
印尼议员要求调查副总统吉布兰学历资质的呼声日益高涨,引发外界对其父亲、前总统佐科·维多多影响力的质疑,同时也显示出该国执政精英内部出现裂痕的迹象。
A growing push among Indonesian lawmakers to investigate Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s academic credentials is raising questions about the influence of his father, former leader Joko Widodo, as signs of a rift within the country’s ruling elite grow.
分析人士指出,这一挑战来自总统普拉博沃·苏比安托自己的执政联盟内部,凸显出助推他在2024年掌权的政治联盟可能正在瓦解。
The challenge comes from within President Prabowo Subianto’s own coalition, underscoring how the political alliance that helped propel him to power in 2024 may be unravelling, analysts have said.
此前,佐科的一位重要盟友因窃听丑闻被捕,且雅加达出现异常大规模的军队调动,这些事态发展加剧了外界对前总统影响力衰退的猜测。
It also follows the arrest of a prominent Widodo ally in a widening wiretapping scandal and an unusually large military mobilisation in Jakarta, developments that have fuelled speculation about the former president’s waning influence.
众议院(DPR)内部的政治派系已开始讨论动用议会监督权,缘由是最高法院于10月30日裁定吉布兰的高中同等学力证书“无效”。
Political factions in the House of Representatives (DPR) have begun discussing the use of parliamentary oversight powers following an October 30 Supreme Court ruling that Gibran’s high school equivalency certificate was “invalid”.
作为佐科长子,吉布兰在佐科支持这位前将军成功竞选总统后,成为普拉博沃在2024年大选中的竞选搭档。印尼要求副总统候选人至少具备高中毕业学历。
Gibran, Widodo’s eldest son, became Prabowo’s running mate in the 2024 presidential election after Widodo backed the former general’s successful bid for power. Indonesia requires vice-presidential candidates to have completed at least senior high school education.
据大选委员会(KPU)数据,吉布兰于2002年至2004年就读于新加坡兰花公园中学,随后于2004年至2007年在悉尼科技大学(UTS)Insearch学习三年。
According to data from the General Elections Commission, Gibran attended Orchid Park Secondary School in Singapore from 2002 to 2004, followed by three years at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Insearch from 2004 to 2007.
宪法法院上月裁定,未发现“令人信服的证据”证明吉布兰“持有……可作为其完成至少高中教育依据的国外文凭”。
The Constitutional Court ruled last month that it had not found “convincing evidence” that Gibran “possesses a diploma … from abroad that could serve as the basis for determining that he had completed at least senior high school”.
不过,法院仍驳回了针对其资质的诉讼请求,而最高法院关于其同等学力证书的裁决也不会自动导致其免职。
The court nevertheless dismissed the petition challenging his qualifications, while the Supreme Court ruling on his equivalency certificate did not automatically remove him from office.
这两项裁决促使议员们考虑行使调查权、质询权或表达意见权——这些议会机制允许议员调查政府行为、质询官员或就某一事项正式表明立场。
The two rulings have prompted lawmakers to consider invoking the right of inquiry, the right of interpellation or the right to express an opinion – parliamentary mechanisms that allow legislators to investigate government actions, question officials or formally state their position on a matter.
“繁荣正义党(PKS)已多次在中央执行委员会办公室收到来自公民社会的公众意见。PKS致力于以民主和宪法方式,运用议会赋予的权利来推进这些诉求,”议员、PKS高级官员穆罕默德·霍利德对《本周亚洲》表示。
“The Prosperous Justice Party [PKS] has received public input from civil society several times at the Central Executive Board office. PKS is committed to pursuing these aspirations democratically and constitutionally, using the rights afforded by the DPR,” Muhammad Kholid, a lawmaker and senior PKS official, told This Week in Asia.
PKS是普拉博沃广泛执政联盟中的七个议会政党之一,该联盟控制着议会81%的席位。
PKS is one of seven parliamentary parties in Prabowo’s broad ruling coalition, which controls 81 per cent of the seats in the legislature.
“我们目前正在评估各种选项。我们也在与其他政党沟通。显然,议会必须在其职权范围内跟进(这些)裁决,尤其是最高法院的裁决,”穆罕默德说。
“We are currently reviewing the options. We are also communicating with other parties. Clearly, DPR must follow up [on these] rulings, especially the Supreme Court’s, within its authority,” Muhammad said.
普拉博沃所属的大印尼运动党副主席哈比布罗赫曼表示,该党将在11月10日议会休会结束后讨论最高法院的裁决。
Habiburokhman, deputy chairman of Prabowo’s Gerindra party, said it would discuss the Supreme Court’s ruling after the parliamentary recess ended on November 10.
另一个联盟成员民族觉醒党周一在一份声明中表示,正在“认真评估”在吉布兰案中动用调查权的可能性。
Another coalition member, the National Awakening Party, said in a statement on Monday that it was “seriously reviewing” the use of the right of inquiry in Gibran’s case.
虽然此类调查可能加大对吉布兰的政治压力,但罢免副总统需要另行走宪法程序,涉及宪法法院和人民协商会议。
While such an inquiry could intensify political pressure on Gibran, removing a vice-president would require a separate constitutional process involving the Constitutional Court and the People’s Consultative Assembly.
吉布兰的律师穆罕默德·鲁利安迪强调,最高法院的裁决不影响其当事人作为副总统的职位。
Gibran’s lawyer, Muhammad Rullyandi, stressed that the Supreme Court decision did not affect his client’s position as vice-president.
维多多周四表示,他将“尊重所有现有的法律程序,也尊重”议会的“宪法权利”。
Widodo said on Thursday he would “respect all existing legal processes and also respect the constitutional rights” of parliament.
