经济学家表示，新西兰央行可能在12月和2月的下两次会议上加息，随后暂停。
New Zealand’s central bank will likely raise its key interest rate at its next two meetings in December and February before pausing, economists say.
彭博社调查的全部19位经济学家预计，新西兰储备银行将于12月9日将官方现金利率上调四分之一个百分点至3%。17位分析师中有11位预计2月将进一步加息至3.25%，而6位预计不变。
The Reserve Bank will raise the Official Cash rate by a quarter-percentage point to 3% on Dec. 9, according to all 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Eleven of 17 analysts see a follow-up move to 3.25% in February, while six see no change.
该调查在新西兰储备银行本周意外维持官方现金利率不变后进行，当时投资者和几乎所有经济学家都预期，鉴于通胀恶化，将加息。行长安娜·布雷曼是四位倾向于维持不变的货币政策委员会成员之一，她此后表示，12月加息的可能性“很高”。互换数据显示，投资者预计12月加息的可能性约为75%。
The poll was taken after the RBNZ unexpectedly kept the OCR unchanged this week, when investors and almost all economists had anticipated a hike in response to worsening inflation. Governor Anna Breman, who was one of four Monetary Policy Committee members to favor a hold, has since said there is a “high” chance of a December hike. Investors see about a 75% chance of a December move, swaps data show.
货币政策委员会成员卡尔·汉森今天表示，他对12月加息“五五开”，并补充说，他正在等待数据表明对经济的限制不再存在，这是根据新西兰储备银行对《邮报》采访的摘要所述。
MPC member Carl Hansen today said he was “50-50” on a December hike, adding he is looking for data to signal restraints on the economy are no longer there, according to an RBNZ summary of an interview with the Post.
经济学家对新西兰储备银行2027年官方现金利率可能上调多少存在分歧。两位经济学家预计利率不会超过3%，七位预计利率将上升至3.25%，而八位预计到明年底基准利率将达到3.5%或更高。
Economists are split on how far the RBNZ may go with the OCR in 2027. Two expect there will be no increase beyond 3%, seven project the rate will rise to 3.25%, while eight expect the benchmark will be 3.5% or higher by the end of next year.