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中期选举大胜后民主党可发起的五场医疗保健之争5 healthcare fights Democrats could take on after midterms sweep

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尽管在共和党总统执政期间,“全民医保”不太可能成为法律,但它仍将是许多民主党人的目标。埃里克·麦格雷戈 / LightRocket 通过盖蒂图片社“Medicare for All” will remain a goal for many Democrats, even if the proposal is unlikely to become law under a Republican president. Erik McGregor / LightRocket via Getty

民主党在中期选举中的胜利可能对美国人的医疗保健产生重大影响,从人们为健康保险和处方药支付多少费用,到他们能获得什么样的保障,据健康政策专家和前白宫顾问称。前提是民主党和唐纳德·特朗普总统愿意合作。

Democrats’ victories in the midterm elections could have a major impact on Americans’ healthcare, from how much people pay for health insurance and prescription drugs to what coverage is available to them, according to health policy experts and former White House advisers. If the Democrats and President Donald Trump are willing to work together, that is.

随着控制众议院和参议院,民主党将掌握重要筹码,以恢复加强版《平价医疗法案》补贴、扭转对医疗补助的削减,并推动他们所说的将使医疗保健更负担得起的变革。他们还可以利用监督权力审查特朗普政府的卫生政策,包括由卫生部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪主导的政策。

新的民主党多数派将包括三位直言批评卫生部长的医生,他们分别是南卡罗来纳州当选参议员安妮·安德鲁斯、密歇根州当选参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德和加利福尼亚州当选众议员理查德·潘。

With control of the House and Senate, Democrats will hold significant leverage to restore the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, reverse cuts to Medicaid and push for changes they say would make healthcare more affordable. They can also use their oversight powers to scrutinize the Trump administration’s health policies, including those led by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The new Democratic majority will include three doctors who have been vocal in their criticism of the health secretary, including Senator-elect Annie Andrews of South Carolina, Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan, and Representative-elect Richard Pan of California.

在竞选期间,安德鲁斯批评肯尼迪彻底改革联邦疫苗接种计划并宣扬医疗错误信息,称他是公共卫生的“死对头”。

During her campaign, Andrews criticized Kennedy for overhauling the federal vaccine schedule and promoting medical disinformation, calling him an “archnemesis” to public health.

“过去两年里,我们看到了医疗保健体制的真正变革,这造成了巨大损害,”匹兹堡大学卫生政策与管理助理教授米兰达·亚弗说。“我们完全可以预期,将会有大量监督调查深入这些变革,并揭示这些危害。”

“We’ve seen a real transformation of the healthcare state over the last two years and it’s been immensely damaging,” said Miranda Yaver, an assistant professor of health policy and management at the University of Pittsburgh. “We can absolutely expect to see a lot of oversight into these changes and unpacking what those harms are.”

但将这些政策转化为法律并不容易。任何立法仍需特朗普签署,这为医疗保健的未来设定了潜在的冲突。

But turning those policies into law won’t be easy. Any legislation would still need Trump’s signature, setting up a potential clash over the future of healthcare.

在周二选举前,特朗普表示,如果民主党控制国会,他将把自己定位为“否决先生”。周三,他说他“很可能”会与民主党相处融洽。

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, Trump said he’d brand himself “Mr. Veto” if Democrats took control of Congress. On Wednesday, he said he’ll “probably” get along with the Democrats.

“我是这样看待这件事的:是‘狩猎’还是‘耕作’,”约翰·巴克特说。他是拜登政府时期的前白宫政策顾问,当时负责药品定价事务。“下一届国会,将会有大量的‘耕作’。‘狩猎’是指追求一击致命。如果那些(大动作)能通过,大概率不会发生(在特朗普执政下)。但你能播种、垦地、为长远增长做准备吗?能。”以下是民主党可能在医疗保健方面采取行动的五种方式。

“The way I think about this is hunting versus farming,” said John Barkett, a former White House policy adviser under the Biden administration, where he covered drug pricing. “Next Congress, there’s going to be a lot of farming. Hunting, you go for a big kill. If those pass, probably not going to happen [with Trump]. But can you sow seeds and prepare land for growth over time? Yes.”Here are five ways Democrats could take on healthcare.

ACA补贴众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯曾表示,如果民主党在2027年夺回国会控制权,恢复已过期的加强版ACA税收抵免将是主要目标之一。当这些联邦补贴在去年底到期时,数百万人的月保费账单翻倍甚至翻三倍——迫使约300万人完全放弃了保险覆盖。其他人则转向了保费更便宜但覆盖范围更差的计划。预计2027年成本将进一步上涨。

ACA subsidies House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said restoring the expired enhanced ACA tax credits would be a primary objective for Democrats if they took control of Congress in 2027. When those federal subsidies expired at the end of last year, millions saw their monthly premium bills double or even triple — forcing about 3 million people to walk away from their coverage altogether. Others switched to cheaper plans that offered worse coverage. In 2027, costs are expected to rise even more.

