
只有一种方式来看待民主党在中期选举中的胜利:这是现代史上对一位在任总统最巨大的否决之一。
There’s only way to view the Democrats’ midterm election triumph: It is one of the most colossal repudiations of a sitting president in modern history.
选民有机会对特朗普的帝制式权力攫取、他在伊朗那场不得人心的战争、他未能扭转惩罚性的生活成本、他的混乱、其政府涉嫌的腐败,以及其蒙面特工抓捕移民的行径,投下审判之票。
Voters had the chance to cast their judgment on Trump’s imperial power grabs; his unpopular war in Iran; his failure to roll back the punishing cost of living; his chaos; his administration’s alleged corruption; and his masked agents rounding up migrants.
他们通过摧毁“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)在华盛顿的垄断地位、将众参两院均交还给民主党、在一场席卷共和党腹地的怪异蓝色浪潮中复活了宪法规定的制衡体系,作出了回应。
They responded by destroying the MAGA monopoly in Washington, handing both the House and the Senate to Democrats, and reviving the constitutional system of checks and balances in a freak blue wave that crashed across GOP heartlands.
民主党的胜利如此巨大迅速,以至于挫败了特朗普将任何他输掉的选举都视为舞弊的倾向。人们担心的政府挑战选举结果的行动从未发生。2020年的耻辱不会重演,因为民主党的胜利大到无法舞弊。
The Democratic victory was so huge and swift that it thwarted even Trump’s tendency to view any election he loses as spoiled by fraud. The feared administration operation to challenge the result never materialized. There will be no repeat of the infamy of 2020 because the Democratic win was too big to rig.
美国民主在特朗普两个任期中被推向极限,现在似乎有望在他之后存续下去。
American democracy, pushed to its limits during Trump’s two terms, now seems likely to survive him.
而在共和党惨败的消息揭晓后,特朗普显得温顺,在致电媒体时听起来受到了谴责、几乎让人认不出来。就在自称“否决先生”一天后,这位总统甚至承诺要与他最近还宣布为对美国构成生存威胁的政党寻找共同立场。“嗯,我们将与民主党合作,确保国家发展顺利。非常重要,”他在《政治客》(Politico)的选举之夜直播中说道。
And Trump was meek, sounding chastened and nearly unrecognizable when calling into media outlets after the Republican devastation was revealed. A day after calling himself “Mr. Veto,” the president even pledged to find common ground with the party he’d recently declared an existential threat to America. “Well, we’re going to work with the Democrats to make sure things go well for our country. Very important,” he told Politico’s Election Night livestream.
特朗普试图辩称是共和党候选人自毁前程——主要是因为他们不够像他。但无法逃避的现实是:尽管他的支持率极其低下,且他今年决定与伊朗开战与汽油和柴油价格飙升、伤害数百万家庭之间有着清晰的关联,他仍将这次选举完全变成了关于他自己的公投。
Trump tried to argue that GOP candidates had doomed themselves — largely by not being him. But there was no escaping the reality. He’d made the election all about himself, despite his appalling approval ratings and the clear through-line between his decision to wage war with Iran this year and the soaring gasoline and diesel prices that hurt millions of families.
他的纵情享乐结果被证明是一次巨大的误算,而他吹嘘国家应当感谢他带来“黄金时代”,则是一种与所有人的日常生活证据明显相悖的自我欺骗。
HIs self-indulgence turned out to be a massive miscalculation, and his boasts that the country should thank him for its “golden age” were an act of self-delusion that clearly conflicted with the evidence of everyone’s daily life.
这位总统试图通过操纵选区划分来倾斜选举版图以排挤民主党人的企图,最终大多因他自身的巨大不受欢迎而失败,反而将共和党人击垮了。
And the president’s attempts to tilt the electoral map by gerrymandering districts to eject Democrats mostly foundered on his own massive unpopularity that knocked out Republicans instead.
2024年,特朗普完成了美国历史上最伟大的东山再起之一,赢得了非连续的第二个总统任期。两年后,这个被他按照自己形象重塑的共和党遭遇的大溃败,堪称史上最惨重的崩盘之一。
In 2024, Trump pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in American history to claim a nonconsecutive second presidential term. Two years later, the rout of a Republican Party he transformed in his image must rank as one of the greatest flameouts.

随着周二选举之夜的展开,政治重组的迹象缓缓显现,随后似乎在一股令人难以置信的洪流中爆发:民主党赢得了众议院,在南卡罗来纳州和得克萨斯州等前所未闻的地方斩获了令人震惊的参议院席位,随后又夺得了一批州长职位。
As election night unfolded on Tuesday, the evidence of a political realignment built slowly, then seemed to explode in an unbelievable torrent as Democrats won the House, piled up stunning Senate wins in unheard-of places like South Carolina and Texas, then added a clutch of governorships.
