
民主党在中期选举中遭遇历史性惨败,却为州检察长带来了一份特别的“惊喜大礼包”。民主党不仅夺下了五个由共和党把持的州检察长席位,增强了该党在即将到来的关于人工智能、投票权、能源、医疗保健和企业权力等法律与政策斗争中的筹码——他们还意外拿下了全美最具权力的检察长办公室之一,在德克萨斯州取得胜利。
The Democratic Party’s historic midterm rout came with a special bonus for state attorneys general. Not only did Democrats capture five Republican-held state AG offices, strengthening the party’s hand in legal and policy battles to come over AI, voting rights, energy, health care and corporate power — they unexpectedly seized one of the most powerful AG offices in the country by winning in Texas.
“我们砍下了蛇头,”民主党州检察长协会(DAGA)主席肖恩·兰金在接受采访时表示。
“We took the head of the snake,” Sean Rankin, president of the Democratic Attorneys General Association, said in an interview.
即将卸任的德州检察长、文化战士肯·帕克森曾利用该职位,激进地挑战从环境法规、同性恋和跨性别者权利,到乔·拜登2020年在摇摆州胜选认证的方方面面。德州检察长办公室长期以来还通过诉讼渠道,借助保守派主导的美国第五巡回上诉法院,对民主党总统的优先议程发起挑战。
Soon-to-be-former Texas attorney general and culture warrior Ken Paxton had used the office to aggressively challenge everything from environmental regulations and gay and transgender rights to the certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 win in battleground states. The Texas AG’s office has also long used the litigation pipeline to the conservative Fifth Circuit U.S. court of appeals to challenge Democratic presidents’ priorities.
兰金说:“如果共和党州检察长失去了德州这个‘先锋’,他们在全国层面的参与方式将不得不改变。‘德州不再站在对立面,这改变了游戏规则。’” 这位深耕民主党运作多年、掌舵DAGA十年的资深操盘手,是多年招募和支持检察长候选人的核心人物。这些候选人最终在明尼苏达州和密歇根州成功守住苦战席位,并在德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州和佐治亚州实现反超。
“There will be a change in how the Republican attorneys general have to engage nationally if they do not have Texas at the front,” Rankin said. “Having Texas not on the other side, that's a game changer.”Rankin, a longtime Democratic operative who’s run DAGA for a decade, was at the heart of a multi-year effort to recruit and support the AG candidates who ultimately defended hard-fought seats in Minnesota and Michigan and flipped them in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Georgia, where rising star Tanya Miller could turn the office into a major regional presence.
其中,冉冉升起的新星塔尼娅·米勒有望将佐治亚州检察长办公室打造成为一个主要的区域性力量。在捐赠者向DAGA今年的竞选注资近5800万美元后,民主党将控制至少29个州检察长办公室,外加哥伦比亚特区;如果民主党人乔纳森·克雷斯-汤金斯在阿拉斯加州长选举中获胜——阿拉斯加是少数由州长任命检察长的州之一——预计还将再增一席。
After donors put nearly $58 million into DAGA’s push this year, Democrats will control at least 29 state AG offices, plus the District of Columbia; and if Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins the governorship in Alaska, one of a handful of states where AGs are appointed, expect one more.
兰金接受了《政治》杂志采访,谈到这些胜利对2028年意味着什么、得克萨斯州发生的巨变、数据中心问题的复杂性,以及他如何看待“那个溜走的席位”——当时佛罗里达州共和党新星詹姆斯·乌特迈尔在一场势均力敌的州总检察长竞选中获胜,成为当晚共和党少有的亮点。
Rankin spoke with POLITICO Magazine about what those wins mean for 2028, the sea change in Texas, the complexity of the data center issue and how he views “the one that slipped away,” when hotshot Florida Republican James Uthmeier won a tight state AG race in the rare GOP bright spot of the night.
民主党拿下了你们想要拿下的所有总检察长席位——除了佛罗里达州——而且你们还守住了密歇根等一些你们需要守住的更胶着的席位。你认为除了更广泛的“浪潮”态势之外,还有什么对你们奏效?
