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民主党大胜引发共和党对塞缪尔·阿利托及最高法院未来的焦虑Democratic wave prompts GOP anxiety over Samuel Alito and future of Supreme Court

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周二中期选举中民主党惨败,引发右翼对最高法院未来的立即不安,并引发共和党人对大法官塞缪尔·阿利托和克拉伦斯·托马斯决定留任而非退休的新一轮焦虑。

The Democratic rout in Tuesday’s midterm elections sparked an immediate sense of unease on the right about the future of the Supreme Court and a new round of Republican anxiety over decisions by Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas to stick it out rather than step down.

周三,多位熟悉这两位保守派大法官的人士在获准匿名以便自由发言的条件下告诉CNN,他们不认为这两人会因选举结果而离开法院。

Multiple sources close to both conservative justices who were granted anonymity to speak freely told CNN on Wednesday said they did not anticipate either man leaving the court because of the election results.

但虽然这可能会平息关于在国会“跛脚鸭”会议期间确认大法官的猜测,但仍会让一些法律保守派人士在未来多年内感到不安。

But while that may tamp down speculation about an attempt to confirm a justice during a lame duck session of Congress, it will nevertheless leave some legal conservatives on edge for years.

“我希望克拉伦斯·托马斯和萨姆·阿利托拥有历史上最好的健康保险计划,”支持保守派司法提名的一个团体的高级法律顾问乔什·哈默周三在社交媒体上发帖称。

“I hope Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito have historically great health insurance plans,” Josh Hammer, senior counsel to a group that helps support conservative judicial nominations, posted to social media on Wednesday.

随着民主党将夺取参议院的局势日益明朗,一些共和党人开始公开担忧,前总统唐纳德·特朗普巩固最高法院6比3保守派多数席位的机会已经从指间溜走。他们指出,阿利托76岁,托马斯78岁,到下一位共和党总统在拥有共和党参议院的情况下有机会提名最高法院大法官时,两人可能已年过八旬。

As it became clear Democrats would capture the Senate, some Republicans began to openly fret that President Donald Trump’s opportunity to shore up the Supreme Court’s 6-3 conservative majority had slipped from reach. They noted that Alito, 76, and Thomas, 78, may be in their 80s by the time the next GOP president has a chance at a high court nomination with a Republican Senate.

华盛顿特区 - 11月02日:美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在发表讲话后离开林肯纪念堂反射池时摘下帽子,2026年11月02日,华盛顿特区。距离美国人前往投票站参加关键中期选举还有一天,总统唐纳德·特朗普WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 02: U.S. President Donald Trump takes of his hat as he departs after delivering remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on November 02, 2026 in Washington, DC. With one day left before Americans go to the polls in consequential midterm elections, President Donald Tr

最高法院的保守派多数席位是特朗普时代的一个显著特征,以惊人的速度将堕胎、枪支和宗教方面的法律推向右翼。虽然特朗普在这一动态中发挥了重大作用——在其第一个任期内提名了三位大法官——但他现在可能在第二个任期结束时一次大法官任命都没有。

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority has been a defining feature of the Trump era, pushing the law on abortion, guns and religion to the right at breakneck speed. While Trump had a major hand in that dynamic — naming three justices during his first term — it’s possible he will now finish his second term without a single appointment.

“除非未来六周内发生什么事,否则特朗普总统任期内不会有最高法院大法官被确认,”共和党人、佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯周三表示。“这不仅适用于未来两年,在之后的四年里也很可能如此。”阿利托和托马斯,法院中年龄最大的两位大法官,在法院当前任期于十月开始之前就已明确表示,他们无意退休。阿利托还告诉彭博新闻社,即使民主党夺得参议院控制权,他也会继续留任。

“No Supreme Court justice will be confirmed under President Trump’s administration unless something happens in the next six weeks,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, said Wednesday. “That’s not just true for these two years, that would likely be true for the four years after that.”Both Alito and Thomas, the court’s oldest justices, made clear before the court’s current term began in October that they did not intend to retire. Alito also told Bloomberg News that he would stay on even if Democrats captured the Senate.

