美国人在中期选举中投票，结果可能定义特朗普执政的最后篇章撰稿：莎拉·史密斯中期选举将塑造国会在其总统任期最后几年的格局，但这也是一场测试，检验没有他的政治可能是什么样子。
Americans vote in midterms that could define Trump's closing chapter The midterms will shape Congress for the last years of his presidency, writes Sarah Smith, but they are also a test of what politics may look like without him.
距离总统任期结束还有两年，唐纳德·特朗普在过去十年里主导了美国政治，并以非凡的方式改变了它，如今正面临可能具有关键意义的选举。
By Sarah Smith With two years of his presidency remaining, Donald Trump, who has dominated American politics over the past decade and transformed it in remarkable ways, is facing potentially pivotal elections.
将于周二举行、决定国会控制权的中期选举，正值其共和党处于艰难时刻。
And the midterm elections on Tuesday that will decide control of Congress come at a difficult moment for his Republican Party.
选民普遍表示，他们最关心的是生活成本。部分由于总统激进的关税政策和不得人心的对伊朗战争，食品和燃料价格飙升，因此这将成为许多选民前往投票站时首要考虑的问题。
Voters overwhelmingly say they are most concerned about the cost of living. Food and fuel prices have soared in part due to the president's aggressive tariffs and unpopular war with Iran, so it will be top of mind as many head to the polls.
特朗普近几个月来面临创纪录的低支持率，一直在全力竞选，在全国各地主持了数十场集会。
Trump, who has faced record low approval ratings in recent months, has been campaigning hard, headlining dozens of rallies across the country.
但高物价是各方选民共同的担忧——这有助于解释为何他一直在原本稳操胜券的共和党领地竞选，在最后一个周末的冲刺中现身爱荷华州和堪萨斯州。
But high prices are a concern for voters on all sides - which helps explain why he has been campaigning in previously safe Republican territory, appearing in Iowa and Kansas during a final weekend blitz.
其党派也在这些传统上稳操胜券的竞选中投入了数亿美元竞选广告费，例如堪萨斯州的参议院竞选。
His party has also poured hundreds of millions of dollars of campaign advertising into these traditionally safe contests, such as the Senate race in Kansas.
“当他们开始在本该赢下的州花费辛苦赚来的美国美元做政治广告时，这就是你判断他们自觉陷入麻烦的方式，”分析竞选和选举的《库克政治报告》主编凯莉·丹恩告诉英国广播公司（BBC）。
"When they start spending hard American dollars on political advertising in a state that they should be winning, that's how you know that they think they're in trouble," Carrie Dann, the managing editor of the Cook Political Report, which analyses campaigns and elections, told the BBC.
她补充道：“堪萨斯州的开支将远超共和党此前的预期。”这指向一个在防守姿态下迎接这些选举的政党。
"The spending [in Kansas] is going to be far more than Republicans ever anticipated," she added. That points to a party that is approaching these elections on the defensive.
在许多集会上，特朗普也向选民发出了呼吁。“在这次选举中，我请求你们假装一下，请假装我就在选票上，”他在上个月说。“就假装一下。”当然，他并不在选票上。但这一呼吁——他在周日于爱荷华州再次提出——触及了一个关键问题的核心：他是否仍然是其共和党的选举资产？这个问题的答案不像以前那么简单了。
At many of his rallies, Trump has also made a plea to voters. "In this election, I'm asking you to pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot," he said last month. "Just pretend." Of course, he is not on the ballot. But this plea - which he made again in Iowa on Sunday - gets to the heart of a critical question: Is he still an electoral asset for his Republican Party? The answer to that is not as simple as it once was.
在2024年大选大获全胜后，特朗普以一股强大力量重返白宫——并拥有与之相匹配的健康支持率。在此之前，在2022年的上届中期选举期间，共和党人争相寻求他的背书，视其为取胜的关键。
Trump returned to the White House as a formidable force following his crushing 2024 election win - and had the healthy approval ratings to match. Before that, during the previous midterm elections in 2022, his endorsement was courted by Republicans who saw it as vital to success.
如今，随着与伊朗的战争拖延并让许多美国人的钱包受损，他的支持率已下滑。一加仑柴油的价格——在2月战争爆发前为3.75美元——在9月创下6.52美元的历史新高。
Now, with the war with Iran dragging on and hitting many Americans in the pocket, his approval ratings have sunk. The price of a gallon of diesel - which was $3.75 before the war started in February - hit a record high of $6.52 in September.
