副总统没有等待便开始自我表扬并将共和党惨败的责任推向他处。在选举翌日的废墟之中，JD·万斯在 X.com 上发布了一篇短文，将失败完全归咎于伊朗战争，并暗示结束战争是政治上的必要之举。他在公开场合这样做，向伊朗政权释放了绝望信号，在战争关键时刻削弱了其上司的地位。
The Vice President didn’t wait to pat himself on the back and assign blame elsewhere for the GOP’s electoral wipeout. Amid the rubble on the morning after the election, JD Vance posted a mini-essay on X.com to pin the defeat entirely on the war in Iran and suggest that ending it is a political necessity. By doing so in public, Mr. Vance signals desperation to Iran’s regime, undermining his boss at a critical moment in the war.“The real reason we lost is obvious,” Mr. Vance wrote. “The reason we lost is the war.”
“真正的失败原因显而易见，”万斯写道，“失败的原因就是这场战争。”腐败？他只字未提，尽管全国出口民调显示 90% 的选民认为腐败对其投票决定至关重要或非常重要。他对关税也绝口不提，尽管生活成本以 89% 位居第二。在移民问题上，其重要性与伊朗战争持平（73% 对 74%），而特朗普团队凭借严厉执法将其变成了政治弱点，万斯却树立了一个稻草人，警告不要听信“建制派”要求“特赦”的呼吁——而并无共和党人提出此类主张。
Corruption? He didn’t mention it, though 90% in the national exit poll rated it of crucial or major importance to their vote. He also had nothing to say about tariffs, even as cost of living placed second at 89%. On immigration, which scored even with the Iran war (73% vs. 74%), and which the Trump team managed to turn into a political weakness with its harsh enforcement, Mr. Vance set up a straw man by warning against “establishment” calls for “amnesty” that no Republican is calling for.
这种选择性归责绝非偶然。虽然副总统已成为关税和强硬限制移民的真信徒，但在整个伊朗战争期间，向媒体泄密的未具名人士曾暗示他反对这场战争。当万斯现在写道，“对那些愤怒并想说‘我早就说过’的人：你们是对的，你们确实早就告诉过我们”时，他想的正是他自己。
The selective blame is no accident. While the Vice President has become a true believer on tariffs and hard-line immigration restriction, unidentified leakers to the press throughout the Iran war have suggested he opposed it. When Mr. Vance now writes, “To the people who are pissed off and want to say, ‘I told you so’: you’re right, you did tell us so,” he’s thinking of himself.
引用一位不具名朋友的未列明数据，万斯写道，流失的共和党选民声称，如果共和党“1) 结束战争”，就能赢回他们。他还赞扬了建议“通过外交手段解决冲突”的“政治建议”——这正是他自己的立场，该立场在战争最初六周后拖延了战事，先是达成了一项毫无价值的四月停火协议，后又在六月达成协议，却被伊朗立即违反。在内部就结束战争的必要性发声，本可算得上光荣。
Citing unlisted data from an unnamed friend, Mr. Vance wrote that the Republican voters who strayed claim they could be won back if the GOP would “1) End the war.”He also praised the “political advice” that counseled a “diplomatic resolution to the conflict”—his own position, which dragged out the war after its initial six weeks with a worthless April cease-fire and June deal that Iran immediately violated. It could be honorable to speak up internally about the need to end a war.
但将其发布在社交媒体上，就是在告诉伊朗人，他们现在在核问题和霍尔木兹海峡谈判中占据了上风。特朗普总统将结束美国对伊朗港口的封锁和军事行动视为美国的让步，要求伊朗作为回报做出重大让步。美国在海峡的成功最近为特朗普先生赢得了筹码。现在，万斯先生宣布他的党派需要结束战争，这有助于将这种局面转变为伊朗的让步，而美国将被要求为此付出代价。
But to post it on social media is to tell the Iranians they now have the upper hand in nuclear and Strait of Hormuz negotiations. President Trump has treated an end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and military operations as a U.S. concession for which Iran would have to concede much in return. The U.S. success in the Strait has lately gained Mr. Trump leverage. Now, by announcing that his party needs an end to the war, Mr. Vance helps transform that into an Iranian concession for which the U.S. will be required to pay.
