伦敦/米兰，11月5日——本周，几家主要央行提高了利率，不过它们显然处于紧缩周期的非常不同阶段，一些央行才刚刚开始，另一些则可能接近尾声。
LONDON/MILAN, Nov 5 - Several major central banks have raised interest rates this week, though they appear at very different stages of the tightening cycle, with some just getting started and others potentially nearing the end.
政策制定者仍对通胀保持警惕，利率前景将部分取决于中东冲突的事态发展及其对能源价格的影响，自民主党在美国中期选举中大获全胜以来，能源价格已经下跌。
Policymakers remain wary of inflation, and the outlook for interest rates will depend in part on developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on energy prices, which have fallen since Democrats swept the US midterm elections.
英国央行周四进行了三年多来的首次加息，而澳大利亚央行本周进行了2026年的第五次加息，现在可能已经完成。
The Bank of England raised rates for the first time in more than three years on Thursday, while the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its fifth increase of 2026 this week, and could now be done.
美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行上周均维持利率不变，但都为进一步加息留有余地。以下是十国集团发达经济体央行的政策利率排名，从高到低：1/ 澳大利亚 澳大利亚央行本周将现金利率上调至4.85%，为18年来的最高水平。
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all left rates unchanged last week but kept the door open to further increases. Here’s where central banks in the Group of 10 developed economies stand, ranked from highest to lowest policy rate: 1/ AUSTRALIA The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85% this week, the highest level in 18 years.
然而，投票结果出人意料地接近，且该行基调不那么鹰派，表明政策制定者可能接近其紧缩行动的尾声。市场并未消化进一步加息的预期。
However, the vote was unexpectedly close and the bank struck a less hawkish tone, suggesting policymakers may be nearing the end of their tightening campaign. Markets are not pricing in further increases.
2/ 挪威 挪威央行周四如预期维持利率不变，此前该行今年已两次加息。
2/ NORWAY Norges Bank left rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected, after raising them twice this year.
该央行重申，为遏制通胀，仍有可能进一步收紧政策，并指出中东冲突继续给物价前景带来不确定性。
The central bank reiterated that further tightening remains possible to contain inflation, noting that conflict in the Middle East continues to create uncertainty over the outlook for prices.
3/ 美国 美联储上周维持利率不变，等待通胀方面的进一步证据，并称通胀仍处于高位。
3/ UNITED STATES The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged last week, awaiting further evidence on inflation, which it said remained elevated.
在9月加息后，总统唐纳德·特朗普多次呼吁降低利率，并指责政策制定者“充满敌意”且“党派偏见”。美联储主席凯文·沃什拒绝了这些指责，强调央行的独立性。
President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for lower rates and accused policymakers of being "hostile" and "partisan" after September’s rate increase. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh rejected those accusations, stressing the central bank’s independence.
市场定价显示，12月加息的概率为80%，并预计2027年将进一步收紧政策。
Markets are pricing an 80% chance of a rate increase in December and expect further tightening in 2027.
4/ 英国 英格兰银行周四时隔三年多首次加息，将政策利率上调至4%。
4/ BRITAIN The Bank of England raised rates for the first time in more than three years on Thursday, taking its policy rate to 4%.
英格兰银行表示，如果中东冲突持续，至少还会再加息一次，并预计英国通胀将在2027年中期升至5%左右。
The BoE said at least one further increase was likely if the Middle East conflict continues and projected British inflation would rise to around 5% in mid-2027.
货币政策委员会全体成员均投票支持加息，其中一名成员支持幅度更大的加息。
All members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise rates, with one backing a larger increase.
5/ 新西兰 新西兰储备银行上周以微弱多数票决定维持官方现金利率在2.75%不变，而非实施第三次连续加息，令市场感到意外。行长安娜·布雷曼表示，12月加息的可能性“很高”。
5/ NEW ZEALAND The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets last week by keeping its official cash rate at 2.75% in a narrow vote rather than delivering a third consecutive increase. Governor Anna Breman said the chances of a rate rise in December were "high".
6/ 欧元区 欧洲中央银行上周维持利率不变，但警告通胀风险正在上升。周三公布的数据显示，10月通胀加速升至三年高位。
6/ EURO ZONE The European Central Bank left rates unchanged last week but warned inflation risks were rising. Data on Wednesday showed inflation accelerated to a three-year high in October.
决策者还在密切关注法国债务风险溢价的大幅上升，这源于投资者对该国债务负担和财政前景不确定性的担忧。欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德还宣布提前辞职。
Policymakers are also monitoring a sharp rise in France’s debt risk premium, driven by investor concerns about the country’s debt burden and uncertain fiscal outlook. ECB President Christine Lagarde also announced her early resignation.
7/ 加拿大 加拿大央行上周按预期时隔三年多首次加息，但行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆表示，政策仍略显宽松。
7/ CANADA The Bank of Canada raised its key rate for the first time in more than three years last week, as expected, but Governor Tiff Macklem said policy remained slightly accommodative.
该行将利率上调25个基点至2.5%，仍低于其估计的2.75%中性利率水平——即既不限制也不刺激经济的水平。
The bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, still below the 2.75% level it estimates is neither restrictive nor expansionary for the economy.
8/ 瑞典 瑞典央行长期以来在主要央行中属于较为鸽派的阵营，周三时隔2023年以来首次加息，将政策利率上调至2%。在通胀担忧加剧、增长担忧缓和的背景下，此举在预期之中。
8/ SWEDEN Sweden’s Riksbank, long among the more dovish major central banks, raised rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday, taking its policy rate to 2%. The move was widely expected after inflation concerns intensified and growth fears eased.
决策者发出进一步加息的信号，尽管货币市场并未完全定价在2027年3月前会有另一次行动。9/ 日本 日本央行上周按预期维持利率不变。
Policymakers signalled further increases, although money markets are not fully pricing another move until March 2027. 9/ JAPAN The Bank of Japan also kept rates steady last week, as expected.
该银行宣布，在近14年致力于实现通胀目标的努力中取得胜利，并就物价压力释放警惕信号，暗示可能很快再次加息。该行还小幅上调了通胀预测。近期数据显示物价压力正在扩大。
The bank declared victory in its nearly 14-year effort to achieve its inflation target and signalled vigilance over price pressures, suggesting another increase could come soon. It also nudged up its inflation forecasts. Recent data has pointed to broadening price pressures.
10/ 瑞士 预计瑞士国家银行未来几个月将把政策利率维持在0%。其9月会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为货币条件适合将通胀维持在目标范围内。
10/ SWITZERLAND The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep its policy rate at 0% in the coming months. Minutes from its September meeting showed policymakers believed monetary conditions were appropriate to keep inflation within target.
10月通胀升至近三年来最高水平，但1.5%的通胀率仍处于良好可控范围。
Inflation rose to its highest level in nearly three years in October, but, at 1.5%, remains well contained.
低收益率应有助于防止瑞士法郎过度升值，尽管今年地缘政治紧张局势增加了对避险资产的需求。
Low yields should help prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, although geopolitical tensions have increased demand for safe-haven assets this year.