ACA保费连续第二年出现两位数增长,较低的参保人数与不断上升的医疗成本相叠加,导致一些大型保险公司退出市场。KFF(一个非党派医疗政策研究组织)健康政策执行副总裁拉里·莱维特表示,如果民主党设法与特朗普谈判达成协议以恢复加强版补贴,减免措施可追溯至2027年初。这意味着任何支付了较高保费的人都将以退款形式拿回这笔钱。

ACA premiums are jumping by double digits for the second year in a row, and a mix of lower enrollment and rising healthcare costs is driving some major insurers to pull out of the market. Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group, said that if Democrats manage to negotiate a deal with Trump to restore the enhanced subsidies, the relief could be backdated to the beginning of 2027. That means anyone who paid the higher premiums would get that money back as a refund.

“这既能增加参保人数,又能为现有ACA参保人提供成本减免,”他说。奥巴马政府时期的健康政策特别顾问以西结·伊曼纽尔博士表示,他支持民主党推动重新实施ACA补贴,前提是他们能找到资金来源,且不忽视其他美国人不断上涨的保险成本。

“That could both increase enrollment and provide cost relief to current ACA enrollees,” he said. Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a special adviser for health policy during the Obama administration, said he supports Democrats pursuing reimplementing ACA subsidies as long as they can find the money for it and they don’t lose sight of rising insurance costs for other Americans.

“大选大胜的危险之一在于,人们会变得自满,过度越权,未能兑现民众真正关心的承诺,”他说。“一半美国人通过雇主资助的保险获得医保。”

“One of the dangers of big election victories is people get cocky and they overreach and they fail to deliver on what people actually care about,” he said. “Half of all Americans get their insurance through employer-sponsored insurance.”

医疗补助削减 特朗普“宏伟美好法案”下的医疗补助削减,尤其是医疗补助工作要求,预计也将引发民主党强烈反弹。预计工作要求将导致数百万人失去保障——并非因为缺乏就业,而是由于繁重的文书工作和其他繁文缛节。多个州已在全国性的1月1日截止日期前开始实施相关要求。上周,波士顿的一名联邦法官对政府的工作规则造成打击,叫停了医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心的一项政策,该政策本将强制“身体虚弱”的患者和残疾人证明其“严重受损”,无法遵守新的工作强制令。法官还给予各州额外六个月时间实施较宽松的版本。

Medicaid cuts The Medicaid cuts under Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” especially the Medicaid work requirements, are also expected to draw significant pushback from Democrats. The work requirements are expected to strip coverage from millions of people — not for lack of employment, but due to burdensome paperwork and other red tape. A number of states have already started implementing the requirements ahead of the national Jan. 1 deadline. Last week, a federal judge in Boston dealt a blow to the administration’s work rules, blocking a policy from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services that would have forced “medically frail” patients and people with disabilities to prove they are too “significantly impaired” to adhere to the new work mandates. The judge also granted states an additional six months to implement the more lenient version.

莱维特表示,特朗普必定会否决任何撤销医疗补助削减的法案。“随后,民主党人与特朗普之间的博弈将开始,以确定究竟能通过何种医疗保健法案,”莱维特说。也有可能多个州最终会扩大医疗补助。有十个州未采纳《平价医疗法案》下的全面医疗补助扩张。其中包括佐治亚州、得克萨斯州和威斯康星州,这三州周二选出了民主党州长,以及堪萨斯州,该州竞选结果仍过于胶着难以判定。

Levitt said Trump is bound to veto any bills rolling back Medicaid cuts. “Then the game of chess between Democrats and Trump will begin to figure out what healthcare can actually get enacted,” Levitt said. It’s also possible a number of states could finally expand Medicaid. Ten states have not adopted the full Medicaid expansion under the ACA. That includes Georgia, Texas and Wisconsin, which elected Democratic governors on Tuesday, alongside Kansas, where the race remains too close to call.

亚弗尔持怀疑态度,指出特朗普的“宏伟美好法案”取消了鼓励各州采纳扩张的财政激励。“我认为我们绝对会看到增加医疗补助覆盖面的努力,”她说。

Yaver was skeptical, noting that Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” ended financial incentives that encouraged states to adopt the expansion. “I think we’re absolutely going to see efforts to increase Medicaid access,” she said.

“我不知道在没有增加财政激励的情况下,医疗补助扩展会是什么样子。”

“I just don’t know what Medicaid expansion looks like without the increased financial incentive.”

负担能力与企业贪婪伊曼纽尔表示,民主党人可能会在降低医疗成本(尤其是处方药价格)的努力上与特朗普找到共同点。特朗普在其第二任期内将降低药价作为优先事项,通过其折扣处方药网站 TrumpRx 以及“最惠国”药品定价协议来推进。民主党人可以推动在这些努力的基础上继续建设,同时寻求其他他们表示能让药物更负担得起的变革。

Affordability and corporate greed Democrats could find common ground with Trump on efforts to lower healthcare costs, particularly prescription drug prices, Emanuel said. Trump has made lowering drug costs a priority during his second term, through his discount prescription drug website TrumpRx and his “most favored nation” drug pricing deals. Democrats could push to build on those efforts, while pursuing other changes they say would make drugs more affordable.