“我儿子刚开车横穿全国，他在每个州都给我打电话告诉我汽油价格，”一位爱荷华州选民告诉我。“我当时就像——‘天哪，这太可怕了’。”通胀也从特朗普上任时的3%升至如今的3.7%，经济学家估计，如果没有他全面的全球关税制度，通胀本会更低。
"I literally just had my son drive across the country, and he called me in every state and told me the price of gas," one voter in Iowa told me. "And I was like - 'oh my gosh, this is horrible'." Inflation has also ticked up from 3% when Trump took office to 3.7% today, and economists estimate it would have been lower without his sweeping regime of global tariffs.
共和党人担心，这种经济形势让他们在通常稳操胜券的选战中变得脆弱，这些州包括得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和堪萨斯州。
There is concern among Republicans that this economic picture has left them vulnerable in typically safe races, in states such as Texas, Ohio and Kansas.
“南部各州、中西部各州、美国腹地——那是共和党往往占优势的地方，”民调机构“共同点更多”（More in Common）全球研究总监斯蒂芬·霍金斯说。
"The southern states, the midwestern states, the American heartland - that is where Republicans tend to thrive," said Stephen Hawkins, the global director of research at the pollster More in Common.
“但那就是目前那些非常有趣的参议院选战正在上演的地方，”他说。“就在两年前的总统大选中，特朗普以10分、12分、15分优势获胜的地方，现在却是民主党极有机会赢得参议院席位的州，”他说。
"But that is where the Senate races that are so interesting are playing out right now." "Places where President Trump won by 10, 12, 15 points just two years ago in the presidential race are now states where Democrats have a very viable chance of taking a Senate seat," he said.
当我在爱荷华州询问选民时——这是一个特朗普在2024年赢得的州，且因燃料和化肥成本飙升而受到冲击——总统会让人们更倾向还是更不倾向于支持共和党，得到的回答颇具启示性。
When I asked voters in Iowa, a state Trump won in 2024 that has been hit by soaring fuel and fertiliser costs, whether the president would make people more or less likely to back Republicans - the answer was revealing.
“以目前的气候来看，我认为可能性较小，信不信由你，”保罗·罗斯在一场繁忙的大学橄榄球赛外告诉我。“作为一名共和党人，我认为这可能会有损无益。”“我认为这肯定会让选民望而却步，毫无疑问，而且我认为这很可能将民主党推向一个平时不一定有的高度，仅仅因为是唐纳德·特朗普，”扎克·欣普补充道。
"With the current climate, I would think possibly less, believe it or not," Paul Ross told me outside a busy college football game. "As a Republican myself, I would think it might be detrimental." "I think it definitely puts voters off, there's no doubt about that, and I do think it probably raises the Democratic side to a level that isn't always there, just because it's Donald Trump," added Zach Shimp.
“他把我们拖进了战争，”另一位选民罗斯·海明说。“物价和杂货价格高得离谱——高得离谱——汽油价格高得离谱。”这就是这场选举的故事。许多选民，包括在稳固的共和党州，都在经济上受损，民调显示他们可能想在周二的选票上表达这一点。
"He's got us in the war," another voter, Rose Heming, said. "Prices and groceries [are] high - sky high - gas is sky high." That is the story of this election. Many voters, including in solidly Republican states, are hurting financially and polls suggest they may want to make this known at the ballot box on Tuesday.
但认为战争、关税和物价飙升的背景将迎来民主党在众议院、参议院和州长选举中的压倒性胜利，这种想法过于简单化了。
But it is too simplistic to think this backdrop of war, tariffs and soaring price will usher in a thumping Democratic victory in the House, Senate and governors' races.
许多共和党选民对总统感到愤怒，但愤怒程度不足以让他们去投民主党的票。假设特朗普疲软的支持率会转化为对另一方日益增长的支持，这是一个错误。
Many Republican voters are angry with the president, but not so angry that they would vote for a Democrat. It is a mistake to assume that Trump's weak approval ratings translate to increasing popularity for the other side.
事实上，选举前进行的最终民调显示，特朗普的支持率约为38%。这很低——但同样的民调，包括周日发布的一项全国NBC民调，显示只有29%的选民对民主党持正面看法。选民的挫败感并不保证他们愿意在周二转换阵营。
In fact, final polls taken before the elections suggest Trump's approval rating is around 38%. That is low - but the same polls, including a national NBC poll released on Sunday, indicate that only 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively. Voter frustration is no guarantee of a willingness to switch sides on Tuesday.
