环球央行在十月大多按下暂停键，此前一个月经历了一轮加息，尽管决策者和分析师表示，顽固的通胀压力意味着紧缩周期未必已经结束。
Global central banks largely hit the pause button in October after a round of rate hikes the previous month, though policymakers and analysts signalled that stubborn inflation pressures meant the tightening cycle was not necessarily over.
加拿大央行是监管十种交易最活跃货币的央行中，十月唯一加息的央行，而美国联邦储备委员会、欧洲央行、新西兰和日本则维持利率不变。瑞士、澳大利亚、瑞典、挪威和英国的央行十月未召开利率决策会议。
Canada's central bank was the only one among those overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies to hike rates in October, while the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, New Zealand and Japan held steady. Central banks in Switzerland, Australia, Sweden, Norway and Britain held no rate-setting meetings.
G10央行今年通过14次加息累计紧缩350个基点，没有任何央行降息。
G10 central banks have delivered 350 basis points of tightening through 14 hikes this year, with none cutting rates.
“美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行均维持利率不变，”负责美国和日本覆盖的法国巴黎银行经济学家阿尼斯·本赛达尼表示，“然而，这次暂停并不意味着周期结束。”十月的平静紧随繁忙的九月，当时六家G10央行合计加息150个基点，是自2023年6月以来最大的月度紧缩力度。
"The Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ left their rates unchanged," said Anis Bensaidani, an economist who covers the United States and Japan at BNP Paribas. "This pause, however, does not mark the end of the cycle." The October lull followed a busy September, when six G10 central banks delivered a combined 150 basis points of hikes, the biggest monthly tightening push since June 2023.
此次暂停发生在油价上涨的背景下，布伦特原油期货在九月和十月均录得两位数百分比涨幅，引发通胀压力可能重燃的担忧。
The pause came against a backdrop of rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures posting double-digit percentage gains in both September and October, raising the prospect of renewed inflation pressures .
“政策偏紧，但可能还不够紧，”牛津经济研究院首席全球经济学家瑞安·斯威特表示，他指出央行暗示未来还将加息。
"Policy is tight, but probably not tight enough yet," said Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics, pointing to central banks hinting that more rate hikes were to come.
“未来紧缩的程度将主要取决于通胀走势，但仍有疑问：货币政策是否足够紧缩，以及需要多少额外紧缩才能将通胀重新拉回目标。”这种相对平静在新兴经济体中也同样明显。
"The degree of future tightening will mostly hinge on the path of inflation, but lingering questions are whether monetary policy is restrictive and how much additional tightening will be sufficient to return inflation to target." The relative lull was also visible across emerging economies.
路透社对18个发展中经济体的样本显示，十月有两家央行加息，分别是菲律宾和印度，合计加息75个基点。
Two central banks from a Reuters sample of 18 developing economies, the Philippines and India, hiked rates by a total of 75 bps in October.
另有10家召开会议的央行维持基准利率不变，土耳其时隔八个月后重启降息周期，降息100个基点。
Another 10 central banks that held meetings kept benchmark rates unchanged, while Turkey resumed its easing cycle after an eight-month break, cutting rates by 100 bps.
今年以来，新兴市场样本中的央行通过16次加息累计收紧675个基点，通过25次降息累计放松850个基点。
Year-to-date, central banks in the emerging market sample have delivered a combined 675 basis points of tightening through 16 hikes and 850 basis points of easing through 25 cuts.