瑞典央行（Riksbank）即将在本周上调借贷成本，加入全球紧缩行列以防范通胀。
Riksbank is poised to raise borrowing costs this week, joining the global tightening push to guard against inflation.
据彭博社调查的18位经济学家一致预测，斯德哥尔摩的政策制定者将于周三将基准利率从1.75%上调至2%。这将是瑞典央行一年来的首次行动，也是自2023年以来的首次加息。
Policymakers in Stockholm will increase their benchmark interest rate to 2% from 1.75% on Wednesday, according to all 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the Riksbank’s first move in a year, and its first hike since 2023.
得益于扩张性财政政策和出口增加，瑞典经济前景好转，促使官员转变立场。通胀一直较为温和，但随着能源成本上升和货币走弱，更强劲的增长有可能推动物价加快上涨。
Brightening economic prospects in Sweden, helped by expansionary fiscal policy and increasing exports, are spurring officials to shift stance. Inflation has been muted, but together with higher energy costs and a weakening currency, stronger growth threatens to drive faster price increases.
财政部预计，今年GDP将增长3%，几乎是2025年预期增速的两倍。瑞典央行本身不会在此次所谓的“临时决定”中发布新的经济预测或利率路径。
The finance ministry expects GDP to rise 3% this year, almost twice as much as in 2025. The Riksbank itself won’t present new economic forecasts or a rate path in this so-called interim decision.
9月时，官员预计11月加息的可能性约为65%，随后在明年第一季度再加息25个基点。
In September, officials projected around a 65% likelihood of a November increase followed by a further 25 basis-point move in the first quarter of next year.
“我们认为他们会加息，并表示9月预测的政策利率路径在很大程度上仍然有效，”瑞典SEB AB银行策略师阿曼达·桑德斯特伦（Amanda Sundström）在接受采访时表示。“核心通胀比他们预期的略低，但增长方面给了他们上行惊喜。”多家同业央行要么已经收紧政策，要么也准备这样做。除了英格兰银行（英国央行）本周可能加息外，自伊朗战争爆发导致能源价格飙升以来，七国集团（G7）其他央行均已至少加息一次。
“We think they’ll hike and say that the policy rate from the September forecast is largely still in play,” said SEB AB strategist Amanda Sundström in an interview. “Core inflation has been a bit lower than they expected, but they have been surprised on the upside by growth.”Several peers have either already tightened, or they’re set to do so too. Aside from the Bank of England, which is likely to hike rates this week, central banks from around the Group of Seven have increased borrowing costs at least once since the outbreak of the Iran war caused energy prices to spike.
彭博经济学观点……“价格压力的扩散强化了我们对加息的预期。我们预计瑞典央行将在11月和3月各加息25个基点，将政策利率推升至2.25%。”——瑞典经济学家塞尔瓦·巴哈尔·巴齐基（Selva Bahar Baziki）。点击此处查看完整报告。
What Bloomberg Economics says…“The broadening in price pressure strengthens our call for rate hikes. We expect the Riksbank to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points in November and again in March, taking it to 2.25%.”—Selva Bahar Baziki, Sweden economist. For the full note, click here.
瑞典央行（Riksbank）9月会议纪要显示，行长埃里克·特德恩（Erik Thedéen）倾向于本月加息，他表示：“目前我们仍可全帆航行，但到了11月，我们可能需要减少帆面。”副行长安娜·塞姆（Anna Seim）也支持这一举措，“除非发生什么事推翻我目前的看法。”其他三位董事会成员则更为谨慎，他们认可加息的预测，但未明确时间点。
Minutes of the Riksbank’s September meeting showed Governor Erik Thedéen favored a hike this month, saying that “for now, we can still sail in full sail, but in November we probably need to reduce the sail area.”Deputy Governor Anna Seim also backed such a move “unless something happens to overturn my current view.”The three other board members have been more cautious, endorsing the projection for higher rates without specifying timing.
瑞典斯韦德银行（Swedbank AB）分析师耶斯珀·汉松（Jesper Hansson）在一份报告中表示，这三位成员中的一位可能会在11月对加息提出保留意见，反映出“对未来通胀的不确定性”。
One of them may enter a reservation against a hike in November, reflecting “uncertainty surrounding inflation going forward,” said Swedbank AB analyst Jesper Hansson in a report.
他补充称，9月以来公布的经济数据仍“非常吻合”瑞典央行的预测，使其有望按计划加息。当月的前瞻指引已反映出观点的转变，此前曾发出长期暂停加息的信号。
Economic data published since September have still “aligned very well” with the Riksbank’s forecasts, putting it on track for a hike, he added. Guidance that month already reflected a shift in view after earlier signals for a long rate pause.
斯韦德银行预计，瑞典央行将重申其利率路径，暗示将在明年3月或5月加息至2.25%，并在2027年下半年再次加息的概率为70%。
Swedbank expects the Riksbank to restate its rate path implying a hike to 2.25% in March or May, and a 70% probability of another hike in the second half 2027.
相比之下，斯韦德银行自身的预测认为，由于经济增长放缓，第三次加息不会实现。而瑞典商业银行（SEB）的桑德斯特伦（Sundström）则预期，在2028年转向降息前，将有三次每次25个基点的加息。
Swedbank’s own forecast is for that third hike not to materialize because of slowing growth. By contrast, Sundström at SEB expects three moves quarter-point hikes before a pivot to cutting in 2028.
由于9月大选结果胶着，联盟组阁谈判仍在继续，瑞典目前由看守政府领导。离任政府将于11月12日提交临时预算案，延续现有政策而非推出新举措。
Sweden is led by a caretaker government while coalition talks continue after a tight election outcome in September. The outgoing administration will present an interim budget on Nov. 12, extending existing policies rather than introducing any new ones.