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中期选举惨败削弱特朗普,但他目前仍掌握权力Midterm carnage weakens Trump but he still wields power for now

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视频:美国中期选举结果的关键时刻Watch: Key moments from the US midterm election results

民主党在中期选举中席卷美国的尘埃尚未落定,白宫官方账号就在 X 上发布了一张照片,画面中神情严肃的唐纳德·特朗普站在椭圆形办公室的办公桌后。配文写道:“特朗普依然是你们的总统。”

As the dust was still settling on the Democratic midterm wave that crashed across America, the official White House account posted a photograph on X of a stern-looking Donald Trump standing behind his desk in the Oval Office. "Trump is still your president," the caption read.

这正是特朗普无疑想要传递的信息——一位掌权稳固、虽遭遇惨痛选举挫折却毫不屈服的总统。

It's the kind of message Trump surely wants to project – of a president firmly in charge and unbowed despite a dramatic electoral setback.

字里行间未提的是,即便失去对国会的控制,美国总统仍拥有可行使的广泛权力。而特朗普已表明,他绝不吝于突破其行政权力的界限。

Left unsaid was that even without control of Congress, American presidents still have broad powers that they can exercise. And Trump has already shown that he is more than willing to push the boundaries of his executive authority.

同样未被承认的是,特朗普总统任期的时钟正在滴答作响——对他动用手中权力将变得日益困难。

But also unacknowledged was that the clock is ticking on Trump's presidency – and it will get increasingly more difficult for him to use the powers at his disposal.

他最重要的许多举措,都是通过总统令而非共和党控制的国会通过的法律来实施的。

Many of his most significant moves have been through presidential orders rather than laws passed by the Republican-controlled Congress.

其中包括对盟友和对手一视同仁加征关税,以及在委内瑞拉和伊朗发动的军事行动。在国内,他单方面大幅削减国会批准的联邦政府各部门开支。

That includes tariffs imposed on allies and adversaries alike as well as the military operations launched in Venezuela and Iran. At home, he unilaterally slashed congressionally approved federal spending across government.

即使民主党掌控众议院和参议院多数席位,特朗普仍可在其任期最后两年继续推行此类行动——乃至更多。若民主党试图通过立法加以限制,宪法赋予了特朗普一种独特而强有力的回应手段——总统否决权,推翻否决需要的国会多数票数,多于民主党将拥有的多数优势。

Even with the Democrats' majority in the House and Senate, Trump can continue to pursue actions like these – and more – in the final two years of his term. And if the Democrats try to curtail it through legislation, the Constitution provides Trump with a uniquely formidable response – the presidential veto, which can only be overridden by congressional majorities larger than the ones that Democrats will hold.

然而,这些权力仍掌握在特朗普指尖,并不意味着他保留着行使这些权力的政治意愿。大批新当选的民主党人即将奔赴华盛顿,誓言反对他的每一步举措。而最大的障碍,可能来自特朗普自身阵营内部。

However, just because some of these powers are still at Trump's fingertips does not mean he retains the political will to do so. There are legions of new Democrats heading to Washington promising to oppose his every move. And the biggest obstacles may come from within Trump's own ranks.

两年来,总统对共和党保持着铁腕控制,通过政治奖励与赤膊上阵式的威胁相结合,让国会及全美的党内骨干保持一致。然而现在,有迹象表明他的掌控力可能正在松动。

For two years the president has displayed a vice-like grip on the Republican Party, keeping his partisan rank and file in Congress and across the US in line through a combination of political rewards and bare-knuckle threats. Now, however, there are signs that his hold may be loosening.

一些共和党人开始表现出批评其决策的意愿,这是几个月前极少有人敢做的。他自己的副总统万斯在社交媒体上发布长文,将特朗普发动、以色列参与的伊朗战争归咎为周二共和党惨败的原因。

Some Republicans have begun showing a willingness to criticise his decisions in a way few would dare even a few months ago. His own vice-president, JD Vance, penned a lengthy post on social media blaming the war in Iran that Trump launched with Israel for Tuesday's sweeping Republican defeat.

万斯写道:“如果你想辩称这值得,失去未来六年的参议院控制权值得,那就尽管辩去。但大家都知道我们为什么输了。任何关于我们何去何从的诚实对话,都必须从这一点开始。”

"If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so," Vance wrote. "But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there."

