压倒性胜利进一步加剧了在跛脚鸭会期通过许可协议的艰难路径。
blowout win further complicates the fraught path to passing a permitting deal in the lame duck.
为何重要：为项目减少障碍是化石燃料和可再生能源行业的首要任务。
Why it matters: Cutting hurdles for projects is a top priority for fossil fuels and renewables sectors.
- 但批评者认为，参议院的计划不可接受地削弱了环境保护和部落参与。
• But critics argue the Senate plan unacceptably weakens environmental protections and tribal input.
大局观：咨询公司Capstone在一份报告中表示，民主党即将掌控国会“恶化了”该法案今年的前景。
The big picture: Dems' looming control of Congress "worsens the outlook" for the bill this year, the advisory firm Capstone said in a note.
- 该公司认为民主党人“更加有恃无恐”，会将法案推迟到2027年。
• The firm sees Democrats as "further emboldened" to punt the bill into 2027.
- 报告指出，总统“特朗普可能会向众议院共和党人施压以支持该方案，但鉴于他在中期选举后声望受损，他的政治资本可能有限。”
• President "Trump is likely to put pressure on House Republicans to support the package, but with his standing diminished in the wake of the midterms, his political capital may be limited," it states.
- 杰富瑞的分析师也认为，跛脚鸭会期支持一项使天然气管道建设更容易的方案的可能性降低。
• Analysts with Jefferies also see reduced odds of lame duck support for a package that makes it easier to build gas pipelines.
是的，但是：这项两党法案的民主党共同提案人周三辩称，现在仍是时机，参议员谢尔顿·怀特豪斯（民主党-罗德岛州）称其为“手中的鸟”，并表示“不接受它就是愚蠢的”。• 他在一份声明中说：“民主党人凭借可负担性议题参选并获胜，这项法案降低了家庭成本，将使我们能够开始兑现竞选承诺。”
Yes, but: The bipartisan bill's Democratic co-authors argued on Wednesday that now remains the time, with Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) calling it a "bird in the hand" and saying "we'd be fools not to take it." • "Democrats ran and won on affordability, and this bill lowers costs for families and will allow us to start delivering on our election promises," he said in a statement.
当前形势： Rapidan能源集团目前认为跛脚鸭会期通过的可能性为20%-25%，低于选举前的30%。
State of play: Rapidan Energy Group now sees a 20%-25% chance in the lame duck, down from 30% pre-election.
- 然而，Rapidan对2027-2028年与特朗普达成许可协议相当乐观。这挑战了许多法案支持者的观点，他们认为眼下有一个转瞬即逝的窗口。
• Yet Rapidan's rather bullish on a permitting deal with Trump in 2027-2028. That challenges the view of many bill supporters who see a fleeting opening right now.
- Rapidan的逻辑是：特朗普在第一任期内与民主党人就债务上限、政府拨款等达成了协议——有时违背了国会共和党领导人的意愿。
• Rapidan's logic: Trump struck first-term deals with Dems on the debt limit, government funding and more — at times against the will of GOP congressional leaders.
“民主党人只需要五六张共和党票就能在共和党人参与起草的法案上达到60票，而特朗普第一任期的先例……表明他可能愿意与民主党人达成协议以降低否决风险，”他们的报告指出。
"Democrats need only five or six Republican votes to reach 60 on a bill Republicans helped write, and Trump's first-term precedent ... suggests he may be willing to make deals with Democrats to reduce the veto risk," their note states.
快速了解： TD Cowen 分析师迅速将“跛脚鸭”会期通过法案的概率从 40% 下调至 25%，而 ClearView Energy Partners 公司也认为，民主党在参众两院获胜可能会削弱该法案的前景。
Catch up quick: TD Cowen analysts quickly dropped their assessment of lame duck passage from 40% to 25%, while the firm ClearView Energy Partners also argues that Dems' bicameral win could weaken the prospects.
他们怎么说：美国清洁电力协会负责人杰森·格鲁梅特周三对记者表示，该法案反映了选民对更廉价能源的诉求。
What they're saying: American Clean Power Association head Jason Grumet told reporters on Wednesday the bill reflects voters' interest in cheaper energy.
- “我认为国会的共识是，这是一个非常独特的机会，如果你不在未来三四周内推进，很难想象在未来几年内会有两党合作，”代表可再生能源、储能和输电企业的格鲁梅特说。
• "I think that the understanding in Congress is that this is a really unique opportunity, and if you don't move forward in the next three or four weeks, it's hard to imagine a bipartisan effort over the next couple of years," said Grumet, whose group represents renewables, storage and transmission companies.
另一方观点：预计将掌管自然资源委员会的众议员贾里德·哈夫曼（民主党-加利福尼亚州）主张，民主党应表明特朗普“顺从的参议院”时代已经结束。哈夫曼主张等到明年，并表示民主党应要求就他目前反对的法案举行听证会并提出修正案。
The other side: Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who is likely to helm the Natural Resources Committee, is arguing that Democrats should show that the days of Trump's "supplicant Senate" are over. Huffman, who wants to wait until next year, said Dems should demand hearings and amendments on the bill he currently opposes.
核心看点：白宫仍在推动“跛脚鸭”会期采取行动，但并未直接表明是否愿意明年就修改后的法案达成协议。
The bottom line: The White House is still pushing for lame duck action, but did not directly say whether it would be open to a deal on an altered bill next year.
- “白宫支持共和党和民主党达成的两党协议，并同意现在就是推进许可改革的时候，”一名白宫官员说。
• "The White House supports the bipartisan deal worked out between Republicans and Democrats and agrees that the time to get permitting reform done is now," a White House official said.