特朗普是本世纪主导政治的人物。他取得了美国历史上最出人意料的竞选胜利之一，随后又上演了最伟大的政治回归。他改变了美国与世界的关系，改写了总统职位的规则和预期，煽动了国家的分裂，并改变了美国人对总统职位——以及思考这一职位的频率——的看法。他无处不在，并从这种无所不在中汲取力量。
Trump has been the dominant political figure of this century. He pulled off one of the most unlikely campaign victories in American history, and then staged the greatest political comeback. He has altered the United States’ relationship with the world, rewritten the rules and expectations of the presidency, inflamed the nation’s divisions, and changed how—and how often—Americans think about his office. He is omnipresent, and draws his power from that ubiquity.
但今晚，特朗普被迫直面自己的政治生命终有尽头这一现实。他要求选民把这些中期选举变成对他的一次公投，想象选票上印着他的名字。选民们听到了——然后拒绝了他。这是一次令人震惊、范围广泛的斥责。民主党人似乎势将赢得众议院，如果趋势保持下去，在美国人表达了对总统过去两年带领国家方向的强烈不满之后，民主党人还可能拿下参议院。
But tonight, Trump has been forced to face his political mortality. He asked voters to make these midterm elections a referendum on him, to imagine that his name was on the ballot. They listened—and then rejected him. It is a stunning, widespread rebuke. Democrats appear poised to win the House and, if trends hold, could also capture the Senate after Americans registered their strong disapproval of the direction in which the president has taken the country over the past two years.
特朗普现在很可能不得不与国会民主党人打交道，后者可能阻挠他的议程并行使传票权。他还必须面对这样一种可能性：他按照自己的形象重塑的政党，可能很快开始把目光投向他的继任者。唐纳德·J·特朗普现在正式地、彻底地成为了一只跛脚鸭。
Trump will now likely have to deal with congressional Democrats who could block his agenda and wield the power of the subpoena. He also must face the possibility that the political party he remade in his image may soon start looking beyond him. Donald J. Trump is now officially, thoroughly a lame duck.
但他引发的议论不会就此平息。他仍是总司令，主导全球事务，手握行政命令的广泛权力，在吸引关注方面依然无人能及。他此前不止一次从政治坟墓中脱身，而且变得更加强大。然而，尽管拥有如此权力、如此声势，他终究无法压服无情推进的日历：下一场全国选举将是取代他的那场选举。特朗普不久后就会在新闻头条中逐渐淡出，被总统竞选挤下头版。
But we haven’t heard the last of him. He remains the commander in chief, dominates global affairs, wields the expansive power of executive orders, and remains unequaled at capturing attention. He has escaped the political graveyard more than once before, and emerged stronger. Yet for all his power, for all his volume, he cannot browbeat the unrelenting calendar: The next national election will be the one to replace him. Trump will before long begin to slip in the headlines, pushed off the front page by the presidential campaign.
他将面临一种可能：一位民主党总统接替他，而此人可能动用司法部深挖过去四年，并调查特朗普的盟友、朋友、家人和企业。他还将面对可以说是他最大的恐惧：变得无足轻重。
He’ll face the possibility of being succeeded by a Democratic president who could employ the Department of Justice to plumb the previous four years and look into Trump’s allies, friends, family, and businesses. And he’ll confront arguably his greatest fear: irrelevance.
特朗普不会悄然退场。目前尚不清楚他和共和党同僚是否会接受中期选举结果——而他屡屡打破预期，因此设定任何预期都是愚蠢之举。今晚预计的失利不会让他谦卑。但这些失利标志着终结的开始。
Trump will not go quietly. It is not clear whether he and fellow Republicans will even accept the midterm results—and he has defied expectations so often that it would be a foolish exercise to set any. Tonight’s expected losses will not humble him. But they mark the beginning of the end.
特朗普的中期选举竞选以最荒诞却又最可预料的方式收场。数月来，总统一直被指脱离民众，失去了曾经无人能及的、对支持者情绪所在的敏锐感知。他一边嘲弄民众对生活负担能力的担忧，一边自己的财富不断膨胀；他发动了一场美国人不想要的战争，改造了白宫，还筹划了各种为自己树碑立传的工程。然后昨天，他决定，要回击“他沉迷于虚荣工程和腐败交易”这一指责，最好的办法就是在自己最荒唐、最失败的翻修工程所在地发表本轮竞选周期的最后一场演讲。
Trump’s midterm campaign ended in the most ridiculous, yet predictable, way possible. For months, the president had been accused of being out of touch, of losing his once-unmatched feel for what animated his supporters. He has mocked affordability concerns while his own fortune has swelled, started a war that Americans did not want, remodeled the White House, and planned various monuments to himself. And then yesterday, he decided that the best way to push back against the accusation that he’d been consumed with vanity projects and corrupt bargains would be to deliver the final speech of the campaign cycle at the site of his most absurd, failed renovation project.
