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卡济米尔称:欧洲央行将不得不再次加息,幅度尚不确定ECB will have to raise rates again, extent uncertain, Kazimir says

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2026年6月30日,在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行论坛上,斯洛伐克央行行长彼得·卡日米尔进入会场参加上午的会议。路透社/佩德罗·罗沙Slovakia's central bank governor Peter Kazimir enters for the morning session at the ECB Forum, in Sintra, Portugal June 30, 2026. REUTERS/Pedro Rocha

斯洛伐克央行行长彼得·卡济米尔表示,欧洲央行将不得不再次加息,以防止高通胀根深蒂固,且市场可能低估了平抑价格压力所需的举措。

The European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates again to prevent high inflation from getting entrenched and markets may be underestimating what is needed to quell price pressures, Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir said.

欧洲央行上周维持利率不变,但此后多位政策制定者主张,鉴于他们认为最终将引发第二轮效应的极高能源成本,欧洲央行应尽早而非推迟再次加息。

The ECB kept rates unchanged last week but a number of policymakers since then have made the case for adding to the ECB's two rate hikes sooner rather than later, given sky-high energy costs that they argue will eventually set off second-round effects.

作为由27名成员组成的管理委员会中的鹰派人物,卡济米尔周一表示:“对我而言,问题越来越不再是是否需要采取进一步行动,而是需要多少更多的行动。”

"For me, the question is increasingly not whether further action will be needed but how much more will be required," Kazimir, a hawkish voice on the 27-member Governing Council, said on Monday.

他补充道:“市场可能仍然低估了所需的举措。问题不在于某一次会议或某一次行动。这是将通胀带回目标并将其保持在那里所需的路径。”

"Markets may still underestimate what is required. The issue is not one meeting or one move. It is the path needed to bring inflation back to target and keep it there," he added.

金融市场目前预计,欧洲央行在明年将加息两到三次,随后才会缓慢回落,因为基于市场的通胀指标表明,未来数年价格增长仍将远高于欧洲央行2%的目标。

Financial markets now see between two and three rate hikes from the ECB over the next year before a slow retreat, as market-based inflation indicators suggest that price growth will be well above the ECB's 2% target for years to come.

欧洲央行上周四维持利率不变的前提是,第二轮通胀效应尚未显现,工资增长温和,且经济增长可能会受到飙升的长期借贷成本的打击。

The ECB held rates unchanged last Thursday on the premise that second-round inflation effects have yet to take hold, wage growth is muted and economic growth is likely to take a hit from surging longer-term borrowing costs.

But Kazimir said these were not necessarily as reassuring as some think.他表示,在企业转嫁成本之前,成本压力就可能积聚,而且在更广泛的价格压力出现在数据中之前,预期就可能发生转变。他说:“等待确定性未必能造就好的政策。”

But Kazimir said these were not necessarily as reassuring as some think. He said cost pressures could build before businesses pass them on and that expectations could shift before wider price pressures appeared in the data. "Waiting for certainty does not necessarily make for good policy," he said.

卡济米尔表示,这也意味着增长放缓并不一定会削弱通胀,因为成本压力已经积聚了数月。

This also means that the slowdown in growth does not necessarily weaken inflation since cost pressures have already been building for months, Kazimir said.

他补充说,此外,由于政府预算正在缓冲经济,经济增长相对稳健,而缺乏财政审慎也可能维持价格压力。

Moreover, growth is relatively solid because government budgets are buffering the economy and a lack of fiscal prudence can also keep price pressures up, he added.

卡济米尔说:“上周的暂停并不是终点线。我们应该在高通胀开始让人觉得正常之前采取行动。”

"Last week's pause was not a finish line," Kazimir said. "We should act before high inflation starts to feel normal."

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