“我认为你们很有可能与他达成一项非常重大的协议,”伊曼纽尔说。

“I think there is probably a very big agreement you could reach with him,” Emanuel said.

但巴凯特表示,民主党人可能找不到他们想要的那种“交易达成者”。“记住,特朗普在药价方面做的大事是签署了这些没人见过的、与药企达成的协议,甚至不清楚药企是否因这些协议受损,”巴凯特说。

But Democrats may not find the dealmaker they want in Trump, Barkett said. “Remember, the big thing Trump has done on drug prices is sign these deals that no one has seen with drug manufacturers, and it’s not even clear the drug manufacturers were hurt by those deals,” Barkett said.

亚弗表示,民主党人与特朗普合作的另一种方式是通过立法限制“事先授权”的使用,这是一种保险公司使用的成本控制工具,要求患者在接受某些治疗前获得批准。医生和患者指责该工具延误了必要的治疗。特朗普政府已经采取行动打击这一做法。

Yaver said another way Democrats could work with Trump is through legislation limiting the use of prior authorization, a cost-cutting tool insurers use that requires patients to get approval before receiving certain treatments. The tool has been blamed by doctors and patients for delaying necessary care. The Trump administration has already made moves to crack down on the practice.

“这不仅产生了两党支持,而且在州一级获得了一致支持,”她说。

“That is generating not just bipartisan support but unanimous support at the state level,” she said.

在不断上涨的医院护理成本以及药房福利管理公司(PBM)问题上,也可能出现两党联手施压的局面。PBM 作为中间方代表保险公司和雇主谈判药价和回扣。研究显示其做法可能推高医疗成本,因此 PBM 面临批评。

There could also be a bipartisan pushback on the rising cost of hospital care as well as pharmacy benefit managers, which act as middlemen to negotiate drug prices and rebates on behalf of insurers and employers. The PBMs have faced criticisms after research has shown their practices can drive up the cost of healthcare.

对政府的调查随着控制国会委员会,民主党人将拥有举行听证会、要求提供文件和传唤政府官员作证的权力。

Investigations into the administration With control of congressional committees, Democrats will have power to hold hearings, demand documents and subpoena administration officials to testify.

伊曼纽尔表示,肯尼迪很可能面临民主党发起的调查,涉及他在疫苗问题上的举措,包括彻底改组疾控中心的疫苗咨询小组、更改联邦疫苗接种计划,以及采取措施修改联邦疫苗伤害赔偿计划。这位卫生部长还因美国麻疹病例回升而面临广泛批评和指责。今年已有超过4850例麻疹病例,是至少30年来的最高数字。“其中一些确实需要发生,因为这必须停止,”伊曼纽尔说。

Emanuel said Kennedy is likely to face Democratic probes over his moves on vaccines, including overhauling the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel, changing the federal vaccine schedule and taking steps to alter the federal Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. The health secretary has also faced widespread criticism and blame for the resurgence of measles in the U.S. This year, there have been more than 4,850 measles cases, the highest number in at least 30 years. “Some of that does need to happen because that has to stop,” Emanuel said.

巴克特表示,这些调查可能对民主党有利,因为它们会分散特朗普政府的注意力,并可能冻结任何新政策。“这会占用他们的时间,”他说。“而且他们遇到的一切、发现的一切,都可能成为[2028年]更多的竞选素材。”

Barkett said the investigations might play to the Democrats’ advantage by distracting the Trump administration and potentially freezing any new policies. “It takes up their time,” he said. “And everything they encounter, whatever they uncover, could be more campaign fodder [for 2028].” ‘Medicare for All’ “Medicare for All” will remain a central goal for many Democrats, even if the proposal is unlikely to become law under a Republican president.

“全民医保” “全民医保”将继续是许多民主党人的核心目标,即使该提案在共和党总统执政下不太可能成为法律。最受欢迎的版本将建立一个由政府运营、覆盖所有美国人的健康保险计划。“我不是‘全民医保’的坚定倡导者,但目前唯一的方案就是‘全民医保’,”伊曼纽尔说。“我们需要有更多方案,而我们从现在到2028年初都有时间制定方案。”

The most popular version of the proposal would establish a government-run health insurance program covering all Americans. “I’m not a big advocate of ‘Medicare for All,’ but at the moment, the only plan out there is ‘Medicare for All,’” Emanuel said. “We need to have more plans, and we have between now and the start of 2028 to have plans.”

尽管如此,提出“全民医保”法案并推动表决,可以让支持者有机会阐述主张,并为民主党若在2028年赢得白宫后对医疗体系进行更广泛的改革积累势头。这属于“更多是象征性的范畴,因为正如我们所知,唐纳德·特朗普将会否决重大的进步行动,”亚弗说。

Still, introducing a “Medicare for All” bill and pushing for a vote could give supporters a chance to make their case and build momentum for a broader overhaul of the healthcare system if Democrats win the White House in 2028. That falls under “the more symbolic category, because as we know, Donald Trump is going to veto big progressive actions,” Yaver said.

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