印尼副总统辞职风波加剧联盟紧张，普拉博沃面临更大风险Indonesian VP resignation drama raises stakes for Prabowo as alliances strain

The prospect of Gibran Rakabuming Raka stepping down as Indonesia’s vice-president has raised the stakes for President Prabowo Subianto, with analysts warning that his departure could trigger a scramble for power within the governing coalition and reshape the country’s political alliances.

While they differ over whether Gibran, the eldest son of former president Joko Widodo, genuinely wants to relinquish his position, observers say his dilemma reflects shifting political loyalties and the weakening influence of his father.

At a press conference on Tuesday in Jakarta, Minister of State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi announced that Prabowo had been informed of Gibran’s intention to resign during a morning meeting, although no formal resignation letter had been submitted.

Prasetyo later emphasised that Prabowo “had not rejected Gibran’s offer of resignation”.

The announcement followed rulings by Indonesia’s Constitutional Court and Supreme Court concerning Gibran’s secondary school qualifications. The Constitutional Court dismissed a challenge on procedural grounds despite finding insufficient evidence of his educational credentials, while the Supreme Court subsequently invalidated his diploma equivalency certificate.

On the same day, about 50 members of Indonesia’s 580-strong House of Representatives submitted a motion to exercise parliament’s right to express an opinion on Gibran’s qualifications, potentially paving the way for impeachment proceedings.

However, Gibran told the press gathered outside his official residence that Prabowo, “whom he regarded as his own father,” had urged him to “fight on” by appealing through the State Administrative Court.

However, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, the Coordinating Minister for Law, Human Rights, Immigration, and Correctional Institutions, pointed out that an appeal would be “futile.”

“The ruling by the Supreme Court is final and binding, against which there can be no appeal.”In the same vein, Syahganda Nainggolan, head of the Government Communication Agency, dismissed Gibran’s recollection of events.

“It’s almost unthinkable that the president would have advised Gibran to appeal against the court verdicts.”Rendy Pahrun Wadipalapa, a political scientist at the National Research and Innovation Agency, told This Week In Asia that Gibran’s reference to Prabowo as a paternal figure must be read within the Javanese cultural context.

“The line reads like a Javanese shadow play metaphor in which the language of kinship and deference says one thing in public, while the private defiance is the shrouded undertone.”Political commentator Lukas Luwarso believes that Gibran’s declaration might all be “smoke and mirrors” to gauge public reactions to his possible resignation.

“He seemed to be testing the waters, which means he still wants to cling on to his vice-presidency and won’t give it up without a fight.”Legal expert Herlambang Wiratraman stated that Gibran’s best course of action was to resign for the greater good of the nation.

“Otherwise, an impeachment process would further tax the administrative capacity of the state, at a trying time.”Lukas also warned that Gibran was risking “total humiliation” and “political suicide” if he dared to go down the impeachment route.

“He may find unwanted things crawling out of the woodwork during the process.”Marcus Mietzner, a political scientist at Canberra’s ANU and who has written a biography of Widodo, said Gibran faced a dilemma over his resignation.

“From Gibran’s standpoint, resigning would be an admission of guilt, while being impeached is also unpalatable.”Under Indonesia’s constitution, a vacancy in the vice-presidency would trigger a process to choose a replacement through the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), which comprises members of the House of Representatives (DPR) and Regional Representative Council (DPD).

The assembly would then convene to choose a new vice-president from the two candidates nominated by the president within 60 days.

According to Rendy, Gibran’s political arsenal “is pretty much spent”, rendering him “in no position to fight”.

“He rose on Jokowi’s patronage and Prabowo’s coalition arithmetic without a party base of his own; once those calculations shift, nothing anchors him,” he said, referring to Widodo by his popular nickname.

Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, agreed with Rendy’s assessment.

“Gibran’s political demise ties in with his father’s diminished influence in the wake of the wiretapping scandal due to his political proximity with Listyo Sigit.”Former police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo, known to be an ally of Widodo’s, was arrested on November 3 on suspicion of illegally wiretapping Prabowo and dozens of other prominent figures. Made said Widodo’s political stature had received two recent major blows.

“First, there’s the ongoing scandal concerning his own supposedly fake diploma.”On November 5, Widodo testified at the East Jakarta Court in two court cases with two different defendants, Roy Suryo and Tifauzia Tyassuma, charged with defamation against the former president for claiming that he had forged his university diploma and used it to nominate himself for public office.

“And there was the resignation of three cabinet members from the PSI party.”On November 9, Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni, Deputy Culture Minister Giring Ganesha and Deputy Minister of Population and Family Development Ratu Ayu Isyana Bagoes Oka resigned their respective positions from PSI, a political party headed by Widodo’s younger son, Kaesang Pangarep.

Since his retirement from office, Widodo has actively campaigned on behalf of PSI and publicly displayed his membership card on September 26.

Meanwhile, speculation is rife among analysts about whom Prabowo will nominate as candidates in the event of Gibran’s formal resignation from the race.

Rendy believes that there will be a “jostle” for the job among the elite of Prabowo’s seven-party coalition.

“Parties inside the governing coalition would have reason to bid for the post, and elites who accepted Gibran’s place on the old ticket might now press their own claims.”Political scientist Made argued that Prabowo’s first choice would be to consolidate his power after Gibran’s exit.

“His first instinct would be to reach out to figures outside his own party Gerindra, such as Puan or AHY.”Puan Maharani, a PDIP politician and Speaker of the House of Representatives, is the daughter of former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, chairperson of PDIP. AHY or Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, currently coordinating minister of infrastructure and regional development and chairman of Partai Demokrat, is the elder son of former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. When asked by reporters on Tuesday, Puan was cautiously guarded in her response.

“We will wait and see until there is an official announcement. Gibran is still the vice-president until then.”

“If [both Puan and AHY] turned down the offer, Prabowo would likely go inward by opting for junior figures from his party. Names such as Sugiono and Sudaryono have cropped up.”Both Sugiono and Sudaryono are known to be Prabowo’s protégés. Sugiono, 47, formerly the foreign minister, is now the coordinating minister for human development and cultural affairs. Sudaryono, 41, formerly deputy minister of agriculture, is the current chief of the National Nutrition Board, which governs Prabowo’s flagship Free Nutritious Meals programme.

Rendy noted that Gibran’s declaration of intent came at a time when the government faced lethargic economic indicators, worries over a possible stock market downgrade, falling public approval, and sustained public protests over its flagship programmes.

“The temptation to spin Gibran’s resignation into a short-lived distraction, with Gibran as the scapegoat, might be too great to resist.”However, Mietzner believes that removing Gibran as vice-president might not be advantageous to Prabowo.

“So why get rid of him and trigger a tense contest among his coalition parties about the vacancy?”