但这种信念在未来几天将受到考验,因为共和党人试图从民主党的压倒性胜利中重整旗鼓,而其他人不可避免地会将其与大法官露丝·巴德·金斯伯格进行比较。金斯伯格是一位自由派大法官,她在民主党控制华盛顿时选择不退休,这让特朗普有机会提名大法官埃米·科尼·巴雷特,从而巩固了法院的保守倾向。金斯伯格于2020年9月去世,时隔当年总统大选仅几周。

But that conviction will be tested in coming days as Republicans attempt to pick up the pieces from Democrats’ sweeping victory and others inevitably draw comparisons to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal whose decision to not retire when Democrats controlled Washington let Trump solidify the court’s conservative tilt by naming Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Ginsburg died in September 2020, weeks before that year’s presidential election. Alito, who has served on the court since 2006, will be 78 when the next presidential contest is decided in 2028.

自2006年起任职的阿利托,在2028年下一届总统大选决出时将年满78岁。如果民主党人赢得白宫,这位新泽西州本土人将不得不再等至少四年——直到82岁——才有机会由一位共和党总统接替。自1991年起任职的托马斯,在2028年将年满80岁,在2032年选民选举总统时将年满84岁。

If a Democrat wins the White House, the New Jersey native would have to wait at least another four years — until age 82 — to have an opportunity to be replaced by a Republican president. Thomas, who has served on the court since 1991, will be 80 in 2028 and 84 when voters pick a president in 2032. Those ages are not out of line with recent retirements at the Supreme Court, where justices serve for life but often step down in their 80s.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与最高法院大法官塞缪尔·阿利托握手,此前马克·埃斯珀在白宫椭圆形办公室的就职典礼上宣誓就任国防部长,2019年7月23日。Carolyn Kaster/AP/档案照片President Donald Trump shakes hands with Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, after Mark Esper was sworn in as Secretary of Defense, during a ceremony in the Oval Office of the White House on July 23, 2019. Carolyn Kaster/AP/File

这些年龄与最高法院最近的退休情况并不相悖,大法官终身任职,但常常在80多岁时退休。里根提名、后来成为摇摆大法官的安东尼·肯尼迪,在2018年特朗普第一个任期内退休时年仅82岁,由大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺接替。自由派大法官斯蒂芬·布雷耶在83岁时退休,让乔·拜登总统有机会提名大法官肯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊。

Justice Anthony Kennedy, a Reagan nominee who became a swing justice, was 82 when he retired in 2018 during Trump’s first term and was succeeded by Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Liberal Justice Stephen Breyer was 83 when he stepped down and gave President Joe Biden the opportunity to nominate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. Alito and Thomas both appear to be in good health, though the court rarely provides detail about the justices’ care.

阿利托和托马斯看起来都身体健康,尽管法院很少提供大法官医疗护理的细节。CNN四月报道称,阿利托在费城联邦党人协会晚宴上身体不适后被送往医院,当时接受了检查并因脱水输液。托马斯2022年因住院接受感染治疗而错过了多场辩论,法院发言人当时这样描述。两人都有资格参加与其他联邦雇员相同的医疗保健计划。

CNN reported in April that Alito was taken to a hospital after becoming ill at a Federalist Society dinner in Philadelphia. He was evaluated and administered fluids for dehydration at the time. Thomas missed several arguments in 2022 after being hospitalized to receive treatment for what a court spokesperson described at the time as an infection. Both are entitled to enroll in the same health care plans as other federal employees.

周末,托马斯在最高法院任职满35周年,首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨周一在口头辩论的正常流程中打破惯例,对此表示祝贺。

Over the weekend, Thomas marked his 35th anniversary on the Supreme Court and Chief Justice John Roberts departed from the normal flow of oral arguments on Monday to make note of it.

“三十五年后,托马斯大法官是本法院历史上第二位达到这一历史性里程碑的大法官,”罗伯茨说。托马斯将在2028年成为任职时间最长的大法官。

“Three and a half decades later, Justice Thomas is only the second justice in this court’s history to reach this historic milestone,” Roberts said. Thomas would become the longest-serving justice in 2028.

美国华盛顿特区最高法院,2026年6月25日。Elizabeth Frantz/路透社The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 25, 2026 Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

阿利托和托马斯始终投保守派票,是右翼的宠儿,也常遭左翼批评。

Both Alito and Thomas consistently vote for conservative outcomes and are beloved figures on the right, and often criticized by the left.

阿利托于2022年撰写推翻罗诉韦德案的多数意见,完成了保守派法律运动数十年的项目。今年早些时候,阿利托撰写了一份6比3的意见,在很大程度上削弱了《投票权法案》在重新划分选区中的适用,这一决定在一定程度上帮助了共和党。托马斯于2022年撰写了一份扩大第二修正案权利的里程碑式意见,被广泛视为一位拒绝妥协其信念的法学家。

Alito wrote the majority opinion in 2022 overturning Roe v. Wade, completing a decades-long project of the conservative legal movement. Earlier this year, Alito authored a 6-3 opinion that largely gutted the Voting Rights Act for redistricting, a decision that helped the GOP to some extent. Thomas authored a landmark opinion in 2022 expanding Second Amendment rights and is widely viewed as a jurist who refuses to compromise his convictions.

