
欧洲央行管理委员会成员格迪米纳斯·西姆库斯表示,鉴于各项数据表明物价压力仍在持续上升,央行可能需要再次加息。
The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates again because data suggest price pressures keep building, Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said.
这位立陶宛央行行长在采访中指出,9月份的通胀率数据高于预期,能源成本也一直高于预测值,劳动力市场则依然保持强劲态势。
September’s inflation reading came in above estimates, energy costs have been higher than predicted and the labor market remains rather strong, the Lithuanian central-bank chief said in an interview.
他在曼谷出席国际货币基金组织会议时称,虽然年底是否加息还需依据更多数据来决定,但本月采取加息措施的可能性也不能排除。
While a decision to hike rates at the end of the year would be based on more data, action this month can’t be excluded, he said in Bangkok, where he’s attending the International Monetary Fund meetings.
“自9月以来,我们获得了更多迹象,表明或许有必要进一步收紧货币政策,”西姆库斯说道。“从政策制定者的角度来看,我们当然希望在掌握尽可能多的数据后再作决策,而下一次此类会议定于12月举行。不过我们也不能忽视10月份还有一次会议这一事实。” 今年,为应对中东战争引发的能源价格暴涨,欧洲央行已先后两次加息。目前市场及经济学家普遍预期央行还会继续加息,但对于利率最终会升至何种水平则存在分歧。
“We’ve received more evidence since September that suggest some tightening of monetary policy might be needed,” Simkus said. “From a policymaker’s perspective, you want to take decisions when you have the largest amount of data available, and the next such meeting is December. But you also can’t ignore the fact that we have a meeting in October.”The ECB already raised rates twice this year in response to the energy-price shock triggered by war in the Middle East. Markets and economists anticipate further action, though they differ over how high borrowing costs will rise.
比利时央行行长皮埃尔·温施周三在接受彭博电视采访时称:“即便目前不确定性仍很大,我们很可能仍需再次加息。”
Belgian central-bank governor Pierre Wunsch told Bloomberg Television on Wednesday that “we are probably going to have to hike again,” even if uncertainty remains high.
西姆库斯表示,截至目前,石油与天然气价格上涨尚未引发明显的第二轮通胀效应,这一观点与欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德此前的表态一致。但他也警告称:“能源价格居高不下的时间越长,这种效应扩散的可能性就越高。” 另一方面,国债收益率的上升则起到了抑制通胀的作用。对于近期法国国债市场出现抛售潮的情况,西姆库斯表示自己并不太过担忧。
Simkus said that so far there aren’t any evident second-round effects from the increase in oil and gas costs, echoing earlier remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde. But he warned that “the longer energy prices stay elevated, the higher the probability that they will spread.”A factor working in the opposite direction is the increase in sovereign yields, Simkus said, while cautioning that he’s not too worried about euro-area bond markets, where France led a recent selloff. “It’s very important to distinguish between market fragmentation and legitimate repricing of sovereign risk,” he said.
“区分市场碎片化现象与主权风险定价的正常变动至关重要,”他说道。“我认为法国国债收益率的上升主要是经济因素所致——市场正在对债务水平、政治不确定性以及财政基本面进行重新定价。”西姆库斯指出,不同国家出现不同的市场借贷成本“在某种程度上属于正常现象”。
“I see the rise in French sovereign yields as a phenomenon coming particularly from the economic developments as markets are pricing the debt level, the political uncertainties and the fiscal fundamentals.”Simkus observed that “to some extent it’s normal” that different countries face different market borrowing costs. “Not every increase in sovereign yields,” he added, “should be interpreted as market fragmentation.”
“并非所有主权收益率的上升都应被视作市场碎片化的表现,”他补充道。目前欧洲央行拥有名为‘传导保护工具’的危机应对手段,但该工具尚未启用。西姆库斯暗示,至少现阶段尚无动用该工具的必要。
With its Transmission Protection Instrument, the ECB has a yet-unused crisis-fighting tool. Simkus signaled that at least for now, there’s no need to activate it. “I do believe that things will be settled,” he said.
“我相信局势终会趋于稳定,”他说,“目前我认为欧洲央行并无介入的必要。”西姆库斯还谈到了欧洲央行的最低准备金率这一议题。目前各银行须将相当于特定负债额1%的资金——主要是客户存款——存入央行的专门账户,且这些资金不享受利息回报。
“I definitely don’t see a role for the ECB at this junction.”Simkus touched on the separate issue of the ECB minimum reserve requirement. Banks must currently hold 1% of specific liabilities, mainly customers’ deposits, in a special account at the central bank that isn’t remunerated.
关于这一准备金率的规定,相关讨论已持续多时。若提高该比率,欧元区各央行便可减少向银行支付的利息支出,从而弥补因实施量化宽松政策而遭受的损失。
Discussions about the requirement have lingered for a while. By increasing it, the region’s central banks would save on interest payments to banks, helping them address losses accrued as a result of quantitative easing.
他认为,这一规定属于货币政策框架的“结构性组成部分”,而非“需要主动调控的工具”。“我们不应根据经济与货币形势的变化来调整准备金率,”西姆库斯说道,不过他也表示“对此展开讨论并无不妥”,且当前的比率水平也“并非不可更改”。
It’s a “structural part” of the monetary-policy framework, he argued, rather than an “actively managed instrument.”“We shouldn’t change the reserve requirement in response to economic and monetary conditions,” Simkus said, while adding that “there’s nothing wrong with discussing it” and that the current level isn’t “carved in stone.”