万斯先生并未列出确保和平的条款。他完全强调摆脱战争，这近乎公开劝降。这削弱了特朗普先生的灵活性，甚至可能意在限制他。至少很难看出万斯先生如何能继续可信地担任美国与伊朗谈判的首席谈判代表。
Mr. Vance doesn’t lay out terms to secure peace. His emphasis, entirely on escaping the war, comes close to a public counsel of surrender. This reduces Mr. Trump’s flexibility, and may have been intended to constrain him. At the least it’s hard to see how Mr. Vance can credibly continue as America’s lead negotiator with the Iranians.
伊朗战争、其执行极不均衡以及由此导致的燃油价格长期上涨，是共和党失利的部分原因。特朗普先生在经济方面的支持率在战争开始时已从首任期末的52%跌至38%，到10月进一步下降至29%。
The Iran war, its badly uneven prosecution, and the prolonged rise in fuel prices that resulted are part of the reason for the Republican loss. Mr. Trump’s approval rating on the economy, which had already fallen to 38% by the time the war started—down from 52% at the end of his first term—would fall further to 29% by October.
这场战争不得人心：出口民调显示，63%的人认为发动袭击是错误决定，37%认为是正确决定。但这比关税政策的民意好一些，66%的人认为关税损害经济，仅21%认为有帮助。58%的人还认为特朗普的移民执法做得太过。
The war is unpopular: 63% in the exit poll say attacking was the wrong decision and 37% the right decision. But that’s better than tariffs, which 66% say hurt the economy and only 21% say helped. Fifty-eight percent also say Trump immigration enforcement went too far.
万斯先生列出的挽回2024年特朗普选民的方法中，没有任何一条显示出自我反省，尤其是“4) 改变我们与以色列的关系”。这就是万斯先生推广、由其友人兼盟友塔克·卡尔森主导的“脑子里全是犹太人”播客生态系统传递的信息。出口民调显示，仅4%的选民将外交政策问题列为首要关切。
Nothing on Mr. Vance’s list of ways to win back Trump 2024 voters gives evidence of any self-reflection, least of all “4) Change our relationship to Israel.”That’s the message of the Jews-on-the-mind podcast ecosystem promoted by Mr. Vance and led by his friend and ally Tucker Carlson. The exit poll shows only 4% of voters rank foreign-policy issues first.
万斯先生写道：“如果你想争辩[这场战争]值得，认为失去未来6年的参议院控制权值得，那就去辩吧。辩辩看这是值得付出的代价。”万斯先生特朗普礼貌地回应，先是说万斯关于战争政治代价的看法“很大程度上是正确的”，又说“伊朗是其中的一部分”。但在每一次表态中，特朗普都特意强调：“与此同时，如果让我重来一次，我还是得这么做，因为从长远来看，这是唯一的答案。你不能让伊朗拥有核武器。”
Mr. Vance writes, “If you’d like to argue [the war] was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay.”Mr. Trump has replied politely, saying alternately that Mr. Vance was “largely correct” about the war’s political cost and that “Iran was a piece of it.”But in each comment Mr. Trump has made sure to stress, “At the same time, if I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again because long-term, it’s the only answer. You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
副总统弃船而去，为竞选总统做定位之际，特朗普面临一个抉择。美国目前在霍尔木兹海峡占据上风，封锁正在奏效。但既已付出如此高昂的政治代价，他是否会采纳万斯的建议，现在就结束战争，接受在世界眼中看起来像是伊朗胜利的条件？
While the Vice President abandons ship, positioning himself to run for President, Mr. Trump has a decision to make. The U.S. is now winning in Hormuz and the blockade is working. But having paid such a high political price, will he take Mr. Vance’s advice to end the war now on terms that look to the world like an Iranian victory?