Democrats picked up all the AG seats you wanted to pick up — except Florida — and you held some of the tighter seats, like Michigan, that that you needed to hold. What do you think worked for you beyond the broader “wave” dynamic?
嗯,民主党总检察长在各方面都大获全胜。在目标州对我们真正有效的是,我们掌控了自己有权管理的事情。我们的竞选活动组织得非常好。我们的筹款很强劲。这既体现在竞选层面,也体现在委员会这边。这是我们史上最大的筹款总额。目前仍在继续。接下来60天里还会有资金源源不断地进来。
Well, Democratic AGs won big across the board. What worked really well for us in our target states is that we controlled the things that we had the power to manage. We had very well-run campaigns. We had strong fundraising. That's both at the campaign level and here on the committee. This was our biggest fundraising haul ever. It's still continuing. We still have funds rolling in and will for the next 60 days.
因此我们能够调配资源,确保先投资于我们的防守州,然后再投资于我们的扩张州。每当我们看到新情况时,我们都会认真评估是否准备好介入,我认为我们在这方面很审慎。我认为这确实是我们这个周期的一大收获:我们在整合力量方面非常谨慎、深思熟虑,很早就与候选人合作,推动他们行动起来。然后,正因为我们做好了本职工作,当形势告诉我们还有更多州可以争取时,我们才有余地去抓住机会。
So we were able to deploy resources and make sure that we were investing in our protection states first, and then our expansion states. Every time we saw something new, we really evaluated if we were ready to move in, and I think we were judicious in it. I think that's really the takeaway from this cycle for us, is that we were very careful and thoughtful about getting things together, working with candidates quite early to get them moving. And then because we had done our jobs, it gave us the room to be opportunistic when the landscape told us that we had additional states.
我们一开始有七个州,我们确实全力投入这七个州。不知不觉就扩大到了八个。又扩大到了12个,而我们在那12个州都具有竞争力。以不到两个百分点的差距溜走的那个是佛罗里达州,但那是一场竞争非常激烈的选举,何塞·哈维尔·罗德里格斯的表现超过了选票上其他民主党人。
We started out with seven states, and we were truly committed to those seven. Expanded to eight before we knew it. Expanded to 12, and we were competitive in those 12. The one that slipped away just by less than two points was Florida, but it was a very competitive race, and José Javier Rodríguez overperformed the rest of the ticket.
好,关于这些内容还有两个后续问题,先从你们早期与候选人合作的工作谈起。对总检察长候选人来说,候选人招募流程是什么样的?
OK, two follow-up questions on those pieces, starting with the early work you did with the candidates. What does the candidate recruitment process look like for AGs?
让我帮你展望一下:我们与宾夕法尼亚州的潜在候选人已经谈了六个月到一年,所以我们已经在确保我们在27年和28年具有竞争力。虽然我们昨晚可能刚经历了一场选举,但我们每年都有选举,所以我们必须很快着眼于下一步。
Let me help you to look ahead: We've been speaking with potential candidates running for election in Pennsylvania for six months to a year, so we are already making sure that we're going to be competitive in ‘27 and ‘28. While we may have had an election last night, we have elections every year, so we have to be looking to what's next very quickly.
我想我认识艾奥瓦州的内特·威廉姆斯差不多快两年了。至于堪萨斯州的克里斯·曼,显然他四年前就参选过。2022年的选情格局非常不同,堪萨斯州当时超出了我们的能力范围,但我们在18个月前坐下来谈过。我说:“我真的很希望你参选。在堪萨斯州我完全支持你。我希望你赢,为了你,也为了堪萨斯州。我认为我们能成功,因为对阵(现任堪萨斯州总检察长)克里斯·科巴赫的基本面太有利了,尤其是我们还顺风顺水。”
I think I met Nate Willems [of Iowa] nearly two years ago. I think when it came to Chris Mann [of Kansas], obviously he had run four years ago. It was a very different map in 2022, and Kansas was just beyond our reach, but we sat down 18 months ago and talked. And I said, “I really want you to run. I'm completely behind you in Kansas. I want this for you, for the state of Kansas. I think we can get there because the underlying fundamentals of running against [current Kansas AG] Kris Kobach were so attractive, especially with the wind at our back.”
