印度尼西亚副总统吉布兰于周四（11月12日）辞职，引发了关于他政治前途以及其离任对总统普拉博沃·苏比安托与前任总统佐科·维多多关系影响的疑问。
resignation as Indonesia's vice-president on Thursday (Nov 12) has raised questions about his political future and what his departure means for the relationship between President Prabowo Subianto and his predecessor Joko Widodo.
39岁的吉布兰在其学历资质面临越来越大压力之际辞职，此前最高法院于10月30日撤销了他的海外高中学历同等学力认证书。
Gibran, 39, stepped down amid mounting pressure over his educational qualifications after the Supreme Court annulled his overseas high school education equivalency certificate on Oct 30.
他的离任正值普拉博沃与佐科（前总统的通称）关系出现紧张迹象之际，佐科的支持对普拉博沃-吉布兰竞选组合在2024年大选中获胜起到了关键作用。
His departure comes amid signs of growing tensions between Prabowo and Jokowi, as the former president is popularly known, whose support was instrumental in securing the Prabowo-Gibran ticket's victory in the 2024 election.
分析人士表示，此次辞职可能让普拉博沃进一步巩固其影响力，同时对佐科及其家族的政治前途提出新的疑问。
Analysts say the resignation could let Prabowo further consolidate his influence while raising fresh questions about the political future of Jokowi and his family.
澳大利亚国立大学政治专家萨娜·贾弗里表示，普拉博沃与佐科的政治关系长期以来显示出正走向分裂的迹象。
Sana Jaffrey, a political expert from the Australian National University, said there had long been indications that the political relationship between Prabowo and Jokowi was heading towards a split.
贾弗里是澳大利亚国立大学政治与社会变迁系研究员，拥有逾15年研究印度尼西亚政治暴力的经验。她曾于2021年至2022年担任雅加达冲突政策分析研究所（IPAC）所长。
Jaffrey is a research fellow at ANU's Department of Political and Social Change and has more than 15 years of experience researching political violence in Indonesia. She previously served as director of the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) from 2021 to 2022.
她表示，周三120名议员发起针对吉布兰的弹劾程序，似乎增加了副总统辞职的压力，而非面对一个可能漫长且公开的程序。
She said the move on Wednesday by 120 lawmakers to initiate impeachment proceedings against Gibran appeared to have increased pressure on the vice-president to step aside rather than face a potentially lengthy and public process.
贾弗里在CNA节目《亚洲优先》中说：“从这个意义上说，普拉博沃在没有公开要求辞职、甚至看起来不像是这场行动背后推手的情况下，实现了这一分裂。”
“In that sense, Prabowo has achieved this split without publicly demanding a resignation or even looking like he's the one who was behind the move in the first place,” said Jaffrey on CNA’s Asia First programme.
当吉布兰在雅加达向人民协商会议（MPR）提交辞职信时，佐科在家乡梭罗告诉记者，尽管儿子离任，他将继续支持普拉博沃政府。
While Gibran submitted his resignation letter to the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) in Jakarta, Jokowi told reporters in his hometown Solo that he would continue backing Prabowo's government despite his son's departure.
“公职是暂时的。我们将继续支持普拉博沃政府，特别是那些服务于广大公众利益的项目，”他说。
“Public office is temporary. And we will continue to support Mr Prabowo's administration, especially regarding programmes that serve the interests of the broader public,” he said.
吉布兰·拉卡布明·拉卡在印尼雅加达离开办公室时向支持者挥手致意，此前他在2026年11月12日辞职。吉布兰辞职后会发生什么？
Gibran Rakabuming Raka greets supporters as he leaves his office in Jakarta, Indonesia, after resigning on Nov 12, 2026. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER GIBRAN'S RESIGNATION?
根据印尼的宪法程序，副总统向总统或人民协商会议（MPR）提交辞职通知后，总统必须向人民协商会议提名两名候选人，后者须在副总统职位正式出缺之日起60天内召开特别会议。
Under Indonesia's constitutional process, after the vice-president submits a resignation notice to the president or the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the president must nominate two candidates to the MPR, which must convene a special session within 60 days of the vice-presidential position officially becoming vacant.
在人民协商会议成员中获得多数票的候选人将被任命，任职至本届任期结束。
The candidate who secures a majority vote among MPR members is appointed to serve the remainder of the term.
