挪威央行本周很可能将借贷成本维持不变，同时重申如有需要将再次收紧政策以遏制通胀的选项。
Norway’s central bank will probably keep borrowing costs on hold this week while restating the option of tightening again if needed to tame inflation.
外界普遍预计，行长艾达·沃尔登·巴切及其同事将在周四把利率维持在4.5%。此次所谓的临时会议不会公布新的政策路径或经济预测。
Governor Ida Wolden Bache and her colleagues are widely expected to leave their interest rate at 4.5% on Thursday. The so-called interim meeting won’t include a new policy path or economic forecasts.
投资者将从中寻找线索，判断官员们在今年已累计加息50个基点之后，准备在多大程度上再次采取行动。
Investors will seek clues on how prepared officials are to act again after already delivering 50 basis points of hikes this year.
政策制定者上次加息是在9月，目前正在评估这一更紧缩立场的效果，而与此同时，其他央行也在采取行动遏制成本压力。
Having last raised rates in September, policymakers are now assessing the impact of that tighter stance at a time when peers are also acting to contain cost pressures.
挪威的基础通胀率自2022年初以来一直超过2%，目前停留在3%，而失业率仍接近多年低点。
Norway’s underlying inflation has exceeded 2% since early 2022 and is currently stuck at 3%, while unemployment remains near multi-year lows.
与这一图景形成缓冲的是，在信贷成本上升的背景下，这个能源资源丰富经济体的增长势头有所放缓，同时挪威克朗兑欧元汇率接近四年高位，使输入性价格增长的风险保持在较低水平。
Tempering that picture, momentum in the energy-rich economy has eased amid higher credit costs, while the Norwegian krone is trading near its highest in four years versus the euro, keeping the risk of imported price growth low.
“挪威央行需要看到通胀明确向2%目标靠拢的证据，才会发出降息信号，”北欧银行奥斯陆首席经济学家谢蒂尔·奥尔森表示。“而这在2028年之前仍不太可能发生。”
“Norges Bank needs to see clear evidence that inflation is converging toward the 2% target before signaling rate cuts,” said Nordea Bank Abp’s Oslo-based chief economist Kjetil Olsen. “That is still not likely to happen before 2028.”
在9月采取行动后，政策制定者表示，他们可能需要将利率“在一段时间内维持在高位”，并补充说，如果需要在“合理的时间范围内”将通胀降至2%的目标，他们准备再次加息。与从澳大利亚到邻国瑞典的全球同行不同——这些央行本周已经加息——挪威央行采取行动完全不在预期之中。
After acting in September, policymakers said they might need to keep their rate “elevated for a time,” adding that they’re ready to lift it again if required to bring inflation down to their 2% goal “within a reasonable time horizon.”Unlike global counterparts from Australia to neighboring Sweden, which have already raised rates this week, a Norwegian move isn’t at all expected.
隔夜掉期市场的交易员目前计入挪威央行周四加息的可能性为4%。他们认为12月将加息9个基点，低于一周前预期的16个基点。
Traders in overnight swaps are pricing in a 4% chance of a Norges Bank hike on Thursday. They see 9 basis points of a hike in December, down from 16 basis points seen a week ago.
彭博社上月中期调查的经济学家绝大多数预计，利率不会在4.5%之上进一步收紧。他们预测明年最后一个季度将降息。
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the middle of last month overwhelmingly anticipated no further tightening beyond 4.5%. They forecast a rate cut in the final quarter of next year.
瑞典北欧斯安银行分析师埃里卡·达尔斯特和玛尔特·艾德在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，委员会将等待更多数据后再重新评估政策前景，因此会重复其‘长期维持高位’的指引”，并且会“同时重申在必要时准备采取行动的立场”。“我们认为政策利率的峰值已经达到。”
“We believe the committee will await more data before reassessing the policy outlook and thus repeat its ‘high for longer’ guidance” and that it will “simultaneously reiterate a readiness to act if necessary,” SEB AB’s analysts Erica Dalstø and Marthe Eide said in a report. “We believe the policy-rate peak has been reached.”