我们很早就说过,这就是我们需要建立的东西,而他是与我们共同建立这一切的绝佳伙伴。
We said quite early, this is what we need to build, and he was a great partner in building that with us.
有没有哪些州你们认为是胜算渺茫的翻盘目标、曾经考虑过,但出于审慎的考虑决定放弃?
Were there any states that you thought were long-shot pickups that you considered, and then, in the spirit of judiciousness, you decided against?
我认为部分原因在于时机。到最后,最有限的资源是时间,而不是金钱。我们当时有资金进来。我们没有时间把一切都扭转过来。比如在佛罗里达州,佛罗里达几乎是 overnight 就建起来了。我希望我在佛罗里达能有更长一点的时间。说实话,我真希望我在得克萨斯和俄亥俄能有更长一点的时间,光是看到形势在如何变化、态势在如何改善。我们不得不在信息不完整、没有我们想要的那么多资源、当然也没有充足时间的情况下做出决定。
I think part of it was timing. At the end, the most finite resource is time, not money. We had money that was coming in. We didn't have time to turn everything around. In Florida, for example, Florida got built almost overnight. I wish I would have had a little bit longer with Florida. I wish I would have actually had a little bit longer with Texas and Ohio, quite frankly, just seeing how things were changing and the dynamics were improving. We have to make decisions based upon incomplete information, not all the resources we'd like, and certainly not all the time.
这也得益于我们有优秀的候选人。来自佐治亚州的坦娅·米勒是个明星,对吧?她本人和在视频里一样充满活力,非常出色。她一定会干得非常漂亮,重整那个办公室,为选民带来改变。
It also helps we have great candidates. Tanya Miller [from Georgia] is a star, right? She is every bit as dynamic in person as she seems when she's on video, she's incredible. She's going to do a fantastic job of resetting that office and making a difference for constituents.
关于得克萨斯州,我要说:我们打掉了蛇头。所以从根本上说,如果共和党总检察长们没有了得克萨斯州打头阵,他们在全国层面的参与方式将发生改变。这是一个了不起且值得注意的变化,人们应当理解这一点,因为在我看来,得克萨斯州在针对许多我所关心、总检察长们为之奋斗、我们相信美国人民支持的问题所采取的行动中,扮演了过大的角色——让得克萨斯州不再站在对立面,这会彻底改变局面。你能举例说明这会如何发展吗?
And I'll say this on Texas, we took the head of the snake. So fundamentally, there will be a change in how the Republican attorneys general have to engage nationally if they do not have Texas at the front. That is a fantastic and noteworthy change that people should understand, because Texas has played an outsized role in the actions taken, in my opinion, against many of the issues that I care about, that the AGs fight for, that we believe the American people support — having Texas not on the other side, that's a game changer. Can you give an example of how that could play out?
这样吧。2020年,在选举保护问题上,正是肯·帕克斯顿在推动这项努力,想让最高法院推翻我们四个州、也就是摇摆州的总统选举结果。
Well, how about this? In 2020, when it came to election protection, it was Ken Paxton who was pushing this effort to get the Supreme Court to overturn the presidential election results in four of our states, in the battleground states.
但展望2028年,我认为如今除宾夕法尼亚州这一个例外,民主党总检察长已遍布所有摇摆州,我们可以保证总统选举将自由、公正和安全。
But as we look ahead to 2028, the fact that Democratic attorneys general are in, I believe, all but one now of the battleground states, with Pennsylvania being the outlier, we can guarantee that there will be free, fair and secure elections in the presidential contest.
