蒂塞特观点 南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨本周在华盛顿结识了一些有用的新朋友。不幸的是，这些朋友无法解决他面临的两个紧迫问题。
Tiisetso’s view South African President Cyril Ramaphosa acquired some useful new friends in Washington this week. Unfortunately for him, they cannot solve either of his immediate problems.
第一个问题在国内。曾经由纳尔逊·曼德拉主导的非国大，在地方政府选举中遭遇重创，这威胁到拉马福萨，因为非国大2027年的领导层竞选即将到来。
The first is at home. The African National Congress, the once dominant party of Nelson Mandela, is taking a drubbing in the local government elections, threatening Ramaphosa as the ANC’s 2027 leadership contest approaches.
在超过三分之二的选票计票后，一家受人尊敬的选举建模机构预测，非国大的得票率约为32%。这使其有望创下最差的市政选举成绩，并鼓舞了那些认为拉马福萨总统任期的中间派政治公式无法赢得选民的人。
With more than two-thirds of the vote counted, a respected election modeling outfit projects the ANC at around 32%. This puts it on course for its worst-ever municipal performance and emboldens those arguing that the centrist political formula of Ramaphosa’s presidency is not winning over voters.
他的第二个问题在于白宫，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普一直在就从种族政策到外交政策选择的各个方面对比勒陀利亚发动运动，并现在将一项优惠贸易计划——非洲增长与机会法案——列入了削减名单。
His second problem sits in the White House, where US President Donald Trump has waged a campaign against Pretoria over everything from race policies to its foreign policy choices, and has now put a preferential trade program, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, on the chopping block.
尽管如此，拉马福萨认为出现了转机，他说，在民主党夺得国会两院控制权后，他预测将出现“世界关系的新时代”。众议院筹款委员会的高级民主党人理查德·尼尔批评将南非排除在AGOA之外是“基于怨恨”，而众议院外交政策方面的民主党高级人士格雷戈里·米克斯和珍妮·沙欣警告说，这一举动可能会让中国获得战略优势。
That said, Ramaphosa sees an opening, saying he predicted a “new era in world relations,” after Democrats captured both houses of Congress. Richard Neal, a top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, slammed the ejection of South Africa from AGOA as “grounded in grievance,” while Gregory Meeks and Jeanne Shaheen, the party’s senior voices on foreign policy in the House, warned the move could hand China a strategic advantage.
问题是，一个被削弱的特朗普可能更倾向于针对南非——这个遥远的国家，其后种族隔离时代的种族政治可以被重新包装以适应美国自身的文化战争，而拉马福萨在国内的政治权威正在萎缩。
The catch is that a weakened Trump may be a Trump more inclined to target South Africa — a distant country whose post-apartheid racial politics can be repackaged to fit America’s own culture wars just as Ramaphosa’s political authority is shrinking at home.
值得关注 非国大（ANC）在南非竞争激烈的地方选举中很可能会流失选票，此次投票季节以激烈的竞选活动为特征。
Notable The African National Congress (ANC) looks likely to hemorrhage votes in South Africa’s highly contested local elections, after a voting season marked by intense campaigns.