强制放缓或许正是一些人工智能公司目前所需要的。随着民主党不仅拿下美国众议院和参议院，还赢得了得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和佐治亚州等州的州长职位，投资者现在正在考虑数据中心建设可能面临更多障碍。
A forced slowdown might be exactly what some AI companies need right now. With Democrats taking not just the U.S. House and Senate, but also the governorships of states such as Texas, Ohio and Georgia, investors are now contemplating more roadblocks emerging for the construction of data centers.
这可能会限制人工智能公司继续以惊人的速度增长的能力。Anthropic在其首次公开募股招股说明书中，将无法持续获得更多算力列为主要风险因素之一。
That could constrain AI companies from being able to keep growing at a breakneck pace. Anthropic, in its initial public offering prospectus, listed the inability to keep securing more computing power as one of its major risk factors.
但市场近期的主要担忧并非人工智能的增长潜力，而是担心为满足这种增长而建设的能力成本过高，以至于即使在人工智能竞赛中获胜的公司，最终的盈利能力也将远低于预期。人工智能信贷成本上升是导致人工智能股票近几周下跌的重要因素。
But the market’s major concern of late hasn’t been AI’s growth potential. It has been the fear that building the capacity to meet that growth would be so costly that even the companies that won the AI race would end up much less profitable than envisioned. Rising AI credit costs were a big factor leading AI stocks to sink in recent weeks.
因此，从这个角度看，如果民主党执政真的会推动全国范围内的人工智能算力建设放缓，这实际上可能有利于人工智能领域的许多参与者，尤其是最大的“超大规模”科技公司。
So in that way, if Democrats’ sweep into power is really going to spur a national slowdown in the AI computing power build-out, it could actually play into the hands of many players in AI, and maybe especially to the biggest “hyperscale” tech companies.
即使数据中心开发的边缘部分出现放缓，也能降低对供应、劳动力和信贷的成本压力。而且，这将让任何拥有现有数据中心的人更有信心，其资产的稀缺性将在未来使其更具价值。
A slowdown even at the fringes of data center development can ratchet down cost pressures on supplies, labor and credit. And it would give anyone with an existing data center more confidence that the scarcity of their asset will make it more valuable down the road.
“如果你是一家已经在运营的数据中心，或者已经有电力供应，那么就有稀缺价值，”巴克莱银行科技、媒体和电信信贷分析师兼高收益研究主管安德鲁·凯奇斯说。“如果建设放缓，那么资本支出可能会降低，这对信贷也是有利的。”这种动态有助于解释自选举以来市场的表现。已经控制大量算力并有财力竞标更多算力的科技巨头亚马逊和微软，周三股价上涨了6%以上。
“If you’re a data center that is already running, or have power in place, there’s scarcity value,” says Andrew Keches, who is tech, media and telecom credit analyst and head of high-yield research at Barclays. “And if construction slows, then maybe capital expenditures are lower, and that’s also good for credit.”This dynamic helps explain what has played out in the markets since the election. Tech giants Amazon and Microsoft, which already control vast computing power and have the financial might to outbid for more, rallied more than 6% on Wednesday.
与此同时，信用状况不佳、现金资源较少的计算和数据中心公司股价下跌。追踪许多已转向人工智能领域的加密公司股票的CoinShares比特币挖矿与数字动力ETF，周三下跌了约9%。
Meanwhile, shares of computing and data center companies with less sterling credit and fewer cash resources were down. The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF, which tracks shares of many crypto companies that have pivoted to AI, was down about 9% on Wednesday.
出售芯片或其他人工智能竞赛组件的公司股价也下跌了，因为它们容易受到订单放缓的影响。费城半导体指数下跌了3%。
So were shares of companies selling chips or other components in the AI race because they are vulnerable to a slowdown in orders. The PHLX Semiconductor index was down 3%.
债券市场也显示，人工智能计算领域正在经历一场洗牌，而非全面崩盘。根据MarketAxess的数据，许多为数据中心建设融资的债券出现了反弹，这些数据中心不仅面向微软和亚马逊等租户，也面向新兴计算服务提供商CoreWeave。这些债券的收益率与基准国债的利差收窄了。
Bonds, too, were showing a shakeout, rather than a wipeout, for AI computing. There were rallies for many bonds financing the construction of data centers not just for tenants such as Microsoft and Amazon, but also upstart computing provider CoreWeave, according to MarketAxess data. These bonds saw tighter yield spreads over benchmark Treasurys.
不过，也有一些例外，包括德克萨斯州项目的债券，无论租户是谁。该州政治潮流的转变可能让投资者对这些项目能否最终落地，或其成本感到担忧。
Some exceptions, however, included bonds funding projects in Texas, regardless of tenant. The political tide shift in that state might be making investors nervous about those projects crossing the finish line, or the cost of getting there.
另一个有趣的指标是：虽然周三英伟达和博通的股价下跌，这可能表明芯片需求减少，但根据MarketAxess的数据，它们的债券却在反弹。
Another interesting indicator: While shares of Nvidia and Broadcom were falling on Wednesday, a sign that there may be less demand for chips, their bonds were rallying, according to MarketAxess data.
这表明，虽然投资者可能正在将某种新的人工智能项目放缓计入价格，但市场也可能认为这些公司为他人提供的融资担保正变得风险更小。
This suggests that while investors might be pricing in some kind of slowdown in new AI projects, the market may also view the financing guarantees those companies have offered to others as becoming less risky.
鉴于许多人工智能股票和债券近期大幅抛售，随着民主党的计划逐渐成形，可能还有更多回升空间。
Given how sharply many AI stocks and bonds have sold off lately, there could be room for more relief as Democrats’ plans come into shape.
例如，即使某个州实施或延长建设暂停令，该暂停令是否适用于已开工或后期项目，也将是一个关键变量。一些债券还具有保护债券持有人的特征，即使以租户为代价，例如无论建设进度如何，租金支付将在特定日期开始。
Even if a state were to implement or extend a moratorium on construction, for example, whether it would apply to already started or late-stage projects would be a crucial variable. Some bonds also have features that protect them at the expense of the tenant, such as rent payments that kick in at a certain date regardless of construction status.
如果新项目交给那些最愿意做出妥协的公司，例如放弃税收优惠或进行本地投资，那么这同样可能将格局倾向于规模最大或经验最丰富的开发商。即使速度放缓，人工智能建设仍将是一场激烈的竞赛。
And if new projects go to the firms most willing to make compromises, such as forgoing tax incentives, or making local investments, that again may just tilt the landscape toward the biggest or most-experienced developers. The AI build-out will still be a fierce race, even if it is run at slower speeds.