人工智能可能成为市场近期痛苦的根源，因为投资者抛售与该技术相关的股票，转而涌入其他板块。iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）在过去一个月下跌逾23%，市场担忧AI相关企业为资本投资计划借入过多资金。英特尔和Cerebras Systems在此期间下跌近50%，是SOXX成分股中表现最差的。除AI外，市场表现尚可。道琼斯工业平均指数在过去一个月上涨4.1%，其对该技术的敞口远低于标普500指数或纳斯达克100指数。
Artificial intelligence could be the market's source of near-term pain, as investors dump stocks linked to the technology and instead move into other sectors. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has tumbled more than 23% over the past month on fears that AI-linked companies are borrowing too much money for their capital investment plans. Intel and Cerebras Systems are down nearly 50% in that time, the worst-performing SOXX members. Outside of AI, the market appears to be doing fine. The Dow Jones Industrial Average , which has far less exposure to the technology than the S & P 500 or Nasdaq-100 , is up 4.1% over the past month.
等权重标普500指数上涨逾5%。.DJI .NDX 1M mountain 道琼斯工业指数对比纳斯达克100指数 1个月走势图 通常，这种轮动对市场是利好。但由于资金高度集中在科技股——标普500科技板块占基准指数总市值的37%——这在指数层面反而构成利空。巴克莱策略师Venu Krishna写道：“对AI基础设施超级周期可持续性的担忧近期引发了科技股及其他与AI叙事相关股票的急剧抛售，促使资金轮动至AI敞口有限的领域。”这种轮动周四再次清晰显现。
The equal-weighted S & P 500 has climbed more than 5%. .DJI .NDX 1M mountain Dow Industrials vs Nasdaq-100 1-month chart Normally, a rotation like this would be positive for the market. But with so much money concentrated in tech — the S & P 500 tech sector makes up 37% of the benchmark's total market capitalization — it's detrimental at the index level. "Concerns about the sustainability of the AI infrastructure supercycle recently triggered a sharp sell-off in Tech and other stocks tied to the AI narrative, prompting a rotation into areas with limited AI exposure," wrote Barclays strategist Venu Krishna. That rotation is on clear display again Thursday.
道指期货跳涨300点，使这只30只成分股的平均指数有望延续周三高达1500点的巨大涨幅。与此同时，纳斯达克100指数期货下跌1%，neocloud概念股CoreWeave和Nebius下挫。高通股价也下跌12%，此前该芯片制造商发布的业绩指引逊于预期。加剧颓势的是，高盛交易员发出信号，民主党若在本周中期选举中夺得众参两院控制权，可能持续给科技股施压。“立法限制难以量化……但建设将变得更昂贵、更复杂、更缓慢。”
Dow futures popped 300 points, putting the 30-stock average on pace to build on its monster 1,500-point rally from Wednesday. Nasdaq-100 futures, meanwhile, dropped 1%, as neocloud stocks CoreWeave and Nebius fell. Qualcomm shares also dropped 12% after the chipmaker issued weaker-than-expected guidance . Adding to the malaise, Goldman Sachs traders signaled that Democrats sweeping control of the House and Senate in this week's midterm elections could keep pressure on tech. "Legislative restrictions are difficult to quantify ... but building will become more expensive, complicated and slower.
他们表示：“估值倍数已大幅压缩，仓位此前已经降低，随后又出现了一波激进的抛售。”BTIG首席市场技术分析师乔纳森·克林斯基指出，SOXX目前已连续四个交易日收于200日移动均线下方。他说：“显然有一些因素在发挥作用，我们将继续在多头和空头两侧寻找战术性机会，但归根结底，这种因子波动不太可能悄然消退……大盘风险并未消除。”
Multiples have compressed enormously, positioning was already derisked and another aggressive wave of selling followed," they said. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky pointed out that the SOXX has now closed below its 200-day moving average for four consecutive sessions. "There are clearly things working, and we will continue to look for tactical opportunities on both the long and short side, but ultimately this factor volatility is unlikely to go quietly into the night … broad market risk has not been eliminated," he said.