印尼大学政治学讲师阿迪蒂亚·佩尔达纳表示，选出新副总统可能在普拉博沃执政联盟的政党间引发新一轮政治讨价还价。
Aditya Perdana, a political lecturer at the University of Indonesia, said selecting a new vice-president could open another round of political bargaining among parties in Prabowo's governing coalition.
“政党会直接同意普拉博沃提名的任何人吗？他们会只听从他的指示，还是也想插手？”阿迪蒂亚问道。
“Would the political parties simply agree to whoever Prabowo proposes? Would they just follow his instructions, or would they want to have a say too?”Aditya asked.
因此，这一过程可能考验普拉博沃维持其联盟团结的能力，同时也能强化其政府的政治地位。
The process could therefore test Prabowo's ability to maintain unity within his coalition while strengthening his administration's political position.
贾弗里指出，来自所有八个议会派系的议员都支持弹劾提案，她认为这是总统对政治建制派拥有相当大影响力的迹象。
Jaffrey noted that lawmakers from all eight parliamentary factions had supported the impeachment proposal, which she saw as a sign of the president's considerable influence over the political establishment.
她、阿迪蒂亚以及加查马达大学政治专家瓦万·马斯乌迪还建议，普拉博沃可以通过引入斗争民主党（PDI-P）来扩大其议会支持基础，该党一直未加入其执政联盟。
She, Aditya, and political expert Wawan Mas’udi from Gadjah Mada University also suggested that Prabowo could broaden his parliamentary support by bringing in the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which has remained outside his governing coalition.
由前总统梅加瓦蒂·苏加诺普特里领导的斗争民主党是议会最大党，也是吉布兰在2024年决定与普拉博沃搭档参选前所属的政党，此举违背了斗争民主党的总副搭档安排。
Chaired by former President Megawati Soekarnoputri, PDI-P is the largest party in parliament and was the party Gibran belonged to before he decided to run with Prabowo in 2024, going against PDI-P’s pair.
分析人士表示，该党反对吉布兰当选副总统，一直是使其与政府关系复杂化的问题之一。
Analysts said the party's opposition to Gibran's selection as vice-president had been one of the issues complicating its relationship with the administration.
“梅加瓦蒂和普拉博沃（2024年大选后）见过几次面，看来印斗党想加入（普拉博沃阵营），但因吉布兰的存在而犹豫不决，”瓦万说。但普拉博沃最终也可能任命一位政界外人士，以让各方都满意。
“Megawati and Prabowo have met a few times (after the 2024 election), and it seems that PDI-P wants to join (Prabowo’s camp) but was reluctant due to the presence of Gibran,” said Wawan. But Prabowo could ultimately also appoint someone outside the political sphere to keep all parties happy.
“例如，鉴于国家面临经济挑战，普拉博沃可以任命一位具有深厚经济背景的技术官僚，”印度尼西亚战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）政治专家尼基·法赫里扎尔说。
“For example, since the country is facing economic challenges Prabowo could appoint a technocrat with a strong economic background,” said Nicky Fahrizal, a political expert from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Indonesia.
2026年11月12日，印度尼西亚副总统吉布兰·拉卡布明·拉卡（左）向人民协商会议议长艾哈迈德·穆扎尼递交辞呈。（图片：印度尼西亚人民协商会议）吉布兰的政治生涯结束了吗？
Indonesian Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka (left) hands over his resignation letter to the Speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly, Ahmad Muzani on Nov 12, 2026. (Photo: Indonesia's People's Consultative Assembly) IS GIBRAN'S POLITICAL CAREER OVER?
虽然吉布兰的辞职标志着其副总统任期突然终结，但分析人士对其可能对他的政治生涯造成多大持久损害看法不一。
While Gibran's resignation marks an abrupt end to his vice-presidency, analysts are divided over how much lasting damage it could do to his political career.
加查马达大学的瓦万表示，主动辞职可能比遭弹劾免职更能让吉布兰保留政治合法性。
Wawan from Gadjah Mada University said stepping down voluntarily could allow Gibran to preserve more of his political legitimacy than if he had been removed through impeachment.
这一决定可被呈现为承担政治责任的举动，有望为他在2029年或2034年大选中东山再起留有余地。
Such a decision could be presented as an act of political responsibility, potentially leaving the door open for a comeback in the 2029 or 2034 elections.
“他的政治合法性不会完全被摧毁，未来他可以重建，”瓦万对CNA表示，并补充说，如果吉布兰被弹劾，他在政治上恢复将困难得多。
“His political legitimacy will not be completely destroyed, and he can rebuild it in the future,” Wawan told CNA, adding that if Gibran had been impeached, it would be much harder for him to recover politically.
