乌克兰对特朗普中期选举惨败表现出谨慎乐观，也流传笑话民主党在中期选举中大获全胜，这可能改变和平谈判的进程，以及即将步入第五个年头的战争走向。
Guarded Optimism, and Some Jokes, in Ukraine Over Trump’s Midterm Wipeout Victory for Democrats could alter the course of peace negotiations and a war nearing its fifth year.
随着特朗普总统让美国更加向莫斯科靠拢，他猛烈抨击乌克兰领导人泽连斯基。“是时候让乌克兰换个总统了，”特朗普上个月宣称。
As President Trump has moved the United States into greater alignment with Moscow, he has lashed out at the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelensky. “It’s time for Ukraine to get a new president,” Mr. Trump declared last month.
但在民主党周二在中期选举中大获全胜、明确否定特朗普之后，乌克兰网络上流传着一个笑话：看来是美国人民想换个总统。
But after Democrats swept Tuesday’s midterm elections in an unequivocal repudiation of Mr. Trump, a joke circulated online in Ukraine: It seemed that it was the American people who wanted to get a new president.
这一丝幽默凸显了美国政治剧烈摇摆如何让乌克兰人感到震惊。美国曾是乌克兰在战争中最重要的盟友。随后特朗普重返白宫，对基辅的态度忽冷忽热，时而强硬时而极度冷淡。
This touch of humor underscored how wild American political swings have jarred Ukrainians. The United States was once Ukraine’s most important ally in the war. Then Mr. Trump returned to office, blowing hot and at times very cold on Kyiv.
“由于这些选举，基辅和乌克兰的总体乐观情绪有所上升，”乌克兰议会外交事务委员会主席亚历山大·梅列日科表示。“我们相信国会将对特朗普试图与普京达成交易起到威慑作用。”但梅列日科警告说，乌克兰人在特朗普公开站在俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京一边的惨淡背景下，渴望任何好消息，不应陷入盲目狂喜。“对我们现在来说，重要的是不要忘记共和党，不要伤害他们的感情，并与两党都保持良好关系，”他说。
“The general level of optimism in Kyiv and in Ukraine has risen as a result of these elections,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian Parliament. “We believe that Congress will be a deterrent against attempts by Trump to make deals with Putin.”But Mr. Merezhko cautioned that Ukrainians, looking for any good news against the bleak backdrop of Mr. Trump’s openly siding with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, shouldn’t be carried away with euphoria. “For us right now, it’s important not to forget about Republicans, not to hurt their feelings and to retain good relations with both parties,” he said.
现实情况是，特朗普任期还剩两年，乌克兰的生存依然与华盛顿不断变化的政治潮流紧密相连。随着防空系统和军队兵力的消耗，预计未来几个月乌克兰将面临战争以来最严酷的一个冬天，因为俄罗斯正瞄准其民用能源基础设施发动袭击。中期选举将如何影响战争与和平谈判，在很大程度上将取决于特朗普在其剩余任期内采取的路线。
The reality for Ukraine is that Mr. Trump has two years left in his term, and the country’s survival remains intertwined with the shifting political currents in Washington. With depleted air defenses and military ranks, Ukraine is expected to face its worst winter of the war in the coming months, as Russia takes aim at its civilian energy infrastructure. How exactly the midterms will affect the war and peace negotiations will depend in large part on the course Mr. Trump takes during his remaining time in office.
特朗普表示，他在周四于白宫举行的一个仪式后，在华盛顿会见了克里姆林宫特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫，该仪式由俄罗斯和乌克兰官员共同出席，旨在表彰第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普近日在俄控城市奥列什基斡旋达成停火和人道主义任务。会见德米特里耶夫后，特朗普预测将很快达成结束乌克兰战争的协议。
Mr. Trump said he met Thursday with the Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Washington after a ceremony at the White House, attended by both Russian and Ukrainian officials, that honored the first lady, Melania Trump, for brokering a cease-fire and humanitarian mission in the Russian-controlled city of Oleshky in recent days. After meeting Mr. Dmitriev, Mr. Trump predicted a deal to end the war in Ukraine soon.
