholic, said she split her ticket and voted for Democrats’ Senate candidate on moral grounds and to address skyrocketing housing costs.

“你必须放下偏见,放下一些你成长过程中形成的观念,敞开心扉接纳他人,”她说。“我们不总能观点一致,但要给他们留出空间,做他们自己。”

Montgomery hopes that in the wake of perhaps the most divisive statewide election in modern history, Texans can work together to improve the place they love. “You have to let go of prejudices, some of what you grew up with, and let people into your heart,” she said.

当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨承诺解决民主党和共和党选民都视为优先事项的问题,包括大力投资公立学校和暂停数据中心开发。但民主党在数十年来首次执政时,仍将面临重大的结构性挑战,从共和党控制的参议院的抗拒,到民主党在操作政府机器方面严重缺乏肌肉记忆。

“We’re not always going to see eye to eye, but give them room to be who they are.”Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has promised to address issues Democratic and Republican voters both cited as being priorities, including investing heavily in public schools and pausing data center development.

“好消息是,因为共和党执政太烂,摆在他们面前有太多速胜的机会:提高最低工资、扩大医疗补助、为地方学校提供资金,”前联邦众议员贝托·奥罗克说,他在2018年参议院竞选中险败给克鲁兹,唤醒了本党复兴的可能性。“如果人们赚得更多、能看得起病、孩子能上更好的学校,他们会丰厚地回报民主党。”

But Democrats will still face major structural challenges in governing for the first time in decades, from the balkiness of a Republican-controlled Senate to the sheer lack of Democratic muscle memory when it comes to operating the machinery of government. “The good news is because of how badly Republicans have governed, there are so many quick victories in front of them: raising the minimum wage, expanding Medicaid, funding local schools,” said former congressman Beto O’Rourke, whose near miss in his 2018 Senate race against Cruz awakened his party to the possibility of resurrection.

在这场竞选季开始时,在得克萨斯州全州范围内的竞选中发生的这一切,对两党大多数经验丰富的党派人士来说,似乎都是难以想象的,更不用说不可避免了。参议员约翰·科宁和州长格雷格·阿博特这两位拥有经证实的跨党派吸引力的常青人物,原本预计将领衔选票。民主党在2024年也表现不佳,该党在当年的总统选举中表现下滑,这是自2012年以来的首次。

“If people earn more, can see a doctor and their kids are going to better schools, they will richly reward Democrats.”At the outset of this campaign season, none of what happened in Texas’s statewide races seemed imaginable, much less inevitable, to most seasoned partisans on either side. Sen. John Cornyn and Gov. Greg Abbott, two fixtures with proven bipartisan appeal, were expected to lead the ballot.

奥斯汀市中心的一幅壁画纪念赋予女性投票权的第十九修正案。(马特·麦克莱恩/《华盛顿邮报》)然而,共和党参议院初选让民主党人欣喜若狂——他们得知将面对一个背负多年包袱的对手。连任四届的现任议员科宁输给了丑闻缠身的司法部长肯·帕克斯顿,后者在唐纳德·特朗普总统的背书下以压倒性优势获胜。共和党控制的立法机构曾于2023年因贿赂和腐败弹劾帕克斯顿,而他的妻子、一位州参议员,正以她所说的“圣经依据”为由与他离婚。

Democrats had also performed poorly in 2024, with the party’s performance decreasing in the presidential race that year for the first time since 2012. A mural in downtown Austin commemorates the 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote. (Matt McClain/For The Washington Post) The GOP Senate primary left Democrats elated, however — they learned they would face an opponent loaded down with years of baggage. Four-term incumbent Cornyn lost to scandal-scarred Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was carried to a landslide victory by an endorsement from President Donald Trump.