贾弗里对吉布兰的前景则更为谨慎，指出围绕其副总统资格的争议以及要求他辞职的公众示威。
Jaffrey was more cautious about Gibran's prospects, pointing to controversies over his eligibility for the vice-presidency and public demonstrations demanding his resignation.
她指出，反对吉布兰的声音来自多方，包括也曾批评其父亲的伊斯兰主义团体。
She noted that opposition to Gibran had emerged from several quarters, including Islamist groups that had also been critical of his father.
尽管如此，她表示佐科维仍在印尼社会的重要群体中享有支持，因此断言吉布兰的政治前途已尽为时过早。“很难说这是否意味着他的职业生涯结束了，”她说。
Nevertheless, she said Jokowi still enjoyed support among significant sections of Indonesian society, making it premature to write off Gibran's political future. "It's hard to say if this is the end of his career," she said.
阿迪亚同样警告，不要假设吉布兰的离开会终结佐科维的政治野心。
Aditya similarly cautioned against assuming Gibran's departure would end Jokowi's political ambitions.
“我依然相信政治斗争将继续。我不认为在佐科维的政治算计中存在所谓的‘句号’，”阿迪亚对CNA表示。
"I still believe that the political struggle will continue. I don't think there is such a thing as a full stop in Jokowi's political calculations," Aditya told CNA.
“佐科维是一位聪明且富有战略眼光的政治行动者。”来自CSIS的尼基表示，吉布兰甚至可以参加当地称为“C套餐”的高中同等学力教育项目，这将为他在2029年再次参选铺平道路。
"Jokowi is a smart and strategic political actor." Nicky from CSIS said Gibran could even enrol in a Senior High School Equivalency Programme, known locally as the C Package, which would pave the way for him to run again in 2029.
“归根结底，佐科维正试图通过吉布兰、印尼团结党（PSI）主席的次子凯桑，以及现任北苏门答腊省长博比来捍卫他的政治王朝，”尼基说。
"At the end of the day, Jokowi is trying to safeguard his political dynasty through Gibran, Kaesang in PSI, and Bobby, who is now the governor of North Sumatra," said Nicky.
佐科维作为由其幼子凯桑·潘加雷普领导的印尼团结党（PSI）成员，依然在政治上保持活跃。博比·纳苏蒂安是他的女婿。
Jokowi remains politically active as a member of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), led by his younger son, Kaesang Pangarep. Bobby Nasution is his son-in-law.
普拉博沃与佐科维之间的裂痕加深？分析人士表示，自普拉博沃于2024年10月就职以来，他与佐科维的关系变得日益复杂。
A DEEPENING RIFT BETWEEN PRABOWO AND JOKOWI? Analysts say the relationship between Prabowo and Jokowi has become increasingly complicated since the former took office in October 2024.
佐科维的背书对普拉博沃的大选胜利至关重要，而吉布兰作为竞选搭档的存在，确保了前总统家族在国家政治中保有显要地位。但贾弗里表示，关于这一联盟持久性的疑问自始至终就存在。
Jokowi's endorsement was crucial to Prabowo's electoral victory, while Gibran's presence on the ticket ensured that the former president's family retained a prominent place in national politics. But Jaffrey said questions about the durability of their alliance had existed from the outset.
她指出，先前曾发生内阁改组，被视为佐科维忠诚者的部长被撤换，此外围绕吉布兰学历资格的争议也持续不断。
She pointed to previous Cabinet reshuffles in which ministers regarded as Jokowi loyalists were removed, as well as the continuing controversy surrounding Gibran's educational qualifications.
一起涉及前国家警察总长利斯蒂约·西吉特·普拉博沃的涉嫌窃听案，因其与佐科维长期存在关联而也引发了关注，该前警察总长因涉嫌与此案有关于上周被捕。然而，尚未出现任何证据将乔科威与所谓的窃听联系起来。
An alleged wiretapping case involving former police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo, who was arrested last week in connection with the case, has also attracted attention because of his longstanding ties to Jokowi. However, no evidence has emerged linking Jokowi to the alleged wiretapping.
贾弗里表示，这些事态表明，两大政治阵营之间的紧张关系是随着时间逐步累积的，尽管吉布兰辞职的直接因素仍不明朗。
Jaffrey said these developments suggested that tensions between the two political camps had been building over time, although the immediate factors behind Gibran's resignation remained unclear.