这很重要,而且我们在得克萨斯州拿下总检察长之位,意味着对方将没有资源去发动一场我们认为违背法治、站不住脚的攻势——正因如此,帕克斯顿的诉讼才被驳回。但那个办公室掌握着大量资源,让这个办公室归我们所有,意味着它将被公平地管理。它不会被政治化地管理。它会做好本职工作,照顾好得克萨斯州的选民。这就是变化。
That matters, and the fact that we have the AG's spot in Texas means that the other side will not have the resources to wage a campaign, which we felt was outside of the rule of law and did not stand up, which is why Paxton's suit was thrown out. But that's a lot of resources in that office, and to have that office come to us means that it will be managed fairly. It will not be managed politically. It will do its job and it will take care of the constituents in Texas. And that's a change.
这场选举是否会以某种方式改变联盟格局,无论是民主党和共和党总检察长联盟,还是有时联合起来的跨党派联盟?
Are there ways this election changes sort of the coalition dynamics, whether it's the Democratic and Republican AG coalitions or the bipartisan coalitions that come together sometimes?
2018年,我们有12位新总检察长从那次选举中进入这一行列。这一次我们有10位,然后取决于阿拉斯加的情况以及那里的核实结果——阿拉斯加的总检察长由州长任命——我们可能会有11位新的民主党总检察长。
In 2018 we had 12 new AGs that came into the room from that election. This time we have 10, and then depending upon what happens with Alaska and this verification there — the AG in Alaska is appointed by the governor — we could have 11 new Democratic attorneys general.
我们会怀念一些即将离开的人。我对亚伦·福特昨晚赢得内华达州州长职位感到非常兴奋,还有科罗拉多州的菲尔·韦泽,以及加利福尼亚州的[前加州总检察长]泽维尔·贝塞拉。三位近期的民主党总检察长,这使得我们在很短的时间内看到九位走上州长之位。所以我们确实看到党的后备人才梯队正在建立,并通过我们现有的领导层得到锻炼。这是检验你是否有能力竞选另一个职位并在全国范围内崭露头角的试验场。
We're going to miss some people who are moving on. I'm very excited about Aaron Ford winning the governorship in Nevada last night, and Phil Weiser in Colorado, as well as [former California AG] Xavier Becerra in California. Three recent Democratic attorneys general, that puts nine that we've seen go up to the governor's table in a very short period of time. So we're really seeing the bench of the party being built out and worked through the leadership that we've got. This is a proving ground for your ability to run for a different office and to become prominent nationally.
你一直看到总检察长们在一个问题上大做文章——在一定程度上两党都是如此——那就是人工智能、数据中心以及围绕它们的一切。这些问题在佐治亚州和得克萨斯州显然是重大问题。你如何看待这批新人对这些问题的处理,这些问题引起了许多选民的共鸣?
One issue you’ve been seeing AGs make a lot of noise on — to a certain extent in both parties — is AI, data centers and everything that surrounds them. Those were big issues obviously in Georgia and Texas. How do you see this new class tackling those issues, which were so resonant with a lot of voters?
我认为数据中心是棘手的问题。一方面,你看到[经济]发展。另一方面,我们都在使用需要更多算力的工具,但接下来的问题是,这在某个特定州的当地环境中究竟如何运作?冷却需要多少水,管理它需要多少能源,以及谁来为此买单?
I think data centers are tough issues. On the one hand, you see [economic] development. On the other hand, we’re all using tools that are requiring more computing power, but then the question is, how does that actually work in a particular state in a local environment? What's the water need coolant, what's the energy need for managing that, and who pays for it?
我认为,达娜·内塞尔在密歇根州推动这项工作方面一直处于前沿。我认为透明度非常必要,而且我认为,只要事情真正在阳光下、在光天化日之下进行,总检察长就更容易与企业合作伙伴合作,因为我们确实相信他们在社区中提供就业方面所发挥的作用。未来几年,这些问题将会很复杂。我认为,无论总检察长是民主党人还是共和党人,实际上都会公正地审视解决这些问题的办法。
I think Dana Nessel has been at the forefront of pushing on this in Michigan. I think the transparency is very much needed, and I think as long as things are actually happening in sunlight with the light of day, I think it's a lot easier for AGs to work with corporate partners, because we do believe in the role that they play in the community in providing jobs. These are going to be complicated issues for the next few years. I think that there will be a fair look at solving these problems by attorneys general, whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, in fact.