特朗普强行塞进关键竞选中的大多数候选人都遭遇了灾难性的失败——其中包括得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿和南卡罗来纳州参议员达尔琳·格雷厄姆,她失去了其已故兄弟的席位。若不是特朗普的团队以“让美国再次伟大(MAGA)”异端为由将参议员乔尼·恩斯特和汤姆·蒂利斯逼出政坛,共和党或许本能保住艾奥瓦州和北卡罗来纳州。
Most of the candidates Trump muscled into key races failed disastrously — including Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham, who lost her late brother’s seat. Had Trump’s team not chased Sens. Joni Ernst and Thom Tillis out of politics for MAGA heresy, the GOP might have clung on to Iowa and North Carolina.
有线电视新闻网(CNN)的民调数据显示,该国绝大多数人反对特朗普的战争、他的经济政策、他的移民镇压行动以及他的领导。
CNN polling data showed that clear majorities in the country oppose Trump’s war; his economy; his immigration crackdowns; and his leadership.
特朗普的政治团队长期以来一直将他吹捧为一个罕见的政治巨星,对共和党基层有着近乎超自然的直觉,并具备取得传统共和党人永远无法实现的政治胜利的能力。
Trump’s political team has long lauded him as a generational political superstar with an almost supernatural feel for the GOP grassroots and the capacity to deliver political victories that a conventional Republican could never pull off.
这其中有几分真实。但在他令人震惊的首次总统大选胜利十年之后,经过长达一个月筋疲力尽的努力、旨在拯救全国最红政治领地的共和党人,这些魔力在周二抛弃了特朗普。
There’s some truth to that. But 10 years after his shock first presidential election victory, those powers deserted Trump on Tuesday, after an exhausting monthlong bid to save Republicans in the reddest political territory across the country.
没有任何地方比得克萨斯州更能体现溃败的规模以及对特朗普的排斥,詹姆斯·塔拉里科在那里为民主党赢得了近四十年来首个参议院席位。而共和党的中坚力量、州长格雷格·阿伯特也令人瞩目地落败,在竞选第四任期时被民主党律师吉娜·希诺霍萨击败。
Nowhere encapsulated the scale of the rout and the rejection of Trump more than Texas, where James Talarico won a first Senate seat for Democrats in nearly four decades. And Gov. Greg Abbott — a Republican bulwark — remarkably also fell, beaten in his bid for a fourth term by Democratic lawyer Gina Hinojosa.
许多特朗普的批评者一直将他的政治生涯视为对巴拉克·奥巴马这位首位黑人总统的反弹,并对他的尖锐种族言论、白人文化引述以及对少数族裔女性和穆斯林的攻击感到震惊。
Many Trump critics have seen his political career as a backlash to the first Black presidency, of Barack Obama, and have been shaken by his searing racial rhetoric, White cultural references and attacks on minority women and Muslims.
但美国政治的韧性再次显现。作为对反弹的反弹,希诺霍萨将成为得克萨斯州首位拉丁裔州长。佐治亚州将迎来该州及全美首位黑人女性州长凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯。阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在击退了竞选期间特朗普的宗教偏见后,将成为首位当选参议员的穆斯林。众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯则有望成为首位黑人议长。
But the elasticity of American politics has shone through again. In a backlash to the backlash, Hinojosa will be the first Latina governor of Texas. Georgia will have its and the nation’s first Black woman governor in Keisha Lance Bottoms. Abdul El-Sayed will be the first Muslim elected to the Senate after fending off Trump’s religious bigotry during the campaign. And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is poised to become the first Black speaker.
特朗普远非首位经历中期选举惨败的总统。奥巴马在2010年遭遇了“惨败”;小布什在2006年挨了“重击”;而比尔·克林顿的不受欢迎则引发了1994年的共和党革命。
Trump is far from the first president to endure a midterm meltdown. Obama suffered a “shellacking” in 2010; George W. Bush took a “thumpin’” in 2006; and Bill Clinton’s unpopularity triggered a Republican revolution in 1994.
但2026年似乎尤其具有个人色彩。这位总统的整个公众形象和政治逻辑都建立在他自诩为世界最大赢家之一的自负之上。然而他刚刚遭遇了一场最耻辱的失败之一。
But 2026 seems especially personal. The president’s entire persona and political rationale is built around the conceit that he’s one of the world’s greatest winners. Yet he’s just been dealt one of the most ignominious defeats.
“我没有出现在选票上,如果我在的话,我们会以压倒性优势获胜!感谢您对此事的关注。总统唐纳德·J·特朗普”这位总统在“真相社交”上写道。
“I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP” the president wrote on Truth Social.
