增长前景的不确定性以及明年通胀将保持高位的预期正在拖累全球市场，尽管对伊朗战争局势缓和的希望已缓解了油价。
Uncertainty over the growth outlook and expectations that inflation will remain elevated next year are weighing on global markets, even as hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war have eased oil prices.
政府借贷成本今年大幅上升，对人工智能热潮的信心正在动摇，欧洲经济数据也有所走弱。
Government borrowing costs have risen sharply this year, confidence in the AI boom is faltering and European economic data has softened.
这种组合正在加剧担忧，即增长放缓的同时通胀可能仍居高位，尽管美国中期选举中民主党获胜，提升了人们对伊朗战争最终结束的希望。本周油价下跌近20%，跌至每桶100美元以下。
The combination is fuelling concern that inflation could stay high even as growth slows, although the Democratic victory in US midterm elections has raised hopes for an eventual end to the Iran war. Oil has fallen almost 20% this week to below $100 a barrel .
但分析人士警告，伊朗战争的任何解决方案仍不确定，油价仍有再次上涨的空间。
But analysts warn that any resolution to the Iran war remains uncertain, leaving scope for prices to rise again.
油价今年仍上涨近60%，而天然气价格仍接近2026年初水平的三倍。
Oil is still up almost 60% this year, while natural gas remains nearly three times its level at the start of 2026 .
这一背景使得短期通胀预期保持高位，并加强了担忧，即随着增长放缓，价格压力可能持续，迫使央行进一步加息。
That backdrop is keeping near-term inflation expectations elevated and reinforcing concerns that price pressures could persist as growth slows, forcing central banks to raise interest rates further.
密歇根大学的一项衡量指标显示，美国一年期通胀预期从9月的4.6%和2月的3.4%微升至10月的4.7%。
The University of Michigan's measure of one-year US inflation expectations edged up to 4.7% in October from 4.6% in September and 3.4% in February.
欧元区和美国的长期通胀预期市场衡量指标仍高于2%，英国则高于3%。
Market measures of long-term inflation expectations remain above 2% in the euro zone and the US , , and above 3% in Britain .
更高的能源成本不仅推高通胀，还通过增加运输、制造和家庭开支拖累增长。
Higher energy costs add to inflation while also weighing on growth by increasing transport, manufacturing and household expenses.
联博（AllianceBernstein）首席投资策略师因戈·弗雷泽·詹金斯表示，推动通胀压力的地缘政治紧张局势和供应中断将超越美国中期选举而持续存在。
AllianceBernstein chief investment strategist Inigo Fraser Jenkins said the geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions driving inflationary pressures would persist beyond the US midterms.
“今天是石油，但下次可能是钴、锂或其他什么，我们需要习惯这一点，”他说。“它将以更高的通胀和更大的波动性形式表现出来。”受极端天气、航运中断和高昂能源成本推高的食品价格，仍然是一个关键的通胀担忧。联合国粮食及农业组织的食品价格指数处于近四年来的最高水平。
"Today it's oil, but next time it could be cobalt, lithium or something else, and we need to get used to that," he said. "It will manifest itself in the form of higher inflation and greater volatility." Food prices, driven higher by extreme weather, shipping disruptions and elevated energy costs, remain a key inflation concern. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index is at its highest level in nearly four years.
成本可能进一步上升，大型消费品和食品公司警告将提价以抵消成本上涨，而英国主要零售行业组织也提出了类似担忧。
Costs could rise further, with major consumer goods and food companies warning of price increases to offset higher expenses, while Britain's leading retail trade body has flagged similar concerns.
三井住友银行的全球市场策略师汉克·卡伦蒂表示，食品通胀还可能加剧更广泛的经济压力。
Food inflation can also fuel broader economic pressures, said Hank Calenti, global markets strategist at SMBC.