奥斯汀市中心的一幅壁画纪念赋予女性投票权的第十九修正案。(马特·麦克莱恩/供《华盛顿邮报》)A mural in downtown Austin commemorates the 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote. (Matt McClain/For The Washington Post)

“肯·帕克斯顿可能是我有生以来最糟糕的主要政党候选人,而我已经不年轻了,”长期民主党操盘手马特·安格尔说,他在得克萨斯州政治中的工作可以追溯到20世纪80年代。

The Republican legislature had impeached Paxton in 2023 for bribery and corruption, and his wife, a state senator, is divorcing him for what she said were “biblical grounds.”

与此同时,民主党人推出了一位被广泛认为最有可能让他们具备竞争力的候选人:面孔新鲜的州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科,他是一位引用经文的长老会神学院毕业生,传递着振奋人心、团结一致的讯息,这为他带来了全国关注、大量竞选捐款以及共和党人跨党投票的潜力。

“Ken Paxton is probably the worst major-party candidate in my lifetime, and I’m old,” said Matt Angle, a longtime Democratic operative whose work in Texas politics dates to the 1980s.

如果说塔拉里科为同票竞选的其他民主党人制造了顺风气流,那么由特朗普领导的共和党则要为拖累本阵营的暗流负责。在全州各地的竞选中,选民表示物价上涨——源于特朗普的关税政策和与伊朗的对抗——促使他们转向支持民主党。而特朗普的移民政策搅乱了众议院选战,打乱了州共和党通过选区划分试图确保胜利的部署。

Democrats, meanwhile, elevated a candidate widely seen as giving them their best shot at being competitive: fresh-faced state Rep. James Talarico, a scripture-quoting Presbyterian seminary graduate with an uplifting, unifying message that brought national attention, scads of campaign contributions and the potential for GOP crossover votes. If Talarico created a jet stream for other Democrats on the ballot, Republicans, led by Trump, were responsible for the undertow that dragged their side down. In races across the state, voters cited rising prices — brought on by Trump’s tariffs and war with Iran — as pushing them toward Democrats.

上个月,塔拉里科在德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校参加竞选活动后,在一家Whataburger餐厅向支持者致意。(塔米尔·卡利法/为《华盛顿邮报》拍摄)在里奥格兰德河谷,2024年选民曾向特朗普倾斜,如今西班牙裔投票率激增,部分原因是对移民大扫荡波及勤劳守法民众感到恐慌。位于该州最南端的斯塔尔县,拉丁裔人口接近100%,与两年前相比出现了72个百分点向民主党倾斜的巨大转变,这是全美最大的边际变化。然而,民主党的胜利虽看似突如其来,实则酝酿多年。

And Trump’s immigration policies upended House races in districts state Republicans had gerrymandered to try to ensure victory. Talarico greets supporters at a Whataburger last month after a campaign event at the University of Texas at Austin. (Tamir Kalifa/For The Washington Post) In the Rio Grande Valley, where voters drifted toward Trump in 2024, Hispanic turnout surged, in part because of alarm over immigration sweeps that caught up hardworking, law-abiding people. Starr County, near the bottom tip of the state, where Latinos are close to 100 percent of the population, saw a 72-point stampede toward Democrats from two years ago, the nation’s largest margin shift.

上个月,塔拉里科在得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的一场竞选活动后,在一家Whataburger餐厅与支持者打招呼。(塔米尔·卡利法/供《华盛顿邮报》)Talarico greets supporters at a Whataburger last month after a campaign event at the University of Texas at Austin. (Tamir Kalifa/For The Washington Post)

“德克萨斯州不是一夜之间背离民主党的,民主党也不可能一夜之间赢下它。”德克萨斯州民主党主席肯德尔·斯卡德在选举日前的周末说道,他在以往屡战屡败的历史衬托下审慎地衡量着自己的乐观情绪。

Yet as sudden as it may have seemed, the Democrats’ victory was years in the making. “Texas didn’t move away from Democrats overnight. Democrats aren’t going to win it overnight,” Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder said the weekend before Election Day, measuring his optimism against a history of losses.

党派亟需解决的一个问题:即便是过去最好的表现,也是在真空中取得的。

One problem the party needed to correct: Even its best performances in the past had been conducted in a vacuum.

