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共和党惨败对特朗普意味着什么What Republicans' huge loss means for Trump

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民主党刚把唐纳德·特朗普总统置于进退两难的境地。该党预计将在众议院和参议院赢得压倒性多数,在全国各地的关键选举中大幅击败共和党人。蓝色海啸将颠覆华盛顿,并粉碎在特朗普任期前两年既支持又庇护他的共和党国会堡垒。

Democrats just put President Donald Trump in a bind. The party is projected to win commanding majorities in the House and Senate after thrashing Republicans in key races up and down the ballot across the country. The blue tsunami will knock Washington on its head and crush the Republican congressional bulwark that both supported and shielded Trump through the first two years of his term.

中期选举结果扼杀了特朗普在任期后半段通过党派立法的任何可能性。许多他在没有国会参与的情况下得以推进的利益——包括关税、伊朗战争以及一系列华盛顿地区的建设项目——必将受到新上任的民主党多数的突然抵制。

The midterm result snuffs out any chance Trump had of passing partisan legislation in the second half of his presidency. And many of the interests he has been able to pursue without Congress' input — including tariffs, the Iran war and an array of Washington-area construction projects — are sure to face sudden pushback from newly empowered Democratic majorities.

然而,这一范式转变并未让特朗普束手无策。作为执政权力扩张时期的总统,特朗普拥有可阻碍民主党推进自身议程的独特权力。

The paradigm shift hardly leaves Trump helpless, however. As president at a time of executive-power expansion, Trump wields singular authorities that could stymie Democrats' efforts to pursue their own agendas.

但随着他对国会的控制力日益收缩,且在多项民调中支持率跌至创纪录的低点,他能够动员多少支持来应对即将到来的政治斗争仍不明朗。

But with his grip on the Capitol shriveling and his approval ratings scraping record lows in numerous polls, it's unclear how much support he'll be able to muster to fight the coming political battles.

早在选举日之前,分析人士和评论员就已设想一次决定性的大败,使共和党面临严峻考验,甚至可能对特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”运动构成生存威胁。

Even before Election Day, analysts and pundits had contemplated a Democratic rout so decisive that it would force a reckoning for the GOP, and potentially even pose an existential threat to Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement.

前副总统迈克·彭斯的前幕僚长、美国自由推进组织主席马克·肖特周二下午在接受CNBC采访时表示,共和党已背离其保守主义根基。

Marc Short, chairman of Advancing American Freedom and onetime chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence, told CNBC on Tuesday afternoon that the GOP has moved away from its conservative foundations.

“我们现在需要一次刷新,”肖特在采访中说。“我们已经迷失方向。”特朗普对自己在任期余下时间希望实现的目标含糊其辞。但他已分享了一个与民主党多数共存的设想,而这将大量使用否决权。

"We need a refresh right now," Short said in an interview. "We've lost our way." Trump has been vague about what he hopes to achieve with the rest of his term. But he has shared a vision of how he might coexist with a Democratic majority, and it involves heavy use of the veto pen.

特朗普在周五晚间的福克斯新闻采访中表示:“这是总统拥有的最强大的权力之一。他们会送来一些疯狂的东西,我会否决它们。”

"It's one of the stronger powers that a president has," Trump said in a Fox News interview overnight. "They'll send over things that are insane, and I'll veto them."

“经过几个月的否决后,他们会打电话说:‘我们怎么把这些事情办成?’然后我们会一起合作,”他补充道,“我有很多民主党朋友。”

"And after a couple of months of vetoes, they'll call and they'll say, 'How do we get this stuff done?' And we'll work together," he said, adding, "I have a lot of friends that are Democrats."

特朗普此前曾表示,愿意否决民主党送到他办公桌上的大量立法。在周一发布的《纽约邮报》播客采访中,特朗普说,如果共和党不获胜,“我会否决一切。”

Trump has previously stated his willingness to veto reams of legislation that Democrats send across his desk. In a New York Post podcast interview released Monday, Trump said that if Republicans don't win, "I veto everything."

当被要求详细说明未来两年的计划时,特朗普宣扬自己的成绩,并表示:“最重要的是要保持这种势头。情况会越来越好,除非有人上来憎恨我们的国家。”如果发生这种情况,“我想我会成为‘否决先生’,”特朗普说。

Pressed to detail his plans for the next two years, Trump touted his record and said, "The most important thing is to keep it going. It's going to get better and better and better, unless people come in that hate our country." If that happens, "I guess I'll become Mr. Veto," Trump said.

他很快就可能有这个机会:CNBC了解到,由现任少数党领袖、纽约州的哈基姆·杰弗里斯领导的众议院民主党人,计划在明年1月掌权后立即通过一系列法案。

He may soon get his chance: House Democrats, poised to be led by current Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, are planning to pass a flurry of bills as soon as they take the reins next January, CNBC has learned.

《纽约时报》率先报道了这一立法推动,旨在展示一个团结的民主党党团,迅速采取行动解决他们当选所要解决的问题,尤其是从汽油到杂货等各方面极其高昂的成本。

The legislative push, first reported by The New York Times, aims to show a united Democratic caucus taking quick action on the issues they were elected to solve, especially oppressively high costs on everything from gas to groceries.

