
法国正准备迎来一天的罢工与示威,抗议生活成本高企,这将延续已逾一个月的抗议活动,与此同时,议会就明年预算的谈判仍陷入僵局。
France is bracing for a day of strikes and demonstrations over the cost of living, extending more than a month of protests, as parliamentary talks over next year’s budget remain deadlocked.
该国公私部门的主要工会发起了全国性动员,汇聚了各方不满情绪,包括2018年兴起的草根“黄马甲”运动,以及9月开始抗议教室拥挤、教师短缺和校舍破败的学生群体。
The country’s main unions from the public and private sectors have called for a nationwide mobilization, bringing together disparate sources of anger, including the grassroots Yellow Vest movement, which emerged in 2018, and students who began protesting in September against overcrowded classrooms, teacher shortages and deteriorating school buildings.
政治背景几乎不利于妥协:距离总统大选仅剩六个月,总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的批评者们正寻求展示其主张,并引导公众愤怒以强化其政治纲领。
The political backdrop is hardly conducive to compromise: With just six months to go before the presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron’s critics are seeking to showcase their agendas and channel public anger to bolster their political platforms.
“高中生和学生运动的诉求不应取决于预算法案的通过,”国民议会财政委员会主席、让-吕克·梅朗雄领导的极左翼政党成员埃里克·科克雷尔在X平台上发文称。“政府可以在旨在微调今年预算需求的议会讨论中,通过迅速开放追加拨款来回应。”
“The demands of the high school and students’ movement should not depend on the adoption of the budget bill,” Eric Coquerel, the leader of the National Assembly’s finance committee and a member of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left party, posted on X. “The government can respond by switfly opening additional credits” during parliament discussions aimed at fine tuning budget needs for this year.
10月中旬,超过50万人参加了法国各地的游行,暴力和抢劫扰乱了示威活动,并破坏了公共建筑和商店。
More than half a million people took part in marches across France in mid-October, with violence and looting disrupting demonstrations and damaging public buildings and stores.
虽然马克龙政府表示,它未对10月17日抗议活动的规模及伴随的暴力做好准备,但此后大幅加强警力部署,并要求游行在市中心外进行,使得示威活动此后基本保持和平,且傍晚时分的暴力得到遏制。与此同时,欧洲其他地区也出现了动荡,包括德国、比利时和葡萄牙。
While Macron’s government has said that it wasn’t prepared for the scale of protests on Oct. 17 and the accompanying violence, sharply increased policing since then and requirements that marches take place outside of city centers has allowed for largely peaceful demonstrations and reined-in late-day violence since then. At the same time, unrest has also emerged elsewhere in Europe, including Germany, Belgium and Portugal.
周四,铁路运营商法国国家铁路公司(SNCF)预计,本地和区域线路的列车运行将受阻,高速列车也将出现一些扰动,而巴黎地铁大部分线路预计将正常运行。码头工人也发起了罢工,教育部估计,公立小学约有18%的教职员工将参与罢工。抗议者的诉求之一是将最低工资上调幅度提高到高于原计划的水平。
On Thursday, the train operator SNCF expects disrupted traffic on local and regional lines and some disturbances to high-speed traffic, while most of the Paris metro system is expected to run. Dockworkers have also called a strike, and the education ministry estimates that some 18% of personnel will strike in public primary schools. Among the protesters’ demands is a higher-than-planned increase in the minimum wage.
极右翼候选人玛丽娜·勒庞强调了其纲领中的治安秩序部分,而梅朗雄则聚焦于社会问题和警察暴力。
Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has emphasized the law-and-order component of her program, while Mélenchon has focused on social issues and police violence.
与此同时,马克龙主要将暴力升级归咎于能源价格飙升、社交媒体和“极左派”。内政部长洛朗·努内兹表示,将动员约7万名警察,数量与上周六持平。
Macron, meanwhile, has largely blamed surging energy prices, social media and the “ultra-left” of fueling violence. Some 70,000 police agents will be mobilized, as many as last Saturday, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said.
政治和财政的不确定性已蔓延至金融市场。法国和德国10年期国债收益率之差——一个备受关注的风险感知指标,以德国债务为欧元区基准——上月达到178个基点,高于9月初的85个基点。这种水平自2011年欧元区债务危机以来尚未出现。
The political and fiscal uncertainty has spilled into financial markets. The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields — a closely watched gauge of perceived risk, with German debt serving as the euro area’s benchmark — reached 178 basis points last month, up from 85 at the beginning of September. Such levels hadn’t been approached since the euro-area debt crisis in 2011.
部分由于对赤字的担忧,以及对少数派政府能否推动议会通过削减开支存疑,投资者近几周一直在抛售法国国债。
Investors have been selling French bonds in recent weeks in part due to concerns about the deficit and doubts over whether a minority government can push spending cuts through parliament.

国民议会预计将在一读中否决预算法案,此前各反对派团体提出了大量修正案。这意味着原草案将被送往参议院进行讨论。
The National Assembly is set to reject the budget bill on a first reading this week after a flurry of amendments from different opposition groups. That means the original draft will be sent for discussion in the Senate.
政府仍可动用宪法第49.3条,在不经投票的情况下强行通过法案,但需面临不信任动议;或者以法令形式实施其预算提案,大幅压缩开支并增加税收,以实现将2027年赤字降至国内生产总值(GDP)5%的目标。
The government could still resort to Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass the bill without a vote, subject to a no-confidence motion, or use a decree implement its budget proposal to sharply constrain spending and raise tax revenue to meet its target of reducing the deficit to 5% of gross domestic product in 2027.
赤字预计将在今年扩大至经济产出的5.4%,而不断上升的借贷成本增加了压力。经济也在遭受打击:第三季度产出下降,月度消费者信心降至13年低点。
The deficit is set to widen to 5.4% of economic output this year, while rising borrowing costs add to the pressure. The economy is also suffering: Output fell in the third quarter and monthly consumer confidence fell to a 13-year low.