“我们不喜欢干涉别人的事，”爱荷华州共和党人蒂姆·麦金农上个月告诉我，他在2024年投了特朗普的票。“所以[特朗普]一次又一次又一次地在世界舞台上干预——我们不喜欢。”
"We like to stay out of people's business," Tim McKinnon, a Republican in Iowa who voted for Trump in 2024 told me last month. "And so [Trump's] world stage interventions time after time after time - we don't love it.
“我们显然没指望他一定是个完美的唱诗班男孩，”他的妻子米歇尔补充道。“我们投票支持的是他所代表的那些阴暗面。”民主党不能指望像麦金农夫妇这样、对特朗普近期议程中的某些因素感到沮丧的选民来支持他们。他们不认为民主党会永远反映他们基督教的、保守的价值观。
"We didn't expect him to necessarily be a perfect choir boy obviously," his wife, Michelle, added. "We voted for the underbelly of what he was standing for." The Democratic Party cannot rely on voters like the McKinnons, who are frustrated with elements of Trump's recent agenda, to back them. They do not think Democrats will ever reflect their Christian, conservative values.
“汽油每加仑涨一美元不会改变我们的信仰，”蒂姆·麦金农告诉我。
"One dollar more on gas is not going to change what we believe in," Tim McKinnon told me.
如果民主党在周二晚间赢得大量席位，未必是因为选民喜爱他们——只是他们比较不讨厌民主党而已。
If Democrats do win a large swathe of seats on Tuesday night, it won't necessarily be because voters love them – they just hate them a little less.
然而，民主党已经在展望2028年总统大选，届时他们必须团结在单一候选人背后。考虑到他们明显的分歧——其中一些在本次选举周期中公开爆发，包括周末在密歇根州的分歧——这说起来容易做起来难。
The party, however, is already looking ahead to a 2028 presidential election in which they will have to unite behind a single candidate. That is easier said than done given their clear fractures - some of which spilled out publicly during this election cycle, including in Michigan over the weekend.
民主党将密切关注这些结果，以汲取2028年的经验教训。他们真的能在得克萨斯州获胜吗？他们能吸引深度共和党大本营中的农村选民吗？他们冉冉升起的新星，如佐治亚州的乔恩·奥索夫和得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科，能否名副其实？
Democrats will be closely watching these results for lessons ahead of 2028. Can they really win in Texas? Can they tempt rural voters in deep Republican strongholds? And will some of their rising stars, such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia and James Talarico in Texas, live up to the hype?
如果这些问题中的某些答案是否定的，未来一年该党将有许多值得深思的地方。而事后总结可能不会好看。
If the answer to some of these questions is no, there will be much to ponder for the party over the next year. And the post-mortem may not be pretty.
“这确实代表了一个机会，让民主党大幅扩大影响力，不仅体现在席位数量上，还体现在外界对他们能在哪些地方具有竞争力的看法上，”民调机构“更多共同点”的霍金斯说。指南：什么是美国中期选举？
"This represents an opportunity, really, for Democrats to expand a lot of their influence, not just in terms of numbers, but in terms of perception of where they can compete," Hawkins, from the pollster More in Common, said. GUIDE: What are the US midterms?
深度：美国年轻政客如此之少的真实原因 探索：美国中期选举的胜负手在哪里 核实：特朗普执政下美国经济真实表现如何 共和党的尝试，包括特朗普本人试图将民主党描绘成危险的共产主义者，并未在所有选民中奏效。
IN DEPTH: The real reasons there are so few young US politicians EXPLORE: Where the US midterms will be won and lost VERIFY: How the US economy is really doing under Trump Republican attempts, including from Trump himself, to paint the Democrats as dangerous communists have not landed with all voters.
在密歇根州底特律，经营自己理发店的妮可·威廉姆斯（Nicole Williams）道出了我采访的许多人的心声。“只要比现在强，什么都行，”她说。“社会主义？社会化？对我来说都无所谓。降低我的生活成本。”
In Detroit, Michigan, Nicole Williams - who owns her own hairdressing salon - summed up the view of many people I spoke to. "Anything is better than what we have now," she said. "Socialist? Socialised? It don't matter to me.
另一位密歇根州选民格温·杰克逊（Gwen Jackson）说：“人们只是厌倦了对美国人的不尊重，因为他是个美国人。”她指的是该州左翼民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed），特朗普曾多次攻击他。
Lower my cost of living." "People are just tired of the disrespect to Americans, because he is an American," Gwen Jackson, another Michigan voter, said, referring to the state's left-wing Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed who Trump has repeatedly attacked.
