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巴拉圭乌埃诺银行倒闭引发圣地亚哥·培尼亚的政治地震Ueno Bank collapse in Paraguay triggers political earthquake for Santiago Peña

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巴拉圭中央银行行长卡洛斯·卡瓦略·卡马西Cmasi, Central Bank of Paraguay

11月3日星期二凌晨,突如其来的黑屏让近300万乌埃诺银行客户措手不及。凌晨3点24分左右,这家巴拉圭机构的应用程序停止显示用户账户,只显示一条信息:“我们无法显示余额”。该银行是管理数百万国家资金的体系中的关键参与者,在其成立三年间以惊人的速度增长。与此同时,巴拉圭中央银行在其社交媒体渠道上发表了一份强硬声明:该机构已被接管,并启动了清算程序。

A sudden blank screen took almost three million Ueno Bank customers by surprise in the early hours of Tuesday 3 November. At around 03:24, the app of the Paraguayan institution, a key player in the system which manages multimillion state funds and has grown at breakneck speed in its three years of existence, stopped displaying its users' accounts and showed a single message instead: "We cannot display the balance".At the same time, the Central Bank of Paraguay issued a tough statement on its social media channels: the institution was placed under intervention and its liquidation process was launched.

影响乌埃诺银行的这一“处置程序”的原因是更广泛的金融警报——此前发现其偿付能力比率出现严重暴跌,降至50%以下。影响立竿见影,并引发了圣地亚哥·培尼亚政府前所未有的政治地震。自周二以来,成群愤怒的用户聚集在亚松森的总部以及全国75家分行周围,试图取回自己的钱。分行外已关闭并由保安把守,现场景象已变成极度紧张和绝望的画面。

The reason for this "resolution procedure" affecting Ueno Bank was a broader financial alarm, after a critical collapse in its solvency ratio had been detected, bringing it below 50%.The impact was immediate and triggered a political earthquake without precedent for the government of Santiago Peña. Since Tuesday, crowds of outraged users have gathered around the headquarters in Asunción and the bank's 75 branches across the country in an attempt to save their money. The scenes outside the branches, which were closed and guarded by security staff, have turned into a picture of extreme tension and despair.

分行门前的痛苦转化为日常紧急状况,很快变得难以为继。一些人流着泪恳求取出资金,为一个重病的孩子买药;几公里外,一名建筑工人意识到,无法动用储蓄,他当天甚至无法给孩子买食物,同样感到绝望。“小围栏”的阴影该机构持有约8.5亿美元(约7.58亿欧元)的公共资金,其中包括支持劳动者养老金和医疗保险的社会保障研究所的资源。阿根廷式“小围栏”的阴影立即在民众中拉响了警报。“一辈子的储蓄,谁来负责?”

The anguish at the doors of the branches translated into everyday emergencies that soon became unsustainable. Some people, in tears, begged to withdraw their funds to pay for medicines for a seriously ill child; a few kilometres away, a construction worker felt the same desperation on realising that, without access to his savings, he would not even be able to buy food for his children that day. The spectre of a corralitoThe institution held around 850 million dollars (about 758 million euros) in public funds, including the resources of the Social Security Institute that support pensions and health coverage for workers. The spectre of an Argentine-style corralito immediately set off alarm bells among the population. "Who will answer for a lifetime of savings?

抗议者站在办公大楼外坚守阵地,手中的标语牌上写着:“会有免责吗?”全国屏息以待,注视着巴拉圭中央银行(BCP)的新闻发布会。官方确认措辞斩钉截铁:“我们已着手关闭该机构;从今天起,无论是应用程序、银行卡,还是任何服务,均已全部停止运行,”董事会成员莉安娜·卡瓦列罗(Liana Caballero)表示。

Will there be impunity?" read the placards held by protesters standing their ground outside the offices. The whole country held its breath during the press conference given by the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP). The official confirmation was categorical: "We proceeded to close the institution; neither the app, nor the cards, nor any service at all has been active since today", said board member Liana Caballero.

尽管当局试图通过提醒民众法律规定有担保基金、可向每位客户赔偿最高75个最低工资(约2.28亿瓜拉尼或3.77万美元、约3.362万欧元)来平息情绪,但不信任与猜疑已完全占据街头。针对佩尼亚的弹劾行动与司法施压政治反对派指责巴拉圭中央银行领导层因疏忽而成为欺诈的帮凶,但最终矛头直指国家元首。圣地亚哥·佩尼亚被推至风暴中心:应35名议员请求,众议院将于明天召开特别会议,就是否对其启动弹劾程序进行表决。

It made no difference that the authorities tried to calm tempers by reminding people that the law provides for a guarantee fund to reimburse each customer up to 75 minimum wages (about 228 million guaraníes or 37,700 dollars, some 33,620 euros); mistrust and suspicion had already taken full hold of the streets. Impeachment move against Peña and judicial pressureThe political opposition points to the leadership of the BCP as an accomplice to the fraud through omission, but the final shot is aimed squarely at the head of state. Santiago Peña has been thrust into the eye of the storm: at the request of 35 lawmakers, the Chamber of Deputies will meet tomorrow in an extraordinary session to vote on whether to open impeachment proceedings against him.