尼基持相似观点，甚至暗示吉布兰的辞职标志着普拉博沃-乔科威联盟的终结。
Nicky shared similar views and even suggested that Gibran’s resignation marked the end of Prabowo-Jokowi’s alliance.
他补充说，普拉博沃现在显然占据上风。作为总统、格林德拉党领袖以及执政联盟的主导人物，普拉博沃拥有制度优势。与此同时，阿迪亚认为，这些事态是普拉博沃与乔科威之间更广泛的政治博弈的一部分，涉及前总统在不妨碍普拉博沃通过2029年巩固其政府的情况下，能够保留多少影响力。
He added that Prabowo now clearly has the upper hand. As president, leader of the Gerindra Party, and a dominant figure in the governing coalition, Prabowo holds the institutional advantage Meanwhile, Aditya viewed the developments as part of broader political bargaining between Prabowo and Jokowi over how much influence the former president could retain without complicating Prabowo's efforts to consolidate his administration through 2029.
不过，分析人士警告不要将吉布兰的离职解读为乔科威失去所有政治筹码的证据。
Still, analysts cautioned against interpreting Gibran's departure as evidence that Jokowi had lost all political leverage.
多名印尼青年党（PSI）人物于周一辞去党职，进一步引发对前总统政治网络实力的质疑。
Several PSI figures resigned from the party on Monday, adding to questions about the strength of the former president's political network.
尼基称，部分离职可能反映个别政治人物为保住政府职位所作的努力，而瓦旺则认为这些离职可能出于政治务实，而非忠诚度的根本性重组。两人均未将离职视为乔科威政治网络正在崩塌的决定性证据。
Nicky said that some departures could reflect individual politicians' efforts to protect their government positions, while Wawan saw them as potentially driven by political pragmatism rather than a fundamental realignment of loyalties. Neither considered the resignations conclusive evidence that Jokowi's political network was collapsing.
瓦旺表示，吉布兰的辞职决定也可能表明，两大政治阵营已就普拉博沃与乔科威之间的新政治安排进行讨论。“该安排的具体内容只能随着事态发展而逐步了解，”瓦旺说。
Wawan said Gibran's decision to resign could also suggest the two political camps had discussed a new political settlement between Prabowo and Jokowi. “What that settlement entails is something we can only understand as events unfold,” said Wawan.
乔科·维多多（右）于2019年7月13日在印尼雅加达火车站与普拉博沃·苏比安托（左）握手。普拉博沃是否可能以更大影响力出现？
Joko Widodo (right) shakes hands with Prabowo Subianto (left) during their meeting at a train station in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Jul 13, 2019. COULD PRABOWO EMERGE WITH GREATER INFLUENCE?
除了对佐科维家族的影响外，分析人士表示，吉布兰的辞职引发了关于普拉博沃治下政治权力集中的更广泛问题。
Beyond the implications for Jokowi's family, analysts said Gibran's resignation raises broader questions about the concentration of political power under Prabowo.
贾弗里表示，来自所有八个议会派系的议员都参与了弹劾提案，这一点尤为重要。
Jaffrey said the participation of lawmakers from all eight parliamentary factions in the impeachment proposal was particularly significant.
她将这些事态发展与据报印尼警方领导层的变动以及可能进一步进行的军方人事调整联系起来，她认为这些是巩固机构权力的努力的迹象。“可以看出，正在试图巩固机构权力，”她说。
She linked the developments to reported changes in Indonesia's police leadership and the possibility of further military reshuffles, which she viewed as signs of efforts to consolidate institutional power. “You can see that there is an attempt to consolidate institutional power,” she said.
不过，她警告说，更强的政治控制不一定会带来更有效的治理，而吉布兰的离职也不会解决根本问题。
However, she cautioned that stronger political control would not necessarily lead to more effective governance, and that Gibran's departure would not resolve the underlying problems.
随着吉布兰辞职的直接政治后果变得更加清晰，分析人士表示，普拉博沃与佐科维之间的权力博弈远未尘埃落定。
As the immediate political consequences of Gibran's resignation become clearer, analysts said the power play between Prabowo and Jokowi remains far from settled.
“辞职是为了重整旗鼓、重新制定战略而暂停，”来自国际战略研究中心（CSIS）的尼基说。“但真正的博弈远未结束。”
“The resignation is a pause to regroup and restrategise," said Nicky from CSIS. "But the real game is far from over."