“人们只是累了，”她说。“他们准备好看到改变了。”即使一位在任总统的支持率高于特朗普，其政党在中期选举中通常也会失去席位。这加上最新的民调，意味着民主党人有信心至少赢得众议院控制权。
"People are just tired," she said. "They're ready to see a change." Even when a sitting president is more popular than Trump, their party usually loses seats in the midterms. This, combined with the latest polling, means there is confidence among Democrats that they will at least win the House of Representatives.
“关键问题是生活成本，还有那场未宣而战的战争，”民主党策略师玛丽·安妮·马什（Mary Anne Marsh）说。“每一个没有站出来对抗唐纳德·特朗普的共和党人，即将意识到相信他无敌的后果。”如果民主党赢得众议院，该党可能会试图阻挠特朗普想要通过的任何立法。考虑到他已经尽可能绕过国会，转而依靠在椭圆形办公室签署行政命令来施政，这不太可能让他担忧。
"It's the cost of living, it's the undeclared war," Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh said of the key issues. "Every Republican who did not stand up to Donald Trump is about to realise the consequences of believing he was invincible." If the Democrats do win the House, the party could try to block any legislation Trump wants to pass. That is unlikely to worry him, given he has already tried to bypass Congress as much as possible and rule byg executive orders from the Oval Office instead.
如果民主党控制众议院，能够发起的调查才会让特朗普更担心。他们还可能试图弹劾他的部分内阁成员，鉴于伊朗战争，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）被视为可能的人选。周二赢得参议院对民主党来说可能是一项艰难得多的任务。
Trump will be more concerned about the investigations Democrats will be able to launch if they take control of the House. They may also try to impeach some of his cabinet members, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth seen as a likely candidate due to the war in Iran. Winning the Senate on Tuesday is likely to be a much harder task for Democrats.
三十五个席位将进行改选，他们需要净增四个席位才能赢得控制权。如果他们在密歇根州——一个他们已掌握的关键摇摆席位——失利，他们将需要净增五个席位才能赢得参议院。
Thirty-five seats are up for election, and they will need a net gain of four to win control. If they lose in Michigan - a battleground seat they already hold - they will need a net gain of five seats to win it.
大多数关键战场州的竞选形势胶着，有几个州的民调差距甚至落在了误差范围内。值得重点关注的关键参议院竞选分别在密歇根州、得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、缅因州、阿拉斯加州和北卡罗来纳州。实际上，这些中期选举的胜负将取决于上述这些州的结果。
Most of the battleground races are close and several sit within the margin of error for pollsters. The crucial Senate races to watch are in Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska and North Carolina. This is, in reality, where these midterm elections will be won and lost.
与美国历次大选一样，民调结果有一个重要的注意事项。历史上，民调往往高估民主党、低估特朗普总统，而特朗普似乎坚信自己能再次打破民调预测。
There is, as always with American elections, an important caveat around the polls. They have historically overestimated the Democratic Party and underestimated President Trump, who appears convinced that he can once again defy them.
但如果民调关于民主党支持率激增的暗示接近事实，那么他可能面临在几十年来一直是共和党稳固大本营的州遭遇惨败的局面。
But if the polls are close to correct about the suggested surge of support for Democrats, then he could be looking at painful defeats in states that have been reliable Republican strongholds for decades.
特朗普会如何应对任何惨痛的失利，目前还是个未知数。他曾多次质疑这些选举的公正性和安全性，他在计票仍在进行中或结果宣布时再次这样做，是一个非常现实的可能性。
How Trump may respond to any stinging losses is an open question. He has repeatedly questioned the integrity and security of these elections, and the possibility that he does so again as votes are still being counted or when results are declared is a very real one.
然而，这些选举对美国人来说是一个极其重要的时刻，许多选民希望在未来两年看到真正的变革。
These elections, however, represent a hugely significant moment for Americans, many of whom want to see real change over the next two years.
对两党而言，这将是2028年总统大选前的最后一次选举检验，那次大选将决定后特朗普时代的政治面貌。而对总统本人来说，这是选民对他及其党派表现做出评判的机会。
For both parties, they will serve as the final electoral test before a 2028 presidential election that will determine what a post-Trump politics looks and feels like. And for the president himself, they are an opportunity for voters to cast judgement on how he and his party are performing.
随着特朗普试图在未来两年塑造自己的政治遗产，问题在于：国会控制权的易手——这在很大程度上被他绕过——真的能在多大程度上遏制他的总统权力？
As Trump looks to shape his legacy in the next two years, the question is whether a change in control of Congress, which he has largely bypassed, would really curb his presidency at all.