令各地共和党人沮丧的是，特朗普在选举日前夕站在倒影池前，为一个因藻类问题和一家未经竞标选定的承包商施工质量低劣而注定失败的项目进行辩护。特朗普曾谎称该项目因蓄意破坏而受阻，而该项目超出预算数百万美元，在密歇根州、堪萨斯州和阿拉斯加州等地肯定一票也没拉到。最糟糕的是，绕道重提倒影池一事分散了人们对特朗普真正收官信息的注意力：俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特德身材很棒。
To the dismay of Republicans everywhere, Trump stood in front of the Reflecting Pool on the eve of Election Day and delivered a defense of a project that was doomed by algae and the shoddy work of a no-bid contractor. The project—which Trump had falsely claimed was derailed by vandalism—ran millions of dollars over budget and surely earned not a single vote in places such as Michigan, Kansas, and Alaska. Worst of all, the detour to revisit the Reflecting Pool distracted from Trump’s true closing message: that Senator Jon Husted of Ohio has a great body.
特朗普是竞选活动的迟来者，过去一个月左右的时间里，他是被说服才举行集会的。但一旦参与其中，他就坚持让选举围绕他本人和他的政绩展开，并且不承认任何失误，也不对处境艰难的人表现出任何同理心。他坚持要求许多竞选广告中出现他。他要求举办一场史无前例的中期选举政治大会，尽管出席达拉斯庆祝活动的人中似乎很少有人乐意到场。
Trump was a late entrant on the campaign trail, and had to be talked into holding rallies over the past month or so. But once he was, he insisted that the election be about himself and his successes, and make no acknowledgment of any missteps or empathy for those who are struggling. He insisted that many campaign ads feature him. He demanded a first-of-its-kind midterm political convention, though few who attended the festivities in Dallas seemed happy to be there.
特朗普全身心投入竞选，夜复一夜地在全国各地举行近两小时的集会。但这些巡回造势活动与那些过去十年间成为标志性政治事件的活动已不尽相同。
Trump threw himself into the campaign, holding nearly-two-hour rallies night after night across the country. But these road shows weren’t quite the same as those that became the defining political event of the past decade.
这些集会的规模比往常要小，户外活动也很少（部分原因是安全顾虑）。竞选活动最后两周在俄亥俄州举行的一场集会是在一个小型体育馆里进行的，其他集会则出现了大量空座。更引人注目的是集会举办的地点：近一半是在深红州举行的，特朗普过去在这些州轻松获胜，很少需要在那里竞选。这带来了规模更大、更热情的人群——密西西比州科林斯这类地方的人，比密歇根州大急流城的人更兴奋地第一次见到特朗普，而后者多年来已经举办过六场以上的集会。
They were smaller than normal, and few were outdoors (in part because of security concerns). One rally in Ohio in the campaign’s final fortnight was held in a small gym, and others featured plenty of empty seats. More striking was the rallies were held: nearly half in deep-red states where Trump has easily won in the past and has rarely needed to campaign. That led to bigger, more enthusiastic crowds—people in a place like Corinth, Mississippi, were more excited to see Trump for the first time than, say, those in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he has held more than half a dozen rallies over the years.
但地理分布也说明了一个问题：特朗普不得不访问南卡罗来纳州和蒙大拿州等共和党票仓，因为这些州的席位突然变得有得一争，他必须召唤自己的忠实支持者。但到了那里之后，特朗普真正能拿出的东西是什么呢？
But the geography also told a story: Trump had to visit Republican strongholds such as South Carolina and Montana because seats in those states were suddenly in play and his faithful had to be summoned. But once there, what did Trump really have to offer?
民调显示，选民对他一连串违背承诺感到愤怒，包括他誓言要降低物价、不发动新战争、公布爱泼斯坦文件，以及只驱逐“最坏中的最坏者”。按照传统，现任总统所属政党在中期选举中往往表现不佳，但特朗普在几个曾是他最强议题的领域——比如经济和移民——上的支持率也处于水下。他迫使多名现任参议员因不忠诚而退出，并支持了一些有问题的候选人，这一切都让更多选情变得有得一争。
Voters, per polling, are angry over his string of broken promises, including his vows to bring down prices, not start new wars, release the Epstein files, and deport only the “worst of the worst.”The parties of incumbent presidents traditionally fare poorly in the midterms, but Trump is also underwater on several of what used to be his strongest issues, such as the economy and immigration. He forced out multiple incumbent senators for being disloyal and backed some problematic candidates, all of which put more races into play.