对他们席位的担忧无疑将引发猜测,即两位大法官是否可能在国会“跛脚鸭”会议期间辞职,届时共和党将继续控制参议院。金斯伯格去世后,特朗普在时任参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔的协助下,在不到一个月的时间里推动巴雷特完成确认。

The consternation over their seats is sure to kick up speculation about whether either justice might step down during the lame duck session of Congress when Republicans will maintain control of the Senate. Following Ginsburg’s death, Trump, aided by then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, rushed Barrett through confirmation in just over a month.

但这种做法也存在风险。经常撰写确认听证会相关文章的保守派法律评论员埃德·韦兰指出,鉴于包括得克萨斯州的约翰·科宁和北卡罗来纳州的汤姆·蒂利斯在内的多位“跛脚鸭”参议员“都不太愿意给特朗普任何便宜”,在新参议员宣誓就职前尝试确认可能会适得其反。

But that approach would carry risks. Ed Whelan, a conservative legal commentator who regularly writes on confirmations, noted that any attempt at confirmation before the new Senate is sworn in could backfire given that a number of lame-duck senators such as John Cornyn of Texas and Thom Tillis of North Carolina “aren’t going to be eager to do Trump any favors.”

彭博新闻上个月询问阿利托,他是否对“在跛脚鸭国会期间退休”这一想法持“绝对反对”态度,阿利托回答说:“是啊。”

Asked by Bloomberg News last month if he was a “firm no” to the idea of retiring in a lame duck Congress, Alito responded, “Yeah.”

58岁的莉兹·格雷厄姆拥抱53岁的希瑟·赫利,此前确认民主党在众议院取得多数席位,地点是密歇根州底特律格罗斯波因特民主党俱乐部的选举之夜观看派对,2026年11月3日。(Nick Hagen为CNN拍摄)Nick Hagen为CNN拍摄Liz Graham, 58, hugs Heather Hurley, 53, after it was confirmed that Democrats have taken a majority in the House at an election night watch party at the Grosse Pointe Democratic Club in Detroit, Michigan on November 3, 2026. (Nick Hagen for CNN) Nick Hagen for CNN

与此同时,阿利托在十月接受CBS新闻采访时承认,他至少考虑过退休,称这是“他认为自己这个年纪的人每个任期都要思考的事情”。目前尚无迹象表明白宫或参议院共和党人正在考虑发起一场跛脚鸭确认之争。

At the same time, Alito acknowledged in an interview with CBS News in October that he had at least weighed retirement as “something I think that somebody at my age has to think about every term.”There is no indication as yet that the White House or Senate Republicans are even thinking about a lame duck confirmation fight.

周三,阿利托和托马斯走上法庭审理一起涉及得克萨斯州死囚的案件时,似乎并未受到为他们进行的政治考量所干扰。阿利托带着紧绷的微笑走进法院华丽的审判庭,很少提问。他比平时花更多时间深深地靠在黑色皮椅上——随着关于人身保护令的技术性辩论持续了一个小时,他不停地摇晃着身体。

There was also little indication Alito or Thomas were distracted by the political calculations being made on their behalf as they took the bench Wednesday to hear a case involving a death row inmate in Texas. Alito stepped into the court’s ornate chamber with a tight grin and few questions. He spent more time than normal leaning far back in his black leather chair — rocking as the technical argument over habeas corpus unfolded over the course of an hour.

托马斯则表现得格外投入,提出了尖锐的追问,表明他怀疑死囚德克斯特·约翰逊是否应该能够提起新的人身保护令案件来挑战其刑罚。托马斯甚至用一句关于马伯里诉麦迪逊案的玩笑话引起了同事们的轻笑,他询问这项1803年的判例是否可以根据约翰逊律师提出的理论被视为“新”的。

Thomas was especially engaged, asking pointed follow up questions that indicated skepticism that the inmate, Dexter Johnson, should be able to bring a new habeas case to challenge his sentence. Thomas even drew a chuckle from his colleagues with a tongue-and-cheek question about whether the foundational 1803 decision in Marbury v. Madison could be considered “new” under the theory raised by Johnson’s attorney.

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