The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate hike this week likely brought a close to the developed world’s most aggressive tightening campaign this year, economists and money managers said, as reports of tensions on the policy-setting board emerged.

Fifteen senior economists and a handful of money managers surveyed all anticipate the RBA will shift to the sidelines after raising the cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85%. A split decision and removal of an explicit tightening bias backed that view, which was reinforced by divisions on the RBA’s nine-member board over staff communications ahead of the Nov. 2-3 meeting.

The Australian Financial Review reported that some board members had criticized Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser over hawkish comments he made on Oct. 21 that sent rate-hike bets surging to 60% from around 20%. Those odds would later climb to about 85% after hot inflation data. The RBA declined to comment on the report.

The AFR said some board members were also shocked when Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter appeared on commercial television just over a week before the meeting to say the RBA had “not quite yet” done enough to contain inflation. The members felt like they could’ve been boxed into a hike, the report said. In the end, they split 6-3 to boost borrowing costs for a fifth time this year.

While Hauser is deputy chair of the monetary policy board, Hunter doesn’t sit on it. As the RBA’s chief economist, she is responsible for the economic forecasts released every three months in the Statement on Monetary Policy.

The survey result and board tensions underscore Governor Michele Bullock’s comment at Tuesday’s post-meeting press conference that it was now time to “take stock” as there is a lot of tightening still to flow through the economy.

Given it takes about 12-18 months for hikes to take hold, and the RBA has raised borrowing costs by 1.25 percentage points since February, there’s likely to be a drag on growth in the year ahead.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest lender, reckons the RBA is “on hold from here.”It anticipates a slowing economy as households hunker down while rising unemployment “should see inflation moderate,” according to Belinda Allen, head of Australia economics at CBA.

Meantime, traders scaled back RBA rate-rise bets after Brent oil futures plunged below $100 a barrel on Thursday as investors wagered that a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections could usher in a quicker end to the Iran conflict.

Money markets are pricing the highest odds for another RBA hike at 31% for February, while they see a 76% chance of a rate cut in November next year, up from 35% a day earlier. They’re not alone in such a view.

“From here, the trade-off facing the RBA becomes increasingly challenging,” said Adam Bowe of PIMCO Australia Ltd. “We think weakening domestic demand and increasingly restrictive financial conditions will ultimately allow the RBA to begin lowering the cash rate in the second half of 2027.”The reported board tensions also shed light on Governor Bullock’s sensitivity when questioned on any message being sent through a raft of RBA speeches and appearances between now and the Dec. 7-8 meeting, the final one of the year.

“Let me be really absolutely pinpoint clear on this point,” she said. “A lot of people interpreted our communication strategy as to go out and massage the market to where we want things to go. One thing I want to be absolutely clear about here, I don’t make the decisions. Andrew Hauser does not make the decisions. The board makes the decisions.”Hauser is scheduled to speak late this afternoon in Canberra and is likely to be asked about the board tensions.

The RBA was on the other end of such criticism last year when officials remained largely silent ahead of a July decision that was expected to see another cut and instead produced a hold. While Bullock maintained that officials couldn’t front-run the board’s decision, officials were criticized for not at least giving a sense of how the bank was interpreting the data.

Either way, the pressure on the bank’s leadership is high given their inability to return inflation to the 2-3% target after a protracted period above the top of the band, the backlash over high rates and now reports of board tensions. That’s before the energy shock from wars in eastern Europe and the Middle East and an unpredictable Trump administration.

“A lot could happen between now and February, but we see it as the next most likely timing for a hike, should one eventuate,” said Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis, a former RBA assistant governor. But “we stick with our existing base case that this is likely the peak of the cycle.”