他几乎没给共和党候选人留下什么可以拿来竞选的东西，因为选民对似乎只让富人受益的经济（这个类别包括总统的家人和内阁）反应激烈。相反，特朗普试图翻炒过去竞选中的文化战争议题，包括对跨性别手术、穆斯林恐怖分子、甚至共产主义的恐惧。
He gave Republican candidates very little to run on, as voters furiously reacted to an economy that seemed to benefit only the rich (a category that includes the president’s family and Cabinet). Instead, Trump tried to recycle culture-war issues from campaigns past, including fears about transgender surgeries, Muslim terrorists, and even communism.
他似乎不仅与公众格格不入，甚至在许多情况下与自己的党派也不一致。尽管有人警告称人工智能可能会毁灭人类（或至少大量工作岗位），特朗普仍支持这项新兴技术及其数据中心——即使公众对其持反感态度——因为科技公司在支撑股市。他支持俄亥俄州州长选举中一则有争议的攻击广告，而该州的共和党州长对此予以谴责。他站在俄罗斯一边，支持其对乌克兰的战争。他再次威胁要轰炸伊朗。而且，关于臀部的讨论实在太多，必将让后世史学家感到困惑。
He seemed out of step not just with the public but, in many cases, with his own party. Despite warnings that AI could wipe out humanity (or at least a lot of jobs), Trump backed the nascent technology and its data centers—even as the public turned on them—because tech companies are propping up the stock market. He supported a controversial attack ad in the Ohio governor’s race that the state’s Republican governor denounced. He sided with Russia in its war with Ukraine. He threatened to once more bomb Iran. And there really was a lot of talk about butts, which will surely confuse future historians.
美国人似乎并不买账。撰稿时，民主党人在大幅领先，决定性地夺取众议院。但故事的焦点在参议院：民主党人已经翻转了北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州，并轻松保住了乔治亚州。俄亥俄州、德克萨斯州以及其他深红色据点可能很快也会加入他们的行列。
Americans didn’t seem to go for it. As of this writing Democrats were well on track to decisively take the House. But the story is the Senate: Democrats have already flipped North and South Carolina and easily held on to Georgia. Ohio, Texas, and other deep-red strongholds may soon join them.
随着这些结果陆续公布，特朗普在社交媒体上转移责任，并与其竞选的核心信息相矛盾，写道：“我没有上榜，如果上了，我们本可以大获全胜！”特朗普现在处于一个新境地，而这是他不愿面对的。
As those results came in, Trump took to social media to duck blame—and contradict the central message of his campaign, writing, “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”Trump is now in a new place, and one he won’t like.
在2018年的首次中期选举中，民主党赢得了众议院的控制权，但这一胜利被共和党在参议院的获胜所抵消。众议院民主党人拖慢了总统的议程，但他们2019年因乌克兰问题发起的弹劾努力反而提振了特朗普的支持率——而且凭借强劲的经济，他当时仍对自己的连任前景充满信心。（当然，随后疫情就来了。）许多民主党人表示他们已经吸取了教训。
In his first midterm election, in 2018, Democrats gained control of the House, but that victory was offset by GOP wins in the Senate. House Democrats slowed the president’s agenda, but their 2019 impeachment effort over Ukraine only bolstered Trump’s approval ratings—and he still felt bullish about his reelection chances on the back of a strong economy. (Then, of course, came the pandemic.) Many Democrats say they’ve learned their lesson.
党内资深成员，包括可能成为下一任众议院议长的哈基姆·杰弗里斯，一直对自己的权力计划讳莫如深。民主党的支持率仍然低迷，尽管在今年选战中“不是共和党人”这一点提振了许多民主党人，但今后情况将不再如此。杰弗里斯已表示，他将专注于试图解决生活负担能力和医疗保健挑战的措施。民主党人将会大量说“不”，而既然他们似乎也将拿下参议院，他们很可能会让特朗普难以确认其任何提名人选，包括可能提名的最高法院大法官。
Senior members in the party, including Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next House speaker, have been cagey as to their plans for power. The Democratic Party’s approval ratings remain low, and although not being a Republican boosted many Democrats in this year’s campaign, that won’t be the case going forward. Jeffries has signaled that he will focus on measures to try to address affordability and health-care challenges. Democrats are going to say “no” a lot, and now that it appears that they will capture the Senate too, they will likely make it difficult for Trump to confirm any of his nominees, including possible Supreme Court justices.