鲍文:特朗普失利限制国内权力,但对外政策恐有不同 结果:地图与图表解读美国如何投票 解析:特朗普大败五大原因 反应:愤怒的共和党人指责特朗普导致中期选举“灾难” 已有传言称,特朗普总统团队的成员可能面临清洗。据BBC美国媒体合作伙伴哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS News)报道,总统正在询问亲信顾问,是否应替换国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯——这场战争的设计师之一。总统予以否认。

BOWEN: Trump's loss limits powers at home, but it will likely be different abroad RESULTS: How America voted in maps and charts EXPLAINER: Five reasons why Trump did so badly REACTION: Angry Republicans blame Trump for midterms 'disaster' Already rumours are circulating that members of Trump's presidential team could be on the chopping block. According to BBC US media partner CBS News, the president is asking close advisers whether he should replace Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, one of the architects of the war. The president denied it.

中期选举midterms

此举将呼应小布什在2006年遭遇“惨败”后替换唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德的做法——拉姆斯菲尔德是伊拉克战争的主要推手,而那也是民主党上一次在中期选举中赢得像周二这样规模的国会多数席位。

Such a move would echo George W Bush's move to replace Donald Rumsfeld, a driving force behind the Iraq war, in response to his 2006 "thumping" – the last time Democrats won congressional majorities of Tuesday's scope in a midterm election.

美国大学政府系助理教授大卫·米勒表示:“认为需要摆脱特朗普主义和‘让美国再次伟大’(MAGA)运动的共和党人,要么会试图强调不同的政策议题,要么会试图以某种方式包装自己,显示出他们与唐纳德·特朗普之间存在一些分歧。”

"Republicans who think that they need to pivot away from Trumpism and from the [Make America Great Again] movement are going to either try to emphasise different policy issues, or they're going to try to frame themselves in ways that show some daylight between themselves and Donald Trump," said David Miller, an assistant professor of government at American University.

周二晚间,特朗普在社交媒体发帖并接受一系列媒体采访,实时阐述他将如何应对民主党人——一会儿承诺合作,一会儿又威胁要否决自由派立法。

On Tuesday night, Trump posted on social media and spoke to a series of media outlets, saying in realtime how he would deal with the Democrats – pledging co-operation one moment, and threatening vetoes of liberal legislation in the next.

随后在周三,随着建筑工人吊装起白宫舞厅的最后一根梁柱——尽管有一起诉讼试图叫停该工程——他回应了几个关于政治前途的问题。

Then on Wednesday, as construction workers raised the final beam for the White House ballroom he is building despite a lawsuit attempting to halt its progress, he responded to a few questions about the political future.

“我大概率会与民主党人相处融洽,除非他们想搞破坏,”他说,“但我拥有否决权。”1995年,共和党人在一场大选浪潮中夺取国会控制权数月后,让民主党人同样陷入困境,当时身处孤立且处于守势的比尔·克林顿总统坚称自己依然举足轻重,仍掌握着可施展的权力。“总统在此依然具有影响力,”他哀诉般地说。

"I'll get along probably with the Democrats, unless they want to be destructive," he said. "But I have the power of the veto." In 1995, months after Republicans took control of Congress in a wave election that left Democrats similarly reeling, an isolated and defensive President Bill Clinton insisted that he still mattered and that he had powers left to wield. "The president is still relevant here," he said, plaintively.

当时仍处于首个任期的克林顿有时间在政治上反弹——并在次年成功连任。然而,时间并不站在特朗普这边。

Clinton, still in his first term, had time to rebound politically – and he won re-election the following year. Time, however, is not on Trump's side.

随着共和党人舔舐伤口,他可能会试图向华盛顿的权力核心和美国公众提出类似的论点。

With Republicans licking their wounds, he may try to make a similar argument to the powers in Washington and the American public.

但随着每一天的流逝,这位热衷于主导美国政治聚光灯的男子可能会发现,他的权力——更重要的是,行使这些权力的权威——正从指缝中溜走。

But with each passing day, the man who loves to dominate the spotlight in US politics may find his powers – and, more importantly, his authority to wield them – slipping through his fingers.

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