
中期选举将一批人工智能怀疑论者推上权力舞台两天后,新现实重重撞击华尔街。
Two days after the midterm elections swept a bloc of artificial-intelligence skeptics into power, the new reality slammed into Wall Street.
周四的股市暴跌几乎波及科技板块的每一个角落。亚洲芯片制造商、得克萨斯州电力生产商、新泽西州算力提供商、硅谷软件开发商、承包商和数据中心开发商纷纷下挫,往往同步走低,抛售潮随着交易日推移呈现自我强化态势。
Thursday’s stock-market wipeout left few corners of the tech sector unscathed. Asian chip makers, Texas power producers, New Jersey compute providers, Silicon Valley software makers, contractors and data-center developers all tumbled, often in unison, in a selloff that appeared to feed on itself as the day wore on.
进行高杠杆押注的交易员遭重创,但此前怀疑AI股票近期回调会进一步加剧的人也未能幸免。从开盘钟声响起,跌势便已加剧。
Traders making highly leveraged bets got crushed, but so did those who doubted a recent pullback in AI stocks would get worse. It did, from the opening bell.
“感觉像是地毯被抽走了,”Meridian Equity Partners高级管理合伙人Jonathan Corpina说。“面对眼前诸多不确定性,市场依然极其脆弱。”到周四下午,“科技七巨头”合计市值已蒸发约1万亿美元。费城半导体指数录得疫情深处以来最惨单日表现。纳斯达克综合指数跌入回调区间,总市值估计缩水2.5万亿美元。而AI热潮的标志性个股英伟达收盘下跌——2026年以来首次收阴。
“It seems like the rug is getting pulled out from under it,” said Jonathan Corpina, senior managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners. “The market continues to be extremely fragile with all this uncertainty in front of us.”By Thursday afternoon, some $1 trillion of the Magnificent Seven group of tech giants’ collective market value had vanished. The PHLX Semiconductor index posted its worst day since the depths of the pandemic. The Nasdaq composite stumbled into correction territory, shedding an estimated $2.5 trillion in total market value. And the poster child of the AI boom, Nvidia, closed the session in the red—for 2026.
就在几周前,AI股票还在推动大盘屡创新高,投资者满怀期待地关注Anthropic和OpenAI计划中的首次公开募股(IPO)。随后,压力开始积聚。
It was only a few weeks ago when AI stocks were still propelling the markets to record highs, with investors looking expectantly toward the planned initial public offerings of Anthropic and OpenAI. Then, the pressure started to build.
首先,AI交易中风险较高的角落出现裂痕,部分公司堆积巨额债务以扩张规模。亚马逊和Alphabet令人失望的财报在交易席位间引发震动。
First, cracks began to show in risky corners of the AI trade where companies amassed huge piles of debt to grow. Underwhelming earnings reports by Amazon and Alphabet sent tremors across trading desks.
如今,华盛顿的权力易手,加上多位承诺限制数据中心的州长当选,暴露了股市的脆弱性。多年的牛市让主要美股基准指数变得头重脚轻、过度依赖科技板块。
Now, the power shift in Washington, as well as the election of several governors who have promised data-center restrictions, exposed the stock market’s fragility. The yearslong bull market left the major U.S. benchmark indexes top-heavy and tech-dependent.
周四的抛售范围扩大,拖累标普500指数的每个板块均收跌,这与近期交易日形成鲜明对比,当时AI股票的疲软引发了大规模资金轮动,流向市场的其他领域。纳斯达克综合指数的暴跌创下了自特朗普总统去年宣布关税政策导致市场剧烈动荡以来的最糟糕单日表现。
Thursday’s selloff broadened to drag every sector of the S&P 500 into the red, a departure from recent sessions when weakness in AI stocks spurred a large rotation into other areas of the market. The Nasdaq composite’s tumble marked its worst day since President Trump’s tariff announcements last year sent markets haywire.
“当科技股领涨时,很容易让人跟进,”Corpina表示。“当科技股遭重创时,无疑会让投资者感到更加不安。”周三,建筑业放缓的前景重创了芯片制造商、承包商及其他基础设施公司。但最大超大规模数据中心运营商——其庞大的支出计划可能因回撤而缩减——的股价上涨帮助推高了指数,道琼斯工业平均指数录得近19个月来最大单日涨幅。
“When tech is leading the way, it’s very easy to get on board,” Corpina said. “When tech gets hit, it certainly makes investors a lot more uneasy.”On Wednesday, the prospect of a slowdown in construction battered chip makers, contractors and other infrastructure firms. But gains in the shares of the biggest hyperscalers—whose massive spending plans could shrink with a pullback—helped push indexes higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its biggest gain in almost 19 months.
最大AI玩家与其供应商之间的这种分化在周四延续。尽管微软、亚马逊和Alphabet股价下跌,但它们基本避开了贯穿AI供应链的大部分痛苦。
That bifurcation between the biggest AI players and their suppliers continued on Thursday. While Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet traded in the red, they sidestepped most of the pain coursing through the AI supply chain.
不过,超大规模运营商中有一个例外:SpaceX,该公司正与特斯拉合作在得克萨斯州建设大规模的Terafab芯片工厂,以助力埃隆·马斯克宏大的雄心。两家公司股价均下跌逾9%,表明交易员对马斯克旗下公司尤为担忧,鉴于这位科技巨头与特朗普政府关系密切。
There was one exception among the hyperscalers, though: SpaceX, which is teaming up with Tesla to build its massive Terafab chip factory in Texas to help support Elon Musk’s stratospheric ambitions. Shares in both firms fell by more than 9%, suggesting traders were particularly worried about Musk-owned companies given the tech titan’s close ties to the Trump administration.