那么,在进入选举之夜时,您最大的担忧是什么?您担心经过如此精心策划的竞选之后,会出什么问题?
So as you headed into election night, what were your biggest fears? What were you worried could go wrong after such a carefully thought-out campaign?
嗯,就是我们错了——我们做出的假设根本就是错的。人们谈论归咎于民调。我对民调的经验是,它实际上只是基于你所做的假设。它并不真正基于数学。
Well, that we were wrong — that the assumptions we made were just simply wrong. People talk about blaming polling. My experience with polling is it's really just based upon the assumptions you make. It's not really based upon math.
德州呢?我没想到德州会出现那样的结果。从某种意义上说,最大的挑战是数字是否真的会那么好?如果数字那么好,我的数学是否应该改变?我的地图是否应该比实际情况更动态地改变?我想,我最大的担忧会是:如果结果像大家认为的那样好,我是否因为没有足够大胆而错失了什么?
What about Texas? I didn't think we were going to have an outcome in Texas that looked like that. In some ways, the biggest challenge was were the numbers really going to be that good? And if they did, should my math have changed? Should my map have changed even more dynamically than it did. I guess my biggest fear would have been if it's going to be as good as everybody thinks it is, am I leaving something on the table because I didn't stretch far enough?
今天,我看着佛罗里达州说:“我不知道,多花一百万美元在佛罗里达州是否会带来改变?”很难说,那是一个那么大的州。但是,我是否真的需要在一个州花费X,而本可以在另一个州花费2X,从而帮助我们走得更远?我认为这是最大的挑战。
Today, I look at Florida and I say, “I don't know, would an extra million dollars have made a difference in Florida?”It's hard to tell, a state that big. But did I really need to spend X in one state when I could have spent 2X in another state to help us get that much further? I think that's the biggest challenge.
过去10年或过去几个选举周期中,是否有什么事情影响了您刚才描述的策略?之前是否有错误、出过什么问题,影响了您这次的做法?
Was there anything from the last 10 years or the last several cycles that informed the strategy that you just described? Were there mistakes, things that went wrong before, that informed the way you went about it this time?
是啊。2022年,拜登中期选举时逆风,形势非常艰难,我们的筹款也没有取得成功。我们取得了成功,但没有达到这种筹款成功的水平。我们有七位在任者需要保住,选举形势对我们来说很不利。我们在爱荷华州以大约两万票的差距落败。最终我们以280票的优势拿下亚利桑那州。我们拼尽全力,确保自己能够守住阵地。那不是一段愉快的时光。
Yeah. So in in 2022, when the wind was against us in the Biden midterm, it was damn hard, and we did not have the fundraising success. We were successful, but not having this level of fundraising success. And we had seven incumbents to protect, and it was a tough map for us. We lost Iowa by about 20,000 votes. We ended up picking up Arizona by 280 votes. We fought like hell to make sure that we could actually stay in place. That was not a happy moment.
那个选举周期结束时,我们审视了一下,坦率地说,我们所有的候选人都没有做好充分准备。我们需要确保自己确实有一个计划。我们做好了工作,因此到了去年11月,我们已经相当有战斗力。我们知道自己在做什么。这都是因为2022年的挑战。我不想再像四年前选举后那样感觉。你知道,那个周期,糟透了。
At the end of that cycle, we looked at it and said, honestly, all of our candidates were not as prepared as they needed to be. We need to make sure that we actually have a plan. We did the work, so by the time we rolled into November of last year, we were fairly formidable. We knew what we were doing. And it was because of the challenges in 2022. I did not want to feel the same way I did four years ago after the election. You know, in that cycle, that sucked.