以2018年的险胜为基础——当时奥罗克距离击败克鲁兹仅差三个百分点——州民主党悄然开始搭建基础设施,旨在推翻共和党对州政权的垄断。

Building off the near-wins of 2018, when O’Rourke came within three percentage points of defeating Cruz, state Democrats quietly began building infrastructure to topple Republicans’ monopoly on state power.

尽管奥罗克令人难忘地走遍了德克萨斯州所有254个县,深入哪怕是最铁杆的红色地区寻求支持,但他的竞选运作基本上是独立封闭的。与此同时,共和党调动其州议员大军作为代理人,集结声援克鲁兹。

Though O’Rourke memorably visited all 254 Texas counties, reaching out to even the most ruby-red parts of the state, his operation was largely self-contained. Republicans, meanwhile, deployed their army of state lawmakers as surrogates to rally to Cruz’s defense.

2024年大选失利后,民主党策略师聚首,拟定了一份可信候选人名单,这些人甚至能在得克萨斯州最深红的地区参选。奥罗克、前州长候选人温迪·戴维斯、2024年参议员提名人科林·阿尔雷德以及其他州内知名民主党人,连同得克萨斯多数派政治行动委员会(Texas Majority PAC,支持得州民主党竞选),展开了激进招募——并成功为每一个州级和联邦职位都找到了竞争者。

Coming out of the 2024 losses, Democratic strategists gathered to create a slate of credible candidates who could run in even the most deeply Republican parts of Texas. O’Rourke, former gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis, 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred and other Democrats well known in the state, as well as the Texas Majority PAC (which backs Texas Democratic campaigns), began aggressive recruitment — and were able to put up contenders for every state and federal office.

随后,40多年来首次,全州候选人开展了协调竞选,整合资源,深入得州每个角落。该党培训了1000多名分散在农村地区的选区主席。

Then, for the first time in over 40 years, candidates across the state operated in a coordinated campaign, pooling resources and hitting every corner of Texas. The party trained more than 1,000 precinct chairs spread out across rural areas.

“要想在全州范围内获胜,我们需要在这些地区少输一些。要想少输,我们就必须真正开展实质性的竞选活动,”得克萨斯多数派政治行动委员会执行主任、奥罗克竞选团队校友凯瑟琳·费舍尔说。“即使像詹姆斯这样资源丰富的候选人,也无法投入足够资金,覆盖200个农村县,真正产生影响。”

“In order to win statewide, we need to lose by less in some of these areas. And in order to lose by less, we need to really legitimately campaign,” said Katherine Fischer, executive director of Texas Majority PAC and an alumna of the O’Rourke campaign. “Even a candidate like James, who’s so well resourced, can’t spend enough money to invest in 200 rural counties to really make a dent.”

一名站在圣安东尼奥塔拉里科集会现场外的人,讽刺埃隆·马斯克与塔拉里科的共和党对手肯·帕克斯顿之间的金钱关系。(马特·麦克莱恩/为《华盛顿邮报》拍摄)得克萨斯州拥有全美最高的黑人人口。美国众议员克里斯蒂安·梅内菲在休斯顿市中心的一些历史悠久的黑人教堂与塔拉里科一同竞选时表示,该党也专门努力争取黑人选民。

A person outside a Talarico rally in San Antonio skewers the financial relationship between Elon Musk and Talarico’s Republican opponent, Ken Paxton. (Matt McClain/For The Washington Post) Texas has the highest Black population of any state. And U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee of Houston, as he campaigned with Talarico in downtown Houston this past weekend at some of the city’s historically Black churches, said the party also made a concerted effort to reach out to Black voters.