但民主党的基本盘渴望追究特朗普政府的责任：为政府效率部对政府的破坏、为战争、为伪装成外交的对外商业交易、为利用总统职位牟利。与特朗普第一个任期相比，针对特朗普及其政府的腐败指控大量增多。民主党人已承诺发出传票，并让政府官员到国会听证室接受质询——前提是他们同意出席。一些与特朗普关系密切的人推测，他并不介意华盛顿有人与他作对，而且他会乐于再次与国会民主党人交锋。
But the Democratic Party’s base is hungry to hold the Trump administration accountable: for DOGE’s destruction of the government, for war, for foreign business deals masquerading as diplomacy, for profiting off the presidency. Accusations of corruption against Trump and his administration have proliferated compared with in his first term. Democrats have promised to issue subpoenas and parade administration officials through the Capitol’s hearing rooms—if they agree to show up. Some close to Trump have theorized that he doesn’t mind having a foil in Washington, and that he would be comfortable tangling with congressional Democrats again.
一位关系密切的外部顾问在讨论内部动态时以匿名为条件告诉我：“他喜欢有人可以争斗——也喜欢有人可以归咎。”
“He likes to have someone to fight—and someone to blame,” one close outside adviser told me on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal dynamics.
但特朗普对某些可能的调查心存顾虑，不希望再次被弹劾。（无论如何，民主党人可能更倾向于试图罢免一名内阁成员。）他明年可能面临的调查，或可预示2029年若民主党总统接替他后将发生什么。特朗普享有最高法院赋予的某种豁免权，他已誓言对本届政府中的许多人给予预先赦免。但顾问们表示，他对自己卸任后核心圈子面临严厉调查的前景感到不满。
But Trump is leery about some of the possible investigations and does not want to be impeached again. (Democrats might be more inclined to try to oust a Cabinet member anyway.) The probes he likely faces next year could act as a preview of what would happen in 2029 if a Democratic president follows him. Trump enjoys a sort of immunity granted by the Supreme Court, and he has vowed to give preemptive pardons to many people in this administration. Yet advisers say he is unhappy at the prospect of his inner circle facing punishing investigations once he leaves office.
今天的投票是特朗普走向无关紧要的一个明确标志。许多与他亲近的人认为，他的核心驱动力——胜过权力或金钱——是关注度。十年来，他一直遮蔽阳光，以几代人中任何其他总统都未曾有过的方式主导着话语。但随着华盛顿开始将目光越过他，这种情况将开始改变。曾经是巨人的特朗普将很快发现自己沦为次要情节。
Today’s vote is a clear marker on Trump’s road to irrelevance. Many close to him believe that his driving motivation—more than power or money—is attention. And for a decade now, he has blocked out the sun, dominating the discourse in a way that no other president has in generations. But that will begin to change as Washington begins to look beyond him. Once a colossus, Trump will quickly find himself to be a secondary storyline.
他并非会突然消失；他将力求扮演共和党造王者的角色，而且他无疑仍会激发其铁杆信徒的忠诚，即使这个群体缩小。他仍将是总司令，而即便是跛脚鸭总统在外交政策上也拥有广泛权力。重返与伊朗的战争？对古巴采取行动？重提格陵兰？随着特朗普执着于自己的政治遗产并拼命想留在聚光灯下，一切皆有可能。
It’s not as if he will suddenly vanish; he’ll aim to play GOP kingmaker, and he’ll still surely inspire loyalty from his hard-core believers, even if that group shrinks. He’ll still be commander in chief, and even lame-duck presidents have broad authority when it comes to foreign policy. A return to war with Iran? A move on Cuba? Revisiting Greenland? With Trump fixated on his legacy and desperate to stay in the spotlight, anything feels possible.
特朗普还可能开始看到共和党对他的完全效忠出现侵蚀。这场惊人的中期选举溃败表明，特朗普的本能和影响力似乎正在减弱，共和党人可能更愿意违抗他。随着下一轮总统角逐者开始涌现，共和党人将开始厘清他们后MAGA时代的未来将是什么样子——以及特朗普在其中扮演什么角色（如果有的话）。
Trump also may start to see the complete fealty of the Republican Party erode. This stunning midterms wipeout suggests that Trump’s instincts and influence seem to be waning, and Republicans may be more willing to defy him. As the next round of presidential contenders begins to emerge, Republicans will begin to sort out what their post-MAGA future will look like—and what role, if any, Trump plays in it.