阿根廷主权比索债券周四下跌，此前一天交易量和价格激增，引发市场猜测政府正在干预，以在关键的国库拍卖前压低借贷成本。
Argentina’s sovereign peso bonds fell Thursday after a surge in trading and prices the day before raised speculation that the government was intervening to push down borrowing costs ahead of key Treasury auctions.
周三下午，本地债券需求激增，使2029年和2030年到期的债券价格上涨逾4%，扭转了当天早些时候的跌势。交易量攀升至3万亿比索以上，约为平时水平的三倍。债券周四恢复下跌，一度跌幅达1.5%，随后收窄跌幅。
A jump in demand for local bonds Wednesday afternoon led notes due in 2029 and 2030 to rally more than 4%, reversing declines earlier in the day. Trading volume climbed to more than 3 trillion pesos, roughly three times the usual level. The bonds resumed their decline Thursday, dropping as much as 1.5% before paring the losses again.
券商PPI、咨询公司1816以及本地券商Buenos Aires Valores的市场策略师马丁·德拉富恩特表示，交易的规模和集中度表明可能有官方买家参与。德拉富恩特估计，周三的买入总额约为2万亿比索（约13亿美元）。
Brokerage PPI, consultancy 1816 and market strategist Martín de la Fuente at local brokerage Buenos Aires Valores said the size and concentration of the trades suggested an official buyer may have been involved. De la Fuente estimated the purchases totaled around 2 trillion pesos ($1.3 billion) on Wednesday.
由于对明年总统大选和即将到来的主权债务到期的担忧削弱了投资者对阿根廷资产的胃口，长期比索债券在11月初几天大幅下跌。美元债券也大幅下挫，部分期限的交易价格跌至2025年10月以来的最低水平。
Longer-term peso bonds had fallen sharply in the first days of November as jitters about next year’s presidential elections and upcoming sovereign debt maturities dimmed appetite for the country’s assets. Dollar notes have also tumbled, with some maturities trading at the lowest since October 2025.
PPI在研报中表示，干预的目标将是在国库本年度最后几场债务拍卖前压低收益率，这些拍卖定于下周举行。根据PPI的数据，下一场拍卖面临约10.5万亿比索的到期债务，随后两场拍卖又将面临66万亿比索的到期债务。经济部和中央银行均拒绝就该猜测置评。
PPI said in a research note the goal of the intervention would be to lower yields ahead of the Treasury’s final debt auctions of the year, which are scheduled for next week. The next auction faces about 10.5 trillion pesos in maturities, followed by another 66 trillion pesos in the subsequent two auctions, according to PPI. The Economy Ministry and the central bank both declined to comment on the speculation.
去年，随着总统哈维尔·米莱遏制通胀并实施财政纪律，投资者大举涌入阿根廷资产——这一推动伴随着疲软的经济增长，可能损害他2027年连任的前景。
Investors had piled into Argentine assets last year as President Javier Milei tamed inflation and enforced fiscal discipline — a push that has brought along lackluster economic growth, potentially hurting prospects for his 2027 re-election bid.
近几周，围绕投票的担忧已对该国资产造成冲击。损失在上个月右翼盟友弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在巴西大选中落败后已加速扩大，本周美国选民在中期选举中否决唐纳德·特朗普的政策后，损失进一步延伸。
Concern around the vote has taken a toll on the nation’s assets in the past few weeks. Losses, which had already accelerated after right-wing ally Flávio Bolsonaro’s defeat in Brazil elections last month, extended after US voters’ rebuke of Donald Trump’s policies in midterms this week.
阿根廷美元债周四成为新兴市场表现最差的资产，部分债券每美元面值下跌2美分。
Argentine dollar bonds were the worst performers in emerging markets on Thursday, with some notes down 2 cents on the dollar.
德拉富恩特表示，美元债券收益率曲线受到市场对政府偿付明年债务能力担忧的冲击。该国2027年需偿付约250亿美元的硬通货债务。
De la Fuente said the dollar bond curve is being hit by concerns over the government’s ability to meet next year’s debt payments. The country is on the hook for roughly $25 billion in hard-currency debt payments in 2027.
“这看起来更像是试图发出信号，表明他们希望比索债券收益率在什么水平交易，”他在采访中表示。“较高的国际利率正在冲击阿根廷美元债，这种压力正传导至比索债收益率曲线。”
“It looked more like an attempt to send a signal about where they wanted peso bond yields to trade,” he said in an interview. “Higher international rates are hurting Argentina’s dollar bonds, and that pressure is feeding through to the peso curve.”