伦敦，10月29日：主要央行本周暂停加息，但绝非就此收手，因能源价格徘徊在数月高位，且中东冲突仍无解决迹象。
LONDON, Oct 29 : Major central banks took a break from interest rates rises this week, but they are by no means done, with energy prices near multi-month highs and no resolution to the conflict in the Middle East in sight.
美联储和欧洲央行本周均维持利率不变，但发出信号称通胀高于目标，仍有工作要做。欧洲央行也成为焦点，因行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德宣布将提前卸任。
The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank both kept rates steady this week, but signaled with inflation above target they still have work to do. The ECB is also in focus as President Christine Lagarde announced she would step down early.
日本央行本周晚些时候大概率维持现状，但下周的央行会议料将迎来加息，其中包括英格兰银行2026年的首次加息。
The Bank of Japan is likely to stay on hold later this week, but next week's central bank meetings should see hikes, including from the Bank of England, its first of 2026.
以下是十国集团（G10）发达经济体央行的利率立场，按政策利率从高到低排序：1/ 澳大利亚 澳大利亚储备银行今年已加息四次。
Here's where central banks in the Group of 10 developed economies stand, ranked from highest to lowest policy rate. 1/ AUSTRALIA The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked interest rates four times this year.
其下一次政策决定将于11月3日公布，市场认为再次加息可能性很大，得益于一份火热的通胀数据以及行长米歇尔·布洛克的鹰派言论。
Their next policy decision is on November 3, and markets see a high chance of another hike, boosted by a hot inflation print and hawkish comments from governor Michele Bullock.
2/ 挪威 挪威央行也将于下周召开会议，此前它在5月意外加息让市场措手不及，并于9月再次加息，当时为进一步收紧留有余地。
2/ NORWAY Norges Bank also meets next week after catching markets off guard with a hike in May and repeating the move in September, when it left the door open for additional tightening.
其9月核心通胀年率维持在3.0%，略高于央行2.9%的预测。
Its annual core inflation held at 3.0 per cent in September, slightly above the central bank's 2.9 per cent forecast.
3/ 美国 美联储周三维持利率不变，以等待下周美国中期选举以及更多通胀证据，称通胀“依然居高不下”。
3/ UNITED STATES The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged on Wednesday ahead of next week's U.S. midterm elections while awaiting further evidence on inflation, which “remained elevated.”
总统唐纳德·特朗普多次呼吁降息，近期在9月加息后指责决策者“充满敌意”且“党派化”。美联储主席凯文·沃什驳回这些指责，强调央行的独立性。
President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts and recently accused policymakers of being "hostile" and "partisan" after September's rate increase. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh rejected those accusations, stressing the central bank's independence.
交易员预计12月加息概率为80%，并预见2027年至少有一次、很可能是两次进一步加息。
Traders price 80 per cent chance of a hike in December and see at least one, likely two, further moves in 2027.
4/ 英国 英格兰银行今年迄今尚未加息，但这种情况下周大概率将改变。
4/ BRITAIN The Bank of England has not raised rates this year so far, but that will likely change next week.
市场几乎完全预期将加息，近期数据提供了支撑，包括高于预期的9月通胀和工资增长加快。
Markets are almost fully pricing a hike, backed by recent data including hotter-than-expected September inflation and a pickup in wage growth.
英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利早就警告过，能源价格维持高位的时间越长，加息的可能性就越大。
Governor Andrew Bailey has long warned the likelihood of a hike grows the longer energy prices stay high.
5/ 新西兰 新西兰储备银行周三出人意料地将基准官方现金利率维持在2.75%，而非连续第三次加息，投票结果非常接近。
5/ NEW ZEALAND The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised on Wednesday by keeping its benchmark official cash rate at 2.75 per cent in a narrow vote rather than hiking for the third time in a row.
行长安娜·布雷曼周四表示，该行12月加息官方现金利率的可能性“很大”。市场认为这一概率约为80%。
Governor Anna Breman said on Thursday chances the bank will hike the official cash rate in December are "high" Markets see roughly an 80 per cent probability of that.
6/ 欧元区 欧洲央行实施了市场参与者认为属于鹰派立场的维持利率不变，虽然维持利率不变，但警告通胀风险正在上升。
6/ EURO AREA The European Central Bank delivered what market participants deem a hawkish hold, leaving rates unchanged but warning that inflation risks were rising.
央行面临的最紧迫挑战是法国债务风险溢价急剧上升，这源于投资者对该国债务负担和财政前景不确定性的日益担忧。行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周四辞职，以便能在法国和全球政治事务上发挥作用。
The central bank's most immediate challenge is the sharp rise in France's debt risk premium, driven by growing investor concerns over the country's debt burden and uncertain fiscal trajectory President Christine Lagarde resigned on Thursday so she could weigh in on political matters in France and globally.
7/ 加拿大 加拿大央行周三时隔三年多首次上调关键利率，符合普遍预期，但行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆表示政策仍略显宽松。
7/ CANADA The Bank of Canada raised its key rate for the first time in more than three years on Wednesday, as widely expected, but Governor Tiff Macklem said policy remained slightly accommodative.
央行加息25个基点至2.5%，仍低于加拿大央行估计的对经济既不具限制性也不具扩张性的2.75%。
The central bank hiked by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent, still below the 2.75 per cent the BoC estimates is neither restrictive nor expansionary for the economy.
加拿大央行还将2027年通胀预测从7月预测的2.0%上调至3.1%。
The BoC also raised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 3.1 per cent from the 2.0 per cent predicted in July.
8/ 瑞典 瑞典央行长期处于鸽派阵营，现在看来将加息，市场定价显示下周加息概率约为80%。
8/ SWEDEN Sweden's Riksbank, long in the dovish camp, now looks set for a rate hike, with markets pricing around an 80 per cent chance of one next week.
瑞典央行行长本月早些时候表示，由于经济表现好于预期，且通胀超出目标的风险增加，加息理由充分。9/ 日本 日本央行预计本周将维持利率不变。
Sweden's central bank chief earlier this month said that there was a strong case for a hike as the economy has been performing better than expected, and the risk of inflation overshooting its target has grown. 9/ JAPAN The Bank of Japan is set to keep rates steady this week.
不过，预计央行将发出信号，表明已准备好继续提高借贷成本，消息人士透露，它还可能上调通胀预测。近期数据显示价格压力正在扩大。
But, the central bank is expected to signal its readiness to keep raising borrowing costs, and sources told Reuters that it may also raise its inflation forecast. Recent data has pointed to broadening price pressures.
然而，市场并未完全将日本央行再次加息的时间定价在2027年1月之前。
Markets however aren't fully pricing in another hike from the BOJ until January 2027.
10/ 瑞士 瑞士国家银行（SNB）预计将在未来几个月维持政策利率在0%。其9月会议纪要显示，决策者认为货币条件“适宜”，足以在中期内将通胀维持在目标区间内。
10/ SWITZERLAND The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set to keep its policy rate at 0 per cent for the coming months. Minutes of its September meeting showed policymakers thought monetary conditions are "appropriate" to keep inflation within its target range over the medium term.
低收益率应能防止法郎汇率过度大幅升值，尽管地缘政治紧张局势在2026年经常推动投资者涌向避险资产。
Low yields should prevent the franc currency from appreciating too sharply, even though geopolitical tensions have often driven investors towards safe-haven assets in 2026.