CNBC主持人吉姆·克雷默周四表示，对数据中心建设前景的不确定性使得人工智能股票的估值变得日益困难，导致过去两个交易日出现大幅抛售。
CNBC's Jim Cramer said Thursday that uncertainty over the future of a data center build-out has made artificial intelligence stocks increasingly difficult to value, leading to the steep selling over the past two sessions.
抛售波及整个人工智能板块，从芯片制造商到为数据中心供应电力和电气设备的公司无一幸免。iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）周三下跌3%，周四再跌10%，而GE Vernova和Sandisk周四分别下跌7%和22%。投资者担心监管障碍和对新建数据中心的反对声浪可能会拖慢建设进度，从而动摇支撑芯片制造商估值的增长预期。
The sell-off swept across the AI trade, hitting everything from chipmakers to companies supplying power and electrical equipment for data centers. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 3% Wednesday and another 10% Thursday, while GE Vernova and Sandisk dropped 7% and 22%, respectively, on Thursday. Investors are concerned that regulatory hurdles and opposition to new data centers could slow the build-out, undermining the growth forecasts supporting chipmakers' valuations.
“我们不知道该为任何与数据中心相关的股票支付什么价格，这就是为什么这一时刻如此令人焦虑，”《疯狂理财》节目主持人说道。
"We don't know what to pay for any of the stocks connected to the data center and that's why this moment is so fraught," the "Mad Money" host said.
克雷默以英伟达为典型例子。这家AI芯片制造商的市盈率约为明年预期盈利的12倍，预期增长率达70%，看起来极其便宜。但这些盈利预测假设需求在未来几年将保持强劲。
Cramer pointed to Nvidia as a prime example. The AI chipmaker trades at roughly 12 times next year's earnings with an expected growth rate of 70%, making it appear remarkably cheap. But those earnings projections assume demand will remain strong for years to come.
“这是一个难以置信的便宜货，”他说。“但如果第二年无法再增长，因为美国不会像现在这样快地批准新建数据中心，那它就不是便宜货了。”存储芯片制造商美光也面临风险。该公司的长期“收购或付款”合同即使在客户不提货的情况下也提供了一定的营收可视性。然而，克雷默表示，如果签约方陷入特别困难的财务状况、没有钱支付，他不确定这些合同会有多坚挺。
"That's an incredible bargain," he said. "But it is not a bargain if, the following year, it can't grow any further, because the U.S. won't permit new data centers as fast as they do now." Memory maker Micron also faces risk. The company's long-term take-or-pay contracts provide some revenue visibility even if customers don't take delivery of their chips. However, Cramer said he's unsure how sturdy those contracts would be if any signees fell on especially hard times and didn't have the money to pay.
超威半导体（AMD）则呈现出另一个估值难题。克雷默盛赞其最新财报是“我见过的最好的财报季之一”，并强调了CEO苏姿丰的预测，即更广泛的数据中心市场最终可能达到1万亿美元。
Advanced Micro Devices presents another valuation dilemma. Cramer praised its latest earnings as "one of the best quarters I have ever seen" and highlighted CEO Lisa Su's projection that the broader data center market could eventually reach $1 trillion. "If that's the case then you can buy her [CEO Lisa Su's] stock right now," Cramer said.
“如果真是这样，那你现在就可以买入她[CEO苏姿丰]的股票，”克拉默说。“你想买吗？该股3月份在188美元。按这个标准，404美元在我看来高得离谱。也许这才是真正的问题。”归根结底，克拉默表示，问题在于监管障碍是会大幅拖慢数据中心建设，还是仅仅会推迟建设。在前景变得更清晰之前，即使是卓越的盈利前景，可能也不足以支撑AI股票的估值。
"Do you want to? The stock was at $188 in March. By that token, $404 seems awfully high to me. Maybe that's the real problem." Ultimately, Cramer said the question is whether regulatory hurdles will significantly slow data center construction or merely delay it. Until the outlook becomes clearer, even exceptional earnings outlook may not be enough to justify AI stocks' valuations. Cramer's Charitable Trust, the portfolio run by CNBC's Investing Club, owns shares of NVDA and MU. Sign up now for the CNBC Investing Club to follow Jim Cramer's every move in the market. Questions for Cramer?
克拉默慈善信托基金——由CNBC投资俱乐部管理的投资组合——持有NVDA和MU的股份。
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