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严峻的通胀新现实Harsh new inflation reality

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一个担忧表情符号的插图,其嘴部是一条向上趋势线。Illustration of a worried emoji with an upward trend line as the mouth.

美国的通胀问题顽固难解,波及范围不断扩大,且毫无缓解迹象。

America's inflation problem is stubborn, broadening out and showing no sign of letting up. Why it matters:

为何重要: 10月是通胀连续第三个月高于预期,打破了过去几年间一再出现的预测,即价格压力终于即将缓解。

October marked the third straight month of hotter-than-expected inflation defying repeated predictions over the last couple of years that price pressures were finally about to ease.

  • 在价格连续第六年大幅上涨之际,消费者发现无处躲避通胀的影响。

• In this sixth consecutive year of steep price increases, consumers are finding there is nowhere to hide from inflation.

  • 伊朗战争加剧了痛苦,但关税和人工智能投资热潮等其他因素也推高了成本,使这场远早于冲突就已存在的负担能力问题更加复杂。

• The Iran war has added to the pain, but other factors — tariffs and the AI investment boom — have also put upward pressure on costs, complicating an affordability problem that long predates the conflict.

各方表态: Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师西玛·沙阿周二上午写道:“今天的通胀报告是一记警钟。”

What they're saying: "Today's inflation report is a warning shot," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote Tuesday morning.

  • 沙阿写道:“中期选举暴露出选民对负担能力的担忧之深,而仅仅一周之后就传来这一消息,对美联储而言,这一信号令人不安但清晰明确:抗击通胀的斗争尚未结束。”

• "Coming just a week after the midterm elections exposed the depth of voters' concerns about affordability, the message for the Fed is uncomfortable but clear: The inflation fight is not finished," Shah wrote.

新闻驱动因素: 10月整体消费者价格指数上涨0.4%,较上月0.6%的涨幅略有回落。

Driving the news: The headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, down slightly from a 0.6% surge the previous month.

  • 核心CPI——剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本——连续第三个月上涨0.3%,表明潜在通胀压力依然顽固持续。

• Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — climbed 0.3% for the third consecutive month, a sign that underlying inflationary pressures remain stubbornly persistent.

劳工部没有计算10月的年通胀率,因为去年的政府停摆导致其无法收集2025年10月的价格数据。

The Labor Department did not calculate October's annual inflation rate since last year's government shutdown prevented it from collecting price data for October 2025.

  • 但假设该月价格处于9月和11月的中点,则过去12个月的整体通胀率为4%,高于9月的3.7%。核心通胀率则升至2.8%,高于2.6%。

• But assuming prices that month were halfway between September and November, overall inflation over the last 12 months was 4% — up from 3.7% in September. Core inflation would have risen to 2.8%, up from 2.6%.

  • 另一项指标同样描绘出通胀高企的图景。截至10月的三个月里,核心价格按年率计算上涨3.7%,为该指标全年最快增速。

• Another measure similarly paints a picture of hot inflation. Core prices rose at a 3.7% annualized pace over the three months through October, the fastest pace by this gauge all year.

  • 与夏季相比这也是急剧加速,当时潜在通胀似乎正在降温。

• It also is a sharp acceleration from the summer, when underlying inflation appeared to be cooling.

宏观视角: 10月汽油价格又上涨1%,此前9月已飙升9.1%,自伊朗战争爆发以来燃油成本的急剧上涨进一步加剧。

Zoom out: Gasoline prices advanced another 1% in October after surging 9.1% in September, adding to the steep increase in fuel costs since the Iran war began.

  • 食品价格上涨,引发担忧:柴油成本上升正传导至消费价格。杂货价格上涨0.4%,而9月曾下降;餐馆价格上涨0.5%。

• Food prices climbed, raising concerns that higher diesel costs are rippling through to consumer prices. Grocery prices increased 0.4% after declining in September, while restaurant prices gained 0.5%.

  • 住房成本上涨0.3%,占上月消费价格总体涨幅的30%以上。

• Shelter costs rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall increase in consumer prices last month.

服务业通胀持续存在,而服务业在很大程度上不受能源价格波动影响。

Inflation is persistent in the services sector, which is largely insulated from swings in energy prices.

  • 备受关注的剔除住房、能源和食品价格的指标10月飙升0.4%,受交通运输、医疗保健和保险成本上升推动。

• The closely watched measure, which excludes housing, energy and food prices, surged 0.4% in October — pushed up by higher costs in transportation, medical care and insurance.

接下来关注什么强劲的劳动力市场并未给急剧上升的生活成本带来多少缓解。

What to A strong labor market is not providing much relief from the sharply rising cost of living.

  • 通胀目前已连续三个月超过或持平于工资增长,导致劳动者的购买力下降。

• Inflation has now outpaced or matched wage growth for three consecutive months, leaving workers with less purchasing power.

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