Investing.com - 根据 Truflation 的预测，受伊朗战争导致的高昂能源成本持续上行压力影响，预计截至 10 月的 12 个月内，美国消费者价格上涨 3.8%，环比上涨 0.3%。
Investing.com - U.S. consumer prices are estimated to have risen by 3.8% in the twelve months to October and 0.3% month-on-month, amid ongoing upward pressure from elevated energy costs caused by the Iran war, according to Truflation predictions.
使用 InvestingPro 追踪关键经济指标 - 现享 55% 折扣 另类数据提供商 Truflation 在声明中表示，剔除食品和燃料等波动性项目后，所谓的“核心”指标预计同比上涨 2.8%，环比上涨 0.2%。
Track key economic indicators with InvestingPro - now 55% off Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the so-called "core" gauge is seen standing at 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, the alternative data provider said in a statement.
Truflation 表示：“总体通胀正在缓和，但上游通胀管道依然活跃。能源和关税正在支撑商品通胀再次抬头。进入 2027 年的关键风险在于，在消费者价格敏感度上升和劳动力成本缓和能够抵消这些因素之前，不断上升的供应成本是否会蔓延为持续的核心通胀。”
"Headline inflation is moderating, but upstream inflation pipeline remains active. Energy and tariffs are supporting renewed goods inflation. The key risk heading into 2027 is whether rising supply costs spread into persistent core inflation before consumer price sensitivity and moderating labor costs can offset them," Truflation said.
该机构补充称，预计到今年年底和 2027 年初将出现“参差不齐的通胀”，由于关税和投入成本推高商品价格，但服务成本稳定部分抵消了这一影响。关税预计将推高零售价格，尽管由于零售商打折促销和供应改善，食品杂货价格预计将下跌。
The group added that it expects "uneven inflation" through the end of the year and early into 2027, with heightened goods prices due to tariffs and input expenses partially offset by stable services costs. Levies are seen pushing retail prices higher, although grocery prices are anticipated to fall because of retailer discounting and improving supplies.
Truflation 指出，能源仍是整体涨价的“主要波动因素”。对于 10 月，该机构预计能源价格同比上涨 20.7%，其中汽油价格特别是上涨 37.7%。环比来看，汽油价格涨幅预计将放缓至 0.3%。
Energy is still the "principal swing factor" for overall price gains, Truflation flagged. For October, the group projected a 20.7% rise in energy prices versus a year earlier, with gasoline in particular climbing 37.7%. Month-on-month, gas price growth is tipped to moderate to 0.3%.
较高的加油成本助长了对可负担性的不满，这在一定程度上推动了选民在11月初的中期选举中对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普经济政策的强烈谴责。选民在多场全州范围的竞选中广泛支持挑战特朗普共和党候选人的民主党人，使民主党在此过程中控制了国会两院。这一胜利可能会使特朗普更难积极推行其政策目标，包括与伊朗的持续战争以及对全球贸易伙伴征收关税。
Higher costs at the gas pump helped fuel discontentment over affordability that partially drove a sharp rebuke of U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policy in midterm elections earlier in November. Voters widely supported Democratic challengers to Trump's Republican candidates in several statewide races, giving Democrats control over both chambers of Congress in the process. The victory could make it more difficult for Trump to aggressively pursue his policy goals, including the ongoing war with Iran and tariffs on global trading partners.
关键在于，劳工部周二公布的月度消费者价格指数结果可能会影响对美联储12月和2027年利率政策的预测。上周五公布的强劲劳动力市场数据增强了这样一种观点：美联储决策者可能认为他们有空间在下个月再次加息，此前官员们在9月实施了三年来的首次加息。理论上，提高借贷成本可以抑制通胀，但也伴随着拖累整体经济活动和就业市场的风险。
Crucially, the outcome of the Labor Department's monthly consumer-price index on Tuesday could sway projections for Federal Reserve interest rate policy in December and 2027. Solid labor market data last Friday bolstered the case that Fed policymakers may believe they have the headroom to raise rates once again next month, after officials rolled out their first increase in three years in September. In theory, lifting borrowing costs can quell inflation, albeit at the risk of weighing on overall economic activity and the job market.
根据CME美联储观察工具，交易员目前预计12月加息25个基点的概率约为79%。Vital Knowledge的分析师在一份报告中表示，投资者在想知道这是否会是一段时间内的最后一次加息，因为如果美国和伊朗达成缓和，油价可能会下滑。
According to CME FedWatch, traders are now pricing in a roughly 79% chance of a quarter-point rate rise in December. Investors are wondering whether that could be the last increase for a while, given the possibility that oil prices may slide should the U.S. and Iran reach a detente, analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.
官方政府数据显示，9月总体消费价格同比增长3.7%，环比增长0.6%。“核心”指标同比增长2.6%，环比增长0.3%。
In September, headline consumer price growth was 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, official government data showed. The "core" gauge was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% on a monthly basis.
Truflation指出，由于劳工统计局2025年10月的消费者价格指数因联邦政府停摆而未发布，因此无法计算直接的同比对比。因此，Truflation表示，其预测将2025年9月的CPI水平延续至2025年10月，假设缺失期间月度变化为零。
Truflation noted that a direct year-over-year comparison cannot be calculated because the October 2025 consumer-price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was not released due to a federal government shutdown at the time. As a result, Truflation said its prediction carries forward the September 2025 CPI level into October 2025, assuming no monthly change for the missing period.