在圣安东尼奥一场塔拉里科集会外,一人讽刺了埃隆·马斯克与塔拉里科的共和党对手肯·帕克斯顿之间的金钱关系。(马特·麦克莱恩/供《华盛顿邮报》)A person outside a Talarico rally in San Antonio skewers the financial relationship between Elon Musk and Talarico’s Republican opponent, Ken Paxton. (Matt McClain/For The Washington Post)

“吉娜·伊诺霍萨和詹姆斯·塔拉里科深入黑人社区,民众非常感激,”梅内菲说,并补充道,“他们在和所有人交谈。而共和党没有这么做。”

“Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico have been out in the Black communities, and people have been really appreciative,” Menefee said, adding, “They are talking to everybody. And the Republicans are not doing that.”

展望未来,费舍尔表示,计划是在该州深红地区也建立起党的存在感,以帮助确保在未来的竞选中获胜,即使没有共和党方面有缺陷的候选人这一“礼物”相助。

Going forward, Fischer said the plan is to build up the party’s presence even in deep-red parts of the state, to help secure its wins in future races even without the gift of flawed candidates on the Republican side.

民主党策略师安格尔认为,该州共和党将继续难以找到具有跨群体吸引力的候选人。共和党初选越来越类似于“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)的净化仪式,将来自党内最右翼的宠儿推向前台,其中许多人得到特朗普的支持。这导致了像帕克斯顿这样在普选中举步维艰的候选人的崛起,安格尔表示,这一趋势没有停止的迹象。

Angle, the Democratic operative, believes Republicans in the state will continue to struggle to find candidates with crossover appeal. GOP primaries have increasingly resembled MAGA purification rites that elevate darlings from the furthest-right reaches of the party, many of them backed by Trump. This has led to the rise of candidates like Paxton, who struggle in a general election, and Angle said the trend has no signs of stopping.

“体面、正常的商业保守派、正常的保守派共和党——仅仅是这个概念就是怀旧了,”安格尔说。“那已经一去不复返了。”

“The notion of a buttoned-down, normal business conservative, normal conservative Republican Party — just the notion of it is nostalgia,” Angle said. “That’s gone.”

与此同时,民主党人表示,他们意识到选民对切实成果的不耐烦,以及德克萨斯州参议院仍由共和党占多数所施加的限制。

At the same time, Democrats say they are aware of the impatience of voters who elected them for tangible results, as well as the limitations imposed by the Texas Senate, which still has a Republican majority.

奥古斯特,欣霍萨在得克萨斯州基林向选民问好。(乔尔·安赫尔·华雷兹摄/为《华盛顿邮报》)一旦州议会在一月复会,梅内菲预计民主党将迅速行动,议程将包括“变革性”提案,以扩大平价医疗保健覆盖面,或许还会提高最低工资,而在文化战争议题上花费的时间将大幅减少。

Hinojosa greets voters in Killeen, Texas, in August. (Joel Angel Juarez/For The Washington Post) Once the state legislature returns in January, Menefee expects Democrats to move quickly, and for the agenda to include “transformative” proposals to expand affordable health care and perhaps raise the minimum wage, with far less time spent on culture war issues.

8月,伊诺霍萨在得克萨斯州基林与选民打招呼。(乔尔·安赫尔·华雷斯/供《华盛顿邮报》)Hinojosa greets voters in Killeen, Texas, in August. (Joel Angel Juarez/For The Washington Post)

来自休斯顿的州众议员吉恩·吴,现任众议院民主党核心小组主席,表示赞同。

State Rep. Gene Wu of Houston, who leads the House Democratic Caucus, agreed.

“公众愤怒的焦点终于与民主党愤怒的焦点一致了,”吴说,并补充道,得克萨斯州共和党“想谈变装皇后,我们要谈就业。”

“What the public is mad about is finally in line with what Democrats are mad about,” Wu said, adding that while Texas Republicans “want to talk about drag queens, we’re going to talk about jobs.”

吴说,现在,“我们可以不再做全国的笑柄了。”或者换种说法:得克萨斯人的目光正注视着民主党人,他们希望能兑现承诺。

Now, Wu said, “we can stop being the laughingstock of the nation.”Or, put another way: The eyes of Texas are upon Democrats, and they hope they can deliver.

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