
大型科技股周四大幅下跌,创下去年“解放日”抛售以来的最大跌幅,延续了人工智能交易在今年秋季的惨痛表现。
Big tech stocks slumped on Thursday in their biggest decline since the “Liberation Day” rout last year, extending what has been a punishing autumn for the AI trade.
投资者担心民主党在中期选举中取得压倒性胜利可能会阻碍人工智能基础设施扩张,并迫使那些筹资能力已因高利率和更紧的金融条件而受限的小型公司面临混乱的清算,纳斯达克100指数的市值下跌预计将超过2万亿美元。
The Nasdaq 100 index was set for market value declines exceeding US$2 trillion on investor fears that the Democratic Party’s sweeping midterm victory could stall AI infrastructure expansion and force a chaotic reckoning for smaller firms whose capacity to raise funds has already been limited by higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions.
分析师和投资组合经理表示,半导体和人工智能基础设施等曾经火热领域的下跌并不完全出人意料,考虑到这些股票此前涨幅巨大,以及自美国夏末利率上升以来,一直困扰着所谓的新云公司(如Nebius和CoreWeave等较小的基础设施公司)的融资担忧。
Analysts and portfolio managers said declines in once-hot areas such as semiconductors and AI infrastructure were not entirely surprising, given the scale of earlier gains in many of these stocks and the financing concerns that have shadowed the so-called neoclouds, smaller infrastructure firms such as Nebius and CoreWeave, since US interest rates rose late in the summer.
半导体和新云公司股票跌幅最为显著,反映出人们担心价值数十亿美元的数据中心建设可能面临延误。费城半导体指数一度下跌11.2%,触及六个多月以来的最低水平。英伟达下跌9%,超微电脑下跌15%。
Shares of semiconductor and neocloud companies posted the most significant declines, reflecting worries that data centre buildouts worth billions of dollars could face delays. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index fell as much as 11.2 per cent to touch its lowest level in more than six months. Nvidia dropped 9 per cent and Advanced Micro slumped 15 per cent.
许多分析师表示,跌幅之大,且已连续第二天下跌,表明市场情绪正在转变,这可能预示着进一步抛售,很可能从周五亚洲市场交易时段开始。
Many analysts said the scale of the declines, which have now extended into a second straight day, suggests sentiment is changing, which could portend further selling, probably starting with Friday’s market sessions in Asia.
日本日经指数和韩国综合指数今年均大幅上涨,涨幅均超过20%,但周三华尔街抛售后两者均大幅下跌,周五可能会出现同样的情况。
Japan’s Nikkei and Korea’s Kospi have risen strongly this year, both up more than 20 per cent, but they declined significantly following Wednesday’s Wall Street rout and might be expected to do the same on Friday.
“尽管今日波动幅度巨大,但波动率尚未达到历史上与投降点相关的投降或逆向极端,”北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市LPL Financial首席多资产策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特表示。
“Despite the magnitude of today’s move, volatility has not yet reached the capitulation or contrarian extremes historically associated with capitulation points,” said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist for LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.
尽管周三整体科技股抛售,超大规模云服务商曾一度抗跌,但最终也下跌。亚马逊公司下跌2.5%,Alphabet下跌2%。
Hyperscalers, which defied Wednesday’s broad tech sell-off, also dropped. Amazon.com fell 2.5 per cent and Alphabet slid 2 per cent.
抛售迹象表明,投资者开始考虑数据中心建设不受欢迎的问题,一些怀疑论者称,这种建设对美国社区造成的成本尚未得到充分考虑。
The selling suggests investors are starting to account for the unpopularity of the data centre buildout, with some sceptics saying the costs it has imposed on US communities have yet to be fully considered.
“关于这些数据中心地理位置选在某人家门口、给电网带来压力、给供水系统带来压力,将会有大量反对声音,”马萨诸塞州普利茅斯Granite Wealth Management公司董事总经理布鲁斯·扎罗说。
“There’s going to be a lot of pushback about those data centres being geographically located in someone’s backyard, straining the power grid, straining the water systems,” said Bruce Zaro, managing director at Granite Wealth Management in Plymouth, Massachusetts.
“虽然已有不少数据中心获批,但仍有大量项目等待许可。未来要获得这些许可将面临艰难道路。”瑞银分析师估计,预计2028年美国约30%的数据中心新增产能可能面临潜在建设暂停的风险,凸显了对一个依赖快速建设新设施的行业的威胁。
“Although there are a number of data centres already approved, there are still a lot to be permitted. There’s going to be a difficult road to get those permitted forthcoming.”Around 30 per cent of expected US data centre capacity additions in 2028 could be at risk from potential construction pauses, UBS analysts estimated, highlighting the threat to an industry whose growth depends on a rapid buildout of new facilities.
政治动荡正打击一个本已岌岌可危的AI交易,原因是人们担心投入这项技术的巨额资金能否获得投资回报。
The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worries about the return on investment for the enormous sums being poured into the technology.
CoreWeave已成为投资者对大规模AI支出焦虑的晴雨表,该公司及许多同类公司都需要定期进入市场融资,其股价下跌10%。
CoreWeave, which has become a barometer of investor anxiety over heavy AI spending and the need shared by many of these companies to regularly access market financing, slumped 10 per cent.
根据S&P Global Market Intelligence的数据,其五年期信用违约互换点差——衡量市场对潜在违约预期的指标——扩大至历史高位。
Its five-year credit default spreads, which measure market expectations of a potential default, widened to a record high, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
另一家新云公司Nebius下跌15%。两家公司的股价自纳斯达克综合指数10月6日创下历史新高以来,均已腰斩或跌幅更大。
Nebius, another neocloud company, dropped 15 per cent. Shares of both firms have dropped by half or more since the Nasdaq Composite hit a record on October 6.
这些急剧下跌使纳斯达克综合指数有望进入调整区间,即从最近高点下跌10%。纳斯达克100指数最新下跌5.9%。
The sharp declines put the Nasdaq Composite on track to enter correction territory, defined as a 10 per cent drop from its recent peak. The Nasdaq 100 was last down 5.9 per cent.
“市场正从对人工智能的期待转向对人工智能的定价,”Incline Investment Management 创始人兼首席执行官 Ted Parkhill 说。
“The market’s moving from the promise of AI to the price of AI,” said Ted Parkhill, founder and CEO of Incline Investment Management.
“毫无疑问,人工智能从长远来看将对世界产生变革性影响。但这并不意味着每只与人工智能相关的股票目前的定价都是恰当的。市场将出现大量动荡。” 数据中心运营商 Applied Digital、Cipher Digital 和 IREN 股价均下跌超过 14%。
“There’s no question that AI is going to be transformative for the world in the long run. But that doesn’t mean every AI-related stock is currently priced appropriately. There’s going to be a lot of turmoil.”Data centre operators Applied Digital, Cipher Digital and IREN tumbled more than 14 per cent each.
这种疲软蔓延至公用事业和受建设需求影响的设备供应商。GE Vernova 下跌约 6%,而 Constellation Energy 下跌 3%。
The weakness extended to utilities and equipment suppliers exposed to the buildout. GE Vernova fell about 6 per cent, while Constellation Energy slipped 3 per cent.
微软下跌 2%。彭博新闻报道,该公司正加强对 Nebius、IREN 和 Nscale 部分数据中心项目的监管。
Microsoft declined 2 per cent. The company is tightening oversight of some data centre projects from Nebius, IREN and Nscale, Bloomberg News reported.