这位前总统本人也深陷一场旷日持久的法律纠纷,涉及他在加查马达大学的学位,反对者声称该学位系伪造。维多多否认了这一指控。
The former president is himself embroiled in a lengthy legal dispute over his degree from Gadjah Mada University, which opponents claim was fabricated. Widodo has denied the allegation.
部队部署 这项针对吉布兰的拟议调查,是在政治与安全紧张局势升级的背景下出现的。此前,三名高级警官——包括佐科维忠诚拥护者、前总统幕僚长利斯蒂约·西吉特·普拉博沃——因涉嫌窃听总统、内阁官员、记者和公民领袖而被捕。总统府表示,所谓的监控行动可能构成叛国罪。
Troop deployment The proposed investigation into Gibran has emerged against a backdrop of political and security tensions following the arrest of three senior police generals – including Widodo loyalist and former presidential chief of staff Listyo Sigit Prabowo – over allegations of wiretapping the president, cabinet officials, journalists and civic leaders. The presidential palace has said the alleged surveillance could amount to treason. Soon after the arrest, Indonesia’s armed forces (TNI) deployed troops and personnel to Jakarta, including nearly 21,000 Navy members.
逮捕行动发生后不久,印度尼西亚武装部队(TNI)向雅加达部署了部队和人员,其中包括近2.1万名海军官兵。
First Admiral Tunggul, a Navy spokesman, said in a statement on Wednesday that the move was to “maintain the security and stability” of Indonesia.
海军发言人通古尔一级上将周三在一份声明中表示,此举旨在“维护印度尼西亚的安全与稳定”。
Muhammad Nas, a TNI spokesman, called the deployment “common practice because TNI is required to always be ready to protect the entire nation”.
武装部队发言人穆罕默德·纳斯称,此次部署“属于常规做法,因为武装部队必须时刻准备保卫全国”。两位发言人均未详细说明印度尼西亚面临何种威胁。“致命的战略决策”最新的争议引发了外界疑问:随着佐科维政治影响力减弱,普拉博沃与佐科维之间是否正在出现更深层的裂痕。
Both spokesmen did not elaborate on what threats Indonesia is facing. ‘Fatal strategic decision’The latest controversies have raised questions about whether a deeper rift is emerging between Prabowo and Widodo as the latter’s political influence wanes.
新加坡伊萨·尤索夫研究院(ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute)访问研究员马德·苏普里亚特马表示,佐科维在2024年总统大选前将自己及其家族与普拉博沃绑定,这是一个“致命的战略决策”。
Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Widodo made a “fatal strategic decision” when he aligned himself and his family with Prabowo ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
马德说:“当时的承诺是,普拉博沃将为佐科维及其家族提供保护。”他用佐科维的昵称“佐科”指代这位前总统。“该承诺是否仍在履行尚不得而知,但我们可以从普拉博沃允许[吉布兰高中毕业证]案件继续推进这一事实中作出判断。”据印度尼西亚大学政治学讲师切普·希达亚特称,佐科维仍保有“非体制性选举资本”,包括其支持者网络,以及他与非议会政党印度尼西亚团结党的关联——该党由其幼子凯桑·潘加雷普领导。
“The commitment at the time was that Prabowo would provide protection for Jokowi and his family,” Made said, referring to Widodo’s nickname. “Whether that commitment is still being upheld is unknown, but we can judge from the [fact] that Prabowo is allowing the [Gibran high school diploma] case to continue.”According to Cecep Hidayat, a political science lecturer at the University of Indonesia, Widodo retains “non-institutional electoral capital”, including his supporter networks and his association with the non-parliamentary Indonesian Solidarity Party – headed by Kaesang Pangarep, his youngest son. “Jokowi’s political influence is declining, because when you’re outside the government, that power will gradually fade,” Cecep said.
“佐科维的政治影响力正在下降,因为当你不在政府中时,这种权力会逐渐消退,”塞塞普说。
Still, he warned that Prabowo’s “political legitimacy” could be affected if invoking the right of inquiry led to Gibran’s impeachment.
不过,他警告说,如果行使调查权导致吉布兰被弹劾,普拉博沃的“政治合法性”可能会受到影响。
“Gibran isn’t just a separately elected vice-president, he’s part of an elite compromise. Will Prabowo also be held politically accountable for Gibran’s nomination?”
“吉布兰不仅是一名单独当选的副总统,他还是精英妥协的一部分。普拉博沃是否也会因吉布兰的提名而承担政治责任?”塞塞普说。
Cecep said.
吉布兰被解职还可能导致公众质疑“2024年总统选举中当选政府的合法性”,他说。
Gibran’s dismissal could also lead the public to question “the legitimacy of the government elected in the 2024 presidential election”, he said.
马德表示,对吉布兰学历进行议会调查的提案是执政联盟内部政治姿态的工具,直接弹劾仍“不太可能”,以避免就其继任者产生“内斗”。
Made suggested that the proposal for a parliamentary inquiry into Gibran’s diploma was a tool for political posturing within the ruling coalition, and direct impeachment remained “unlikely” to avoid “infighting” over his replacement.
“目前,普拉博沃联盟中的各方正在博弈,互相把球踢来踢去,并进行政治讨价还价,以衡量他们能从中最大限度地获得什么好处,”马德说。
“Currently, the parties in Prabowo’s coalition are manoeuvring, throwing the ball to each other and doing political bargaining to gauge what advantages they can maximally gain [from the case],” Made said.
“我们是这一切中最大的受害者。这场政治游戏解决不了任何问题。它不能帮助我们走出危机,反而让危机更加严重。”
“We are the biggest victims of all of this. This political game doesn’t solve anything. It doesn’t help us get out of the crisis, it actually makes it worse.”