但他的话听起来苍白无力。就在两天前,他曾在艾奥瓦州对人群表示:“假装我在选票上,因为从本质上讲,我就是在选票上。”那么接下来会怎样?
But his words rang hollow. Just two days ago he’d told a crowd in Iowa: “Pretend I’m on the ballot because, essentially, I am on the ballot.”So what next?
新上任的民主党国会明年将通过对政府、伊朗战争、白宫涉嫌腐败以及可能涉及在总统近两年任期内使其个人财富膨胀的商业投资展开不间断的调查,让特朗普身边的每一个人都日子难过。
The new Democratic Congress will make the lives of everyone in Trump’s orbit miserable next year with relentless investigations into the administration, the Iran war, alleged White House corruption and potentially the business ventures that have swelled the president’s personal wealth during nearly two years in office.

在夺取参议院控制权后,民主党人将有权阻止特朗普任期最后两年中出现的任何最高法院空缺提名,并阻止对该党反对的任何新内阁部长的确认。
After capturing the Senate, the Democrats will have power to block any Supreme Court vacancies that occur during the last two years of Trump’s term and the confirmation of any new Cabinet secretaries that the party opposes.
一场激烈的党派之争现在很可能会上演。特朗普或许对周二国家给他的严厉训斥感到刺痛,而且他实际上将成为一只跛脚鸭。但这位几代人中最具颠覆性的总统不太可能会表现得像个跛脚鸭。
A period of fierce partisan warfare is now likely. Trump might have been stung by the country’s rebuke on Tuesday, and he will effectively be a lame duck. But the most disruptive president in generations is unlikely to behave like one.
如果特朗普无法在明年1月新国会到来之前结束伊朗战争,预计将会爆发围绕预算和伊朗战争的摊牌。此外,围绕他试图通过行政权力进行统治的举动,以及民主党传唤特朗普助手作证的要求,也可能会引发持久的宪法争斗。随着这位总统试图弥补其受限的国内权力,他在海外可能会变得更加反复无常和更具攻击性。
Expect showdowns over the budget and over the Iran war if Trump can’t end it before the next Congress arrives in January. Also likely are prolonged constitutional tussles over his attempts to rule through executive power and Democratic subpoenas for testimony from Trump aides. The president may become even more erratic and aggressive overseas as he tries to compensate for his crimped domestic power.
共和党人在周二遭遇的灾难规模——当时民主党人赢得了他们最大胆梦想中几乎所有希望得到的东西,甚至更多——给那些对2028年共和党总统初选虎视眈眈的人提出了严峻的问题。
The size of the GOP disaster on Tuesday — when Democrats won almost everything they hoped to in their wildest dreams, and more — raises grave questions for those eyeing the GOP presidential race in 2028.
副总统詹姆斯·戴维斯·万斯现在面临着一个巨大的问题:他一直被视为特朗普的法定接班人,但现在他可能不得不开始与老板划清界限的微妙工作。国务卿马可·鲁比奥会成为那个利用旧共和党残余力量(他曾是其中的领军人物)建立新的后“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)联盟的人吗?还是说,佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯等其他人现在会认为,一个来自受信誉受损政府外部的希望之星将有机会赢得提名并重振共和党品牌?
Vice President JD Vance now has a giant problem: He’s been seen as Trump’s heir apparent, but he may now have to begin the delicate business of separating himself from the boss. Could Secretary of State Marco Rubio be the man to create a new post-MAGA coalition with remnants of the old GOP, of which he was once a leading light? Or will others, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, now reason that a hopeful from outside a discredited administration will have a chance of winning the nomination and reviving the Republican brand?
民主党人在终于停止狂欢时也将面临一个问题。他们将分得一部分权力,但由于特朗普的否决权,他们将缺乏完全兑现选民渴望的变革的能力。如果他们无法在生活成本可承受性问题上交出成果——总统乔·拜登和特朗普在这方面都遭遇了失败,他们可能会在仅仅两年后的选举之夜遭遇惨败。
Democrats will also have an issue when they finally stop partying. They’ll have a share of power but will lack the full capacity to deliver the change that voters crave because of Trump’s veto pen. If they can’t deliver on affordability, where both President Joe Biden and Trump failed, they could find themselves on the wrong end of an election night drubbing in just two years.
每个人都应该从这个动荡的时代吸取根本的教训。没有任何政治胜利是永恒的,也没有哪个多数派是永久的。
There are fundamental lessons everyone should learn from this tempestuous era. No political victory is forever, and no majority is permanent.
最重要的是,没有任何总统——无论他们认为自己多么强大——是不可战胜的。
And most importantly, no president, no matter how powerful they believe themselves to be, is invincible.