周二的“蓝色浪潮”并未化解两党内部的分歧。事实上，《政治报》民调显示，这些分歧甚至可能进一步加剧。
Tuesday’s blue wave didn’t resolve either party’s internal divides. In fact, The POLITICO Poll shows they may even get worse.
即便在选举日之前，数周的民调显示，共和党内部就已因应将多大程度归咎于唐纳德·特朗普总统导致惨败的规模而四分五裂。特朗普试图与这场选举惨败划清界限——声称失利是因为他本人不在选票上——与此同时，一些共和党人开始权衡后特朗普时代的共和党前景。
Even ahead of Election Day, Republicans were already torn over how much to blame President Donald Trump for the scale of the defeat, weeks of polling show. While Trump distances himself from the electoral blowout — saying the loss was because he wasn’t on the ballot himself — some Republicans are beginning to weigh what a post-Trump GOP looks like.
另一方面，民主党取得了足够大的胜利，以至于该党几乎所有派系都能将其作为支持其议程的证据，根据PF Global进行的民调，这反而使该党未能团结一致。因此，周二这场决定性的浪潮，几乎未能推动他们超越贯穿整个周期的温和派与进步派内斗。
Democrats, on the other hand, have scored a large-enough victory that instead of being united, nearly all factions of the party can claim it as evidence of support for their agenda, according to the surveys conducted by PF Global. Tuesday’s decisive wave, therefore, has done little to move them past the moderate and progressive infighting that has shaped much of this cycle.
有一点很清楚：两党领袖在关键的2028年总统大选前，要拼凑出一个获胜联盟，还有大量工作要做。
One thing is clear: Both party’s leaders have a lot of work to do to stitch together a winning coalition ahead of a critical 2028 presidential race.
以下是选民在给总统造成历史性重创前夕向我们传达的一些关键信息。（我们很快将再次对他们进行民调，以了解选后他们的立场可能发生了怎样的变化。）共和党选民对中期选举是否会分裂其党意见不一 选前，共和党中期选举选民告诉《政治报》民调，他们对在众议院和参议院取得胜利充满信心。尽管如此，29%的人认为共和党将从选举中走出更分裂的局面，而另外29%则表示会走出更团结的局面。
Here are some key takeaways from what voters were telling us right before they delivered a historically heavy blow to the president. (We’re polling them again soon to see how they may have shifted in the wake of the election.) Republicans voters were torn over whether the midterms would divide their party Before the elections, Republican midterm voters told The POLITICO Poll they were confident about a victory in the House and the Senate. Despite that, 29% felt that the GOP would come out of the elections more divided, while another 29% said it would come out more unified.
相比之下，45%的民主党选民表示，他们预期本党在选举结果出炉后会更加团结——即使当时他们尚不知结果如何。
That’s compared with 45% of Democratic voters who said they expected more unity in their party after the election results — even before they knew what would happen.
共和党策略师和议员已就共和党的未来发出严厉警告：如果该党不从选民对经济、伊朗战争和特朗普政府的不满中吸取教训，前景堪忧。
Republican strategists and lawmakers have already issued stark warnings about the future of the GOP if the party doesn’t learn from voters’ frustrations with the economy, the Iran war and the Trump administration.
“今晚的惨败应该是一个警钟，”参议员约翰·柯蒂斯（共和党-犹他州）周二晚在 Substack 上的一篇长文中写道。“但如果我们的反应是指责媒体、民调或选民，我们将一无所获。我们或许可以从照照镜子开始。” 特朗普的联盟破碎——许多他的选民想与他划清界限 部分共和党人直接指责特朗普，后者周二晚见证了自己的联盟破碎。蓝色浪潮不分地区：红县和蓝县、西班牙裔占多数的县和白人占多数的县、城市地区和郊区地区全都向左转移。
“Tonight’s shellacking should be a wake-up call,” Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) wrote in a lengthy Substack post on Tuesday night. “But if our response is to blame the media, the polls, or the voters, we’ll have learned absolutely nothing. We might start by looking in the mirror." Trump’s coalition shattered — and many of his voters want to distance from him Some Republicans are directly blaming Trump, who saw his coalition shatter on Tuesday night. The blue wave spared no region: Red counties and blue counties, Hispanic-heavy counties and white counties, urban areas and suburban areas all shifted to the left.
《政治报》民调显示，自认“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的特朗普选民——他最忠诚的支持者——与不这么认同的选民之间出现了关键性分裂，后者构成了他 2024 年联盟中较为松动的部分。
The POLITICO Poll shows there’s been a critical split between Trump voters who identify as MAGA — his most loyal supporters — and those who don’t, who make up the softer part of his 2024 coalition.
大多数 MAGA 特朗普选民表示，中期选举失利将成为他们更靠近特朗普议程的理由。非 MAGA 特朗普选民则持相反看法：对他们而言，众参两院失利是与特朗普决裂的理由。
A majority of MAGA Trump voters said they would see a midterm election loss as a reason to move closer to Trump’s agenda. Non-MAGA Trump voters said the opposite: For them, a defeat in the House and the Senate was a reason to break away.