该程序能否推进,取决于能否在众议院获得53票支持,随后再获参议院三分之二多数通过。

The viability of the process will depend on securing 53 votes in the lower house and, subsequently, the support of two thirds of the Senate.

起诉书指控佩尼亚“履职不当”,并列出一系列严重罪名,涵盖利益冲突、涉嫌挪用养老基金,以及为中央银行提供体制庇护。风暴正酣之际,总统周三取消了所有公开行程,选择保持沉默,直至下午晚些时候才在网络上露面,宣布中央银行行长离职,并呼吁司法机关追究责任。司法收网行动于周三收紧,八名中央银行高管被捕,其中包括首席执行官米格尔·巴斯克斯(Miguel Vázquez)。

The indictment accuses Peña of "poor performance of his duties", backed by serious charges that range from conflicts of interest and the alleged misappropriation of pension funds to providing institutional protection to the Central Bank. In the middle of the storm, the president cancelled his entire official schedule on Wednesday and chose to remain silent until well into the afternoon, when he reappeared online to announce the departure of the head of the central bank and call on the courts to establish accountability. The judicial clamp tightened on Wednesday with the arrest of eight senior executives of the institution, including its chief executive, Miguel Vázquez.

与此同时,连锁反应很快波及实体经济:进口商和贸易商协会警告称,该国主要零售商的销售额立即暴跌了35%。由于资金被冻结且无法取用,国内消费一夜之间陷入停滞。足球、广告与不可避免的崩塌在一个仅有六百多万居民的国家里,Ueno Bank应用程序的影响力早已超越金融领域。这家由极具影响力的巴斯克斯集团(Grupo Vázquez)拥有、以独特的荧光绿设计著称的机构,以摆脱传统农业共和国繁重的官僚体制为傲。

At the same time, the knock-on effects soon hit the real economy: the Association of Importers and Traders warned of an immediate 35% plunge in sales at the country's major retailers. With money blocked and inaccessible, domestic consumption ground to a halt overnight. Football, advertising and an inevitable collapseIn a country of just over six million inhabitants, the Ueno Bank app went far beyond the financial sphere. Owned by the influential Grupo Vázquez and recognisable for its distinctive fluorescent green design, the institution prided itself on having buried the heavy bureaucracy of the traditional agrarian republic.

它的身影无处不在,既活跃于媒体,又赞助着该国最重要的足球俱乐部,如塞罗波特诺(Cerro Porteño)和奥林匹亚(Olimpia),以及标志性的查科防卫者体育场(Defensores del Chaco)。

Its presence was ubiquitous in the media and in the sponsorship of the country's most important football clubs, such as Cerro Porteño and Olimpia, as well as the emblematic Defensores del Chaco stadium.

就在几天前,该行还在吹嘘一项雄心勃勃的1亿美元资本化计划。然而,在广告门面和体育赞助的背后,银行监管局(Superintendence of Banks)在其账本中发现了残酷且不可持续的现实:该机构无法满足央行要求的7000万美元(6242.7万欧元)法定准备金要求。金融崩塌是数字使然;随后的爆发,纯属政治炸药。

Only a few days earlier, the bank had been boasting of an ambitious 100 million dollar capitalisation plan. However, behind the advertising facade and its patronage of sport, the Superintendence of Banks uncovered a harsh and unsustainable reality in its books: the institution was unable to meet a legal reserve requirement of 70 million dollars (62.427 million euros) demanded by the central bank. The financial collapse was a matter of numbers; the subsequent explosion, pure political dynamite.

作为一位具有技术官僚背景的经济学家和前国际货币基金组织官员,圣地亚哥·佩尼亚(Santiago Peña)于2023年上台执政,承诺将该国打造成吸引外资的磁石。尽管在他的领导下,巴拉圭记录了南美洲最强劲的经济增长率之一,但这场突如其来的银行业崩塌,让总统面临其执政以来最关键的时刻。

An economist with a technocratic profile and a former official of the International Monetary Fund, Santiago Peña came to power in 2023 on a promise to turn the country into a magnet for foreign capital. Although under his leadership Paraguay has recorded one of the strongest rates of economic growth in South America, the sudden banking collapse has left the president facing the most critical moment of his administration.

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