他说：“食品通胀让人们开始认为‘这里确实存在通胀，而且会持续居高不下，我需要找一份更好的工作，或者我的雇主需要给我加薪’。于是，这些第二轮效应就出现了。”分析师表示，金融环境收紧是增长前景需要谨慎的另一个原因。
"Food inflation makes people start to think that 'there's really inflation here and it's going to stay high and I need to get a better job or my employer needs to pay me more'," he said. "So, those second-round effects come in." Analysts say tighter financial conditions are another reason for caution on the growth outlook.
美国政府借贷成本在第三季度飙升85个基点，而法国和意大利的借贷成本跃升超过100个基点。尽管此后收益率有所回落，但今年仍大幅走高。
US government borrowing costs surged 85 basis points in the third quarter, while those in France and Italy jumped more than 100 bps , , . Although yields have eased since then, they remain sharply higher this year.
对避险德国债券的需求应有助于遏制整个欧元区的借贷成本。但法国和德国债券利差扩大，可能在欧洲央行政策不变的情况下收紧融资环境。
Demand for safe-haven German bonds should help contain borrowing costs across the euro zone. But a widening spread between French and German debt could tighten financing conditions without any change in European Central Bank policy.
欧洲央行上周四政策会议前流传的估算显示，与9月份的预测相比，近期债券收益率上升将在2027至2028年累计使经济增长减少100个基点。
ECB estimates circulated before last Thursday's policy meeting showed the latest rise in bond yields would reduce economic growth by a cumulative 100 bps in 2027-28 compared with September projections.
金融环境收紧的另一个迹象是风险资产遭到抛售，尤其是人工智能相关股票。
Another sign of tighter financial conditions has been a selloff in risk assets, particularly AI-related stocks.
主要股指仍接近历史高点，但投资者越来越质疑人工智能热潮的强劲程度，并密切关注科技股的下跌。
Major stock indexes remain close to record highs (.SPX), (.STOXX), but investors are increasingly questioning the strength of the AI boom and watching the decline in technology shares closely.
仅上个月，纳斯达克100指数的市值就蒸发了超过2万亿美元。进一步下跌可能侵蚀家庭财富、推高企业融资成本并抑制投资者的风险偏好，从而可能拖累未来投资。
More than $2 trillion was wiped off the Nasdaq 100's market value last month alone. Further declines could erode household wealth, raise corporate funding costs and curb investors' appetite for risk, potentially weighing on future investment.
花旗在报告中表示：“上周，随着信贷利差扩大、股价下跌，金融环境有所收紧。但美联储（美国联邦储备委员会）官员可能尚未准备好断定其限制性已足够。”
"Financial conditions tightened last week as credit spreads widened, and equity prices fell. But Fed (US Federal Reserve) officials may not yet be ready to conclude they are sufficiently restrictive," Citi said in a note.
周三公布的数据显示，10月欧元区经济增长大幅放缓，需求几近停滞，同时成本上升挤压企业，信心降至五个月来最低水平。
Economic growth in the euro zone slowed sharply in October as demand came close to stalling, while rising costs squeezed businesses and confidence fell to its lowest level in five months, data showed on Wednesday.
花旗的欧洲经济意外指数也指向下行。该指数衡量数据是超出还是低于预期。
Citi's European economic surprise index, which measures whether data beat or missed expectations, is also pointing lower (.CESIEUR).
美国经济增长仍具韧性，部分得益于对人工智能基础设施的大规模投资。
US growth remains resilient, supported in part by heavy investment in AI infrastructure.
Federated Hermes全球固定收益首席投资官RJ Gallo提醒不要过度使用“滞胀”一词，该词描述的是高通胀、低增长和高失业率并存的情况。
RJ Gallo, chief investment officer for global fixed income at Federated Hermes, cautioned against overusing the term stagflation, which describes a combination of high inflation, weak growth and elevated unemployment.
他指出，美国经济仍以稳健步伐增长，4.2%的失业率按历史标准衡量仍处于低位，并补充说“通胀仍是美联储的首要关切”。
He noted that the US economy continues to grow at a solid pace and that unemployment, at 4.2%, remains low by historical standards, adding that "inflation continues to be the Fed's primary concern".