在宣誓就职后的头100小时内,众议院民主党人计划提出法案,恢复在共和党控制的国会下到期的增强健康保险补贴,并撤销特朗普今年早些时候签署成为法律的医疗补助削减。

In their first 100 hours after being sworn in, House Democrats plan to introduce bills reinstating the enhanced health insurance subsidies that expired under the GOP-held Congress, and reversing the Medicaid cuts Trump signed into law earlier this year.

民主党人还计划推进一项法案,推翻特朗普的广泛关税,并重申国会在设定进口税方面的作用。他们还将再次就结束伊朗战争的立法进行投票,或寻求国会授权继续战争。

Democrats also plan to push forward a bill that would undo Trump's sweeping tariffs and reassert Congress' role in setting import taxes. And they will again vote on legislation to end the war in Iran, or seek congressional authorization to keep it going.

但如果没有特朗普的批准,这些法案可能最终不过是象征性的姿态,因为民主党将缺乏在两院中推翻总统否决所需的三分之二多数,若没有共和党的帮助,他们无法做到这一点。

But without Trump's approval, those bills may end up as little more than symbolic gestures, as Democrats will lack the two-thirds majorities in both chambers that are required to override a presidential veto without GOP help.

而且,这些法案甚至未必能通过国会:尽管参议院民主党取得了压倒性胜利,他们仍将缺少绕过该院阻挠议事规则所需的60票,这使得少数党的共和党拥有关键筹码。

And there's no guarantee the bills will even make it out of Congress: Despite their landslide victories, Senate Democrats will still end up shy of the 60 votes required to bypass the chamber's filibuster rules for most legislation, giving Republicans key leverage in the minority.

从长远来看,民主党也可能从特朗普的否决中获益。迫使总统否决众多受欢迎的法案,可能为他们在2028年大选中提供弹药。

Democrats also could feasibly benefit from Trump's vetoes in the long term. Forcing the president to shoot down numerous popular bills could give them fodder in the 2028 election.

目前尚不清楚特朗普是否认为自己能就民主党的任何初步立法优先事项达成妥协。

It's far from clear whether Trump believes he can find compromise with Democrats on any of their initial legislative priorities.

但与在野党建立工作关系的任何潜在可能性,都可能在早期就被毒化,因为两院的民主党都在积极表明,计划对特朗普、他的政治和企业盟友,甚至他的家人发起政治色彩浓厚的调查。赢得众议院委员会控制权,使民主党能够根据现行规则发出传票。

But any potential for a working relationship with the opposition could be poisoned early on, as Democrats in both chambers are aggressively signaling their plans to launch politically charged investigations against Trump, his political and corporate allies and even his family members. Winning control of House committees gives Democrats the ability to issue subpoenas under the current rules.

加利福尼亚州民主党众议员罗伯特·加西亚,预计将在下一届国会担任众议院监督委员会主席,他表示,他的委员会将针对特朗普家族的商业交易、企业腐败以及联邦移民机构的所谓滥用行为。他还计划将焦点重新放回特朗普政府处理臭名昭著的性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦相关档案的方式上。

Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., who is likely to chair the House Oversight Committee in the next Congress, said his panel will target the Trump family's business dealings, corporate corruption and alleged abuses by federal immigration agencies. He also plans to return focus to the Trump administration's handling of files related to notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

周二晚,随着选举结果陆续公布,加西亚用两个字概括了他的计划:“准备好律师。”不仅仅是加西亚。其他一些民主党人已经就一系列问题向特朗普政府索要记录。例如,马里兰州民主党众议员杰米·拉斯金上周指责特朗普利用关税豁免,为那些领导人向特朗普馈赠礼物的行业达成“甜蜜交易”。参议院民主党人也发出了类似信号。

As results rolled in Tuesday night, Garcia summed up his plans in a two-word statement: "Lawyer up." It's not just Garcia. Other Democrats have already demanded records from the Trump administration on a range of issues. Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., for instance, last week accused Trump of using tariff exemptions to cut "sweetheart deals" for industries whose leaders have plied Trump with gifts. Senate Democrats have sent similar signals.

“他们将不得不种植新森林,来印制我们将发出的所有传票,”马萨诸塞州民主党参议员埃德·马基周二晚间在X平台的一篇帖子中回应另一篇帖子时表示,该帖子似乎是指科技高管。调查预计将占据特朗普其余任期的大部分时间。

"They are going to need to plant new forests for all of the subpoenas we'll be printing," Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., said in an X post late Tuesday in response to a post, appearing to refer to tech executives. The investigations are widely expected to consume much of the rest of Trump's term.

特朗普在第一个总统任期内两次被众议院民主党人弹劾,对此他有丰富的被针对经验。

Trump has ample experience being targeted by Democrats, who impeached him twice in the House during his first presidential term.

但随着其支持基础在华盛顿内外似乎正在削弱,特朗普可能不得不以比以往更小的武器库面对其政治对手。

But with his base of support appearing to erode inside and outside of Washington, Trump may have to face his political foes with a smaller arsenal than he's used to.

美国行动论坛(AAF)的肖特对CNBC表示:“我不指望共和党人在中期选举失利后会反抗特朗普。”“但我指望其中一些人会悄悄与他保持距离。”

"I'm not expecting Republicans to revolt" against Trump following the midterm losses, AAF's Short told CNBC. "But I'm expecting some of them to quietly distance themselves."

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