“这将是一项重大协议，且将涉及的不仅仅是乌克兰，”特朗普说。“我甚至可以说，它可能涉及整个欧洲。这将是一项重大、美好的协议，每个人都会感到欣喜。” 官方层面上，在特朗普的特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳预计下周在阿布扎比召集俄乌和平谈判之前，莫斯科对选举结果基本保持中立姿态。
“It’s going to be a big agreement, and it’s going to involve more than Ukraine,” Mr. Trump said. “I could even say it might involve all of Europe. It’s going to be a big, beautiful agreement, and everyone’s going to be thrilled.”Officially, Moscow has largely put on a neutral face over the election results ahead of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine that Mr. Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to convene in Abu Dhabi next week.
“特朗普总统将继续行使其总统职权，”克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·S·佩斯科夫周四对记者说。“特朗普总统将继续推行他的外交政策。其他一切，在我们看来，都是美国的内政。” 俄罗斯前总统、现任俄罗斯安全会议副主席德米特里·A·梅德韦杰夫在社交媒体上表示，莫斯科必须专注于在战场上粉碎乌克兰，直到取得彻底胜利。
“President Trump will continue to exercise his presidential powers,” the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters on Thursday. “President Trump will continue to pursue his foreign policy. Everything else, in our view, is an internal affair of the United States.”Dmitri A. Medvedev, the former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Russian security council, said on social media that Moscow must focus on smashing Ukraine on the battlefield until total victory was achieved.
梅德韦杰夫表示：“唐纳德·特朗普在争夺国会控制权的战斗中遭遇了惨败。这将如何影响我们的利益？从大局来看，可能完全没有影响——至少目前是这样。”一些俄罗斯分析人士表示希望，认为选举结果可能为和平协议提供一个机会窗口。他们辩称，特朗普及其特使将在未来两个月内拥有额外动力去斡旋达成协议，以免在民主党控制的国会接管后，阻碍对俄罗斯有利的协议达成。
“Donald Trump has suffered a crushing defeat in the battle for Congress,” Mr. Medvedev said. “How will this affect our interests? In the grand scheme of things, probably not at all — at least for now.”Some Russian analysts expressed hope that the election result could represent a window of opportunity for a peace deal. Mr. Trump and his envoys, they argued, will have extra incentive to broker an agreement in the next two months, before a Democratic-controlled Congress takes over and stands in the way of a deal favorable to Russia.
在此期间，特朗普和普京有可能会晤两次——第一次是本月在深圳举行的亚太经济合作组织（APEC）峰会期间，第二次是下月在迈阿密举行的二十国集团（G20）峰会期间。
It is possible that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin will meet twice over that period — first this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, and then again next month at the Group of 20 summit in Miami.
但俄罗斯其他人士认为，将希望寄托在未来几个月是一厢情愿。他们对这一政治变化表示惋惜，称这将不可避免地削弱特朗普在与莫斯科打交道时的权力，以及他兑现克里姆林宫在乌克兰问题上诉求的能力。
But others in Russia see any hopes pinned to the next few months as wishful thinking. They lamented a political change that they said would inevitably reduce Mr. Trump’s power in his dealings with Moscow and his ability to deliver on what the Kremlin wanted in Ukraine.
“如今唐纳德·特朗普提出的任何东西在美国都将面临障碍，因此，在乌克兰问题上，特朗普的一切都将变得复杂，”资深亲克里姆林宫国家媒体评论员弗拉基米尔·索洛维约夫周三表示。
“Now anything Donald Trump might propose will face roadblocks in America, and because of that, everything is going to be complicated for Trump in Ukraine,” Vladimir Solovyov, a top pro-Kremlin state news commentator, said on Wednesday.