投资者寄希望于AI推动的涨势能延续至2027年,前提是拥有此类产能的公司能继续赚取惊人的巨额利润。AI交易核心的“卖铲人”角色——如美光和英伟达等公司——推动了那令人瞠目结舌的利润飙升。
Investors had rested their hopes that the AI-fueled rally would extend into 2027 on the premise that firms with such capacity could continue printing blockbuster profits. The “picks and shovels” plays at the heart of the AI trade—companies like Micron and Nvidia—powered much of that eye-popping profit jump.
政治背景的转变至关重要,因为AI基础设施名称,尤其是半导体和存储芯片,是标普500指数盈利增长的关键驱动力。琼斯交易公司首席市场策略师Mike O'Rourke表示:“由于预期的政策转变,明年盈利预测已不再可信。”尽管很少有人预计数据中心项目会停滞不前,但任何未来的延迟都可能对美国经济的关键部分产生重大影响。
A change in the political backdrop “matters because AI infrastructure names, especially semiconductors and memory, are the key drivers of S&P 500 earnings growth,” said Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. “Due to the expected policy shift, the earnings forecasts for next year can no longer be trusted.”While few expect new data center projects to grind to a halt, any future delays could have big consequences for a crucial part of the U.S. economy.
“如果你投资的项目距离产生收入还有六到十二个月的时间,但实际上你已经有两到三年才能产生收入,那你就面临一系列问题,”对冲基金巨头Man Group的高级投资组合经理Matt Rowe表示。
“If you’re investing in a project and you think you’re six to 12 months away from generating revenue, but you’re really two to three years away, you’ve got a number of problems,” said Matt Rowe, a senior portfolio manager at hedge-fund giant Man Group.
在得克萨斯州,该州计划建设的数据中心项目数量居全美之首。华尔街此前预期,共和党州长Greg Abbott最近宣布的数据中心暂停令在很大程度上只是选举前做做样子,将会被撤销。
In Texas, which has more planned data-center projects than any other state, Wall Street expected that Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s recently announced data-center moratorium was largely for show ahead of the election and would be reversed. Now, investors and analysts are rushing to assess what a longer pause on new projects could look like.
如今,投资者和分析人士正急于评估更长的项目暂停期可能是什么样子。民主党当选州长Gina Hinojosa呼吁新批准应继续暂停,直到得克萨斯州立法机构能在明年开会通过“真正的保护措施”。
Democratic Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa has called for new approvals to remain on pause until the Texas Legislature can meet next year to pass “real protections.”“I don’t think anybody in July or August thought that it would get this dicey,” said Mark Melchiorre, chief investment officer of credit-focused hedge fund Forza Investment Group.
“我不认为七月或八月任何人会认为事情会变得如此复杂,”专注于信贷的对冲基金Forza Investment Group首席投资官Mark Melchiorre表示。“一些项目将会停滞。”投资者表示,华尔街对选举的延迟反应部分源于油价周三大幅下跌——特朗普和副总统JD Vance承认与伊朗的战争削弱了共和党的政治运势,导致油价短暂下跌,令投资者寄望于通胀侵蚀美国人的工资收入问题将有所缓解。
“Some projects will stall.”Investors said Wall Street’s delayed reaction to the election stems in part from a steep decline in oil prices Wednesday after Trump and Vice President JD Vance acknowledged the war with Iran had dimmed Republicans’ political fortunes. That momentarily buoyed investors’ hopes that inflation eating into Americans’ paychecks would ease.
但周四原油价格的部分反弹为抛售打开了更大的门。据Vanda Analytics的数据,当天下午晚些时候,个人投资者的净股票卖出量有望创下自新冠疫情以来的单日最高纪录。FedWatch Advisors创始人兼首席投资官本·埃蒙斯表示,机械性抛售放大了跌幅。
But a partial rebound in crude costs Thursday opened the door wider for a selloff. Late in the afternoon, individual investors were on pace for their biggest day of net stock sales since Covid, according to Vanda Analytics. Mechanical selling amplified the losses, said Ben Emons, founder and chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors.
埃蒙斯说,在当天交易时段早些时候,急于平仓的期权交易员助推了股指的急剧下跌。随着跌幅扩大,系统性对冲基金纷纷涌入,进一步加剧了下行动能。
Early in the session, Emons said, options traders scrambling to cover their positions helped spark indexes’ sharp declines. As losses mounted, systematic hedge funds piled in and juiced the downward momentum.
用借来的资金押注上涨的交易平仓,加剧了压力。今年早些时候,在AI驱动的上涨行情中,涌入三倍杠杆交易所交易基金或与芯片挂钩指数的交易员享受到了放大的收益。但当价格下跌时,这种动态就会逆转。Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF旨在实现纽约证券交易所半导体指数每日表现的三倍,该ETF周四暴跌39%。
The unwind of bullish bets using borrowed money compounded the pressure. Traders who piled into triple-leveraged exchange-traded funds or indexes linked to chips enjoyed magnified gains during the AI-driven rally earlier this year. But the dynamics reverse when prices fall. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF, which seeks 300% of the daily performance of the NYSE Semiconductor Index, plummeted 39% Thursday.
“当这种动量开始对投资者不利时,尤其是涉及杠杆时,就可能导致看似极端的抛售,”加拿大皇家银行蓝湾资产管理公司市场策略主管迈克·贝尔说。“有时市场下跌是因为人们在卖出,有时人们卖出是因为市场在下跌。”
“When that momentum starts to go against investors, particularly when there’s leverage involved, it can lead to what might seem like extreme selloffs,” said Mike Bell, head of market strategy at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “Sometimes markets go down because people sell, and sometimes people sell because markets are going down.”