这种裂痕将持续到选举结果之外——这反映了共和党选民基础在过去一年里在多个问题上一直在瓦解。《政治报》民调一再显示，非 MAGA 特朗普选民在从物价负担能力到移民与海关执法局（ICE）、再到伊朗战争、以及数据中心等所有问题上，都与他们的 MAGA 伙伴背道而驰。
The fracture will persist beyond the election results — and it reflects the fact that Republicans’ voter base has been falling apart on a number of issues over the course of the last year. The POLITICO Poll has repeatedly shown that non-MAGA Trump voters break away from their MAGA bedfellows on everything from affordability to ICE to the war in Iran to data centers.
“是时候考虑唐纳德·特朗普之后的生活会是什么样子了，”北卡罗来纳州加斯顿县前共和党主席、现任契约事务官员乔纳森·弗莱彻说，那里举办了落选参议员候选人迈克尔·沃特利的竞选聚会。“特朗普做了一些很棒的事情，我对此表示赞赏，但共和党不能永远是特朗普的党。”民主党人对于重大胜利对党的方向意味着什么也意见不一。民主党需要为自己内部的一些激烈讨论做好准备。我们的民调显示，胜利的规模将塑造民主党选民希望该党采取的方向。
“It’s time to consider what life is going to be like after Donald Trump,” said Jonathan Fletcher, of deeds and former GOP chair of Gaston County, North Carolina, where failed Senate nominee Michael Whatley’s watch party was held. “Trump has done some excellent things, and I appreciate that, but it can't be the party of Trump forever.”Democrats are not on the same page about what major wins mean for party direction The Democratic Party needs to brace for some fiery discussions of its own. Our polling showed that the scale of the victory would shape the direction Democratic voters would want to see from the party.
多数民主党中期选举选民表示，周二如果取得大胜将成为推出进步派候选人的理由。
A plurality of Democratic midterm voters said a massive victory Tuesday would be a reason to run progressive candidates.
但这主要是由自认为是进步派的人推动的，其中61%持这一立场。温和派民主党人则更加纠结，在这种情形下，35%的人认为该党应推出更多进步派，36%的人认为该党应推出温和派。选举后，该党意识形态内战的双方都已开始宣称胜利。
But that was driven by self-identified progressives, 61% of whom take that position. Moderate Democrats were more torn, with 35% saying the party should run more progressives in that scenario, and 36% saying the party should run moderates. Already in the aftermath of the election, both sides of the party’s ideological civil war began to claim victory.
中间派民主党组织“第三条道路”在周三发布的一份备忘录中写道：“随着民主党展望下一次总统大选，本周期的教训是明确无误的：高素质的中间派民主党人是2026年的多数派缔造者——他们也是2028年的典范。”
“As the Democratic Party looks to the next presidential election, the lesson from this cycle is unequivocal: high-quality Democrats in the middle were the majority makers in 2026 — and they are the model for 2028,” the centrist Democratic group Third Way wrote in a memo published Wednesday.
温和派指出民主党在红州的胜利——从堪萨斯州参议员亚当·汉密尔顿到得克萨斯州参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科再到爱荷华州参议员乔什·图雷克——作为他们需要采取中间路线以保住这些胜利并为2028年做好准备的例证。
Moderates are pointing to Democratic wins in red-states — from Adam Hamilton for Kansas Senate to James Talarico for Texas Senate to Josh Turek for Iowa Senate — as examples of the middle-of-the-road approach they need to take to hold onto those victories and set themselves up for 2028.
进步变革委员会在选后发布的备忘录中辩称：“‘温和派’和‘进步派’之类的标签掩盖了明确的主线。”该委员会指出：“民主党内部的重心已转向经济民粹主义方向。”他们也有自己的胜利可供展示，包括缅因州参议院选举中的特洛伊·杰克逊以及密歇根州参议院选举中的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德。
The Progressive Change Campaign Committee, for its part, argued “labels like ‘moderate’ and ‘progressive’ obscure a clear throughline,” according to a memo published after the election. “The center of gravity in the Democratic Party has shifted in an economic populist direction.”They have their own wins to point to, including Troy Jackson in the Maine Senate race and Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race.
对民主党而言还有另一个核心问题：他们所建立的最强联盟似乎是围绕对特朗普的反弹而形成的。即使在选前的最后一次《政治人物》民调中，超过半数的民主党选民（53%）表示，他们投票的动机是为了投反对特朗普，而不是为了支持或反对当地候选人。
There’s another core problem for Democrats: It looks likely that the strongest coalition they built was centered on backlash to Trump. Even in the final POLITICO Poll before the election, over half of Democratic voters (53%) said they were casting their ballots to vote against Trump, rather than for or against their local candidates.
这意味着民主党必须努力确保新获得的选民在特朗普离任后仍然留下。
That means the Democratic Party has work to do to ensure their new voters stick around once Trump is gone.
塞布·赖德是总部位于伦敦、负责运营《政治人物》民调的PF Global的民调主管。
Seb Wride is the head of polling at PF Global, the London-based firm that runs The POLITICO Poll.