在网上发布的一段视频中，索洛维约夫称中期选举结果是泽连斯基的“凯旋”。
In a video posted online, Mr. Solovyov called the midterm results a “triumph” for Mr. Zelensky.
“他在椭圆形办公室受辱一事上完成了复仇，”索洛维约夫说，指的是乌克兰总统去年年初与特朗普的电视公开冲突。“他感觉自己像个赢家。”泽连斯基在评论选举时保持了平衡。他在接受德国公共广播电视台ZDF采访、发表投票后的首次公开评论时，对支持乌克兰的共和党人表示感谢，但也承认了明显的形势变化。
“He avenged the humiliation in the Oval Office,” Mr. Solovyov said, referring to the Ukrainian president’s televised clash with Mr. Trump early last year. “He feels like a winner.”Mr. Zelensky struck a balance in commenting on the election. Speaking to the German public broadcaster ZDF in his first comments after the vote, he expressed gratitude to the Republicans who had stood by Ukraine, but acknowledged the clear shift.
“民主党人非常明确地表达了对乌克兰的支持以及向乌克兰提供援助，”泽连斯基说。“他们谈论恢复美国与欧洲之间的联系。”
“The Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine and providing assistance to Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said. “They speak about renewing the connection between the United States and Europe.”
泽连斯基表示希望“会出现一种力量平衡，我们将获得更多支持。”乌克兰反对党“欧洲团结党”政治家弗拉基米尔·阿列耶夫表示，公开拥抱国会中的民主党人将是一个失策，因为特朗普在外交政策上仍拥有广泛的自由裁量权。
Mr. Zelensky expressed hope “that a balance of power will emerge and that we will receive more support.”Open embrace of Democrats in Congress would be a misstep, said Volodymyr Ariev, a Ukrainian politician from the opposition European Solidarity party, as Mr. Trump still has broad leeway in foreign policy.
“我们不应欢迎民主党获胜，而应欢迎美国的民主，”长期主张在华盛顿采取两党接触战略的阿列耶夫说。
“We should not welcome a Democrat victory but welcome democracy in the United States,” said Mr. Ariev, a longtime backer of a strategy of bipartisan engagement in Washington.
“我们不应成为美国大选的一部分，”他说。“共和党内有许多乌克兰的支持者。”乌克兰人希望国会监督能使特朗普主导的谈判核心——与俄罗斯达成的全面商业交易——变得不太可能发生。
“We should not be part of American elections,” he said. “Among Republicans there are a lot of Ukraine supporters.”Ukrainians hope that congressional oversight will make the sweeping business deals with Russia at the heart of the Trump-led negotiations far less likely.
至少，基辅的官员希望由民主党主导的国会能对特朗普推动的谈判解决方案实施监督，许多乌克兰人担心这将战争视为向莫斯科做出商业让步的契机。
At a minimum, officials in Kyiv hope that a Democratic-led Congress will impose oversight on Mr. Trump’s push for a negotiated settlement, which many in Ukraine fear treats the war as an opening for commercial concessions to Moscow.
基辅的立法者还预计，国会将审查像亿万富翁、SpaceX创始人埃隆·马斯克这样的人物，因为上个月他在乌克兰军事行动期间限制了“星盾”卫星连接。
Lawmakers in Kyiv also anticipate congressional scrutiny into figures like the billionaire SpaceX founder Elon Musk over the throttling of Starshield satellite connectivity during Ukrainian military operations last month.
已经有两党的美国议员展示了他们如何利用在国会和州一级的权力来阻挠特朗普对莫斯科的让步。
Already, American lawmakers in both parties have shown how they can use their power in Congress and at the state level to stymie Mr. Trump’s concessions to Moscow.
在“星链”事件后，宾夕法尼亚州共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克牵头推动追究SpaceX和国防部的责任。他誓言要确保任何涉事美国官员受到惩罚，并扣留采取此类行动的任何机构的联邦拨款。
After the Starlink episode, Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, Republican of Pennsylvania, led a charge to hold SpaceX and the Defense Department accountable. He vowed to make sure that any U.S. officials involved would be punished and that federal funding would be withheld for any agency taking such an action.
新泽西州州长、民主党人米基·谢里尔警告该州港口，若因特朗普与普京达成的协议而接受俄罗斯柴油，将构成违法。谢里尔指出，特朗普无权无限制地豁免国会通过的对俄制裁。据环保组织绿色和平发布的一款追踪工具显示，数艘装载俄罗斯柴油的油轮已改变航向，美国尚无确认交付案例。尽管基辅方面持谨慎乐观态度，乌克兰官员表示，国会大幅换届强化了维持其长期培育的广泛两党支持的必要性。
Gov. Mikie Sherrill, Democrat of New Jersey, warned ports in the state that accepting Russian diesel fuel as a result of a deal between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin would amount to a violation of the law. Ms. Sherrill pointed out that Mr. Trump did not have an unlimited ability to waive sanctions against Russia passed by Congress. According to a tracker launched by the environmental group Greenpeace, several tankers carrying Russian diesel have diverted, and no confirmed deliveries have taken place in the United States. Despite the guarded optimism in Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said the huge turnover in Congress reinforced the need to preserve the broad bipartisan support they had long cultivated.
中期选举给亲乌克兰阵营带来显著损失，包括菲茨帕特里克等关键盟友在内。其他重要人物也将离开国会，如资深共和党参议员米奇·麦康奈尔和汤姆·蒂利斯，而许多新当选议员尚未明确阐述其对援乌立场。
The midterms brought notable losses to the pro-Ukraine coalition, including key allies like Mr. Fitzpatrick. Other important figures are also departing Congress, such as the veteran Republican senators Mitch McConnell and Thom Tillis, while many incoming members have yet to clearly articulate their positions on aid to Ukraine.
乌克兰方面担忧，俄罗斯可能判断中期选举后特朗普政府实力削弱，过于无力主导和谈。乌克兰目前别无选择：基辅鼓励欧洲参与谈判，但俄罗斯已明确表示美国处于主导地位。
Ukrainians worry that Russia could assess the Trump administration, weakened after the midterms, as too ineffectual to lead peace talks. Ukraine has no alternative for now: Kyiv has encouraged European engagement in talks, but Russia has made clear that the United States is in the driver’s seat.
“毫无可庆祝之处，”乌克兰议会反对派“欧洲团结”党成员奥列克西·洪恰连科在社交媒体上写道。“和平问题将退居次位”，让位于特朗普与民主党的内斗，他写道。“俄罗斯可能彻底放弃谈判。”奥列格·马茨涅夫参与了报道。
“There’s nothing to celebrate,” Oleksiy Honcharenko, a member of Ukraine’s Parliament with the opposition European Solidarity, wrote on social media. “The issue of peace will take a back seat” to infighting between Mr. Trump and the Democrats, he wrote. “Russia may abandon negotiations altogether.”Oleg Matsnev contributed reporting.
保罗·桑尼是莫斯科分社社长，负责统筹俄罗斯、高加索和中亚地区的报道，常驻柏林。
Paul Sonne is the Moscow bureau chief, leading coverage of Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia. He is based in Berlin.
安德鲁·克雷默是《纽约时报》基辅分社社长，自2014年起持续报道乌克兰战争。
Andrew E. Kramer is the Kyiv bureau chief for The Times, who has been covering the war in Ukraine since 2014.
马克·桑托拉自俄乌战争爆发以来一直在乌克兰进行报道。他此前常驻伦敦，担任国际新闻编辑，专注于突发新闻事件；更早之前，他曾任东欧和中欧分社社长，常驻华沙。他还曾在伊拉克和非洲进行过大量报道。
Marc Santora has been reporting from Ukraine since the beginning of the war with Russia. He was previously based in London as an international news editor focused on breaking news events and earlier the bureau chief for East and Central Europe, based in Warsaw. He has also reported extensively from Iraq and Africa.