约翰内斯堡讯——分析人士称，南非人对非洲人国民大会（ANC）在地方选举中的全面痛击是对效忠而非政绩的投票，标志着这个前解放运动不再能一言九鼎的政治转变。
JOHANNESBURG, Nov 9 - South Africans' sweeping rebuke of the African National Congress in local elections was a vote for performance over loyalty, analysts said, marking a political shift in which the former liberation movement can no longer call the shots.
非国大因腐败丑闻和未能提供核心公共服务而广受批评，在11月4日的投票中获得了不到三分之一的选票。对于这个三十年前在纳尔逊·曼德拉领导下带领国家走出种族隔离制度的政党来说，这是其历史上迄今最差的结果。
The ANC, widely criticised for corruption scandals and failing to deliver core public services, won less than a third of votes in the November 4 poll. It was by far the worst result in history for the party that led the country out of apartheid under Nelson Mandela three decades ago.
这场选举加深了南非的政治碎片化，并将权力向长期占主导地位的非国大的对手们转移，其影响超出了地方政府。
The election has deepened South Africa's political fragmentation and shifted power towards rivals of the long-dominant ANC, with consequences beyond local government.
未来几周的联合执政协议可能会通过加强那些能够宣称最具可行性重返选举竞争力路径的派系，从而影响非国大2027年的领导层角逐，届时预计总统西里尔·拉马福萨将卸任党魁。这也将影响各方在2029年国家权力竞逐中的定位。
Coalition deals in the coming weeks could influence the ANC's 2027 leadership contest, when President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to step aside as party leader, by strengthening whichever faction can claim the most viable path back to electoral competitiveness. It will also affect how parties position themselves in the race for national power in 2029.
分析人士表示，非国大在多数主要城市名列第二或第三，且选民表现出越来越愿意抛弃政治忠诚转而支持政绩之后，该党目前的谈判地位已经减弱。
The ANC is now negotiating from a weaker position, analysts said, after finishing second or third in most major cities and seeing voters demonstrate a growing willingness to abandon political loyalties in favour of performance.
民间社会团体“保卫我们的民主”执行主任韦德·曼宁表示：“这向我们表明，我们的民主确实成熟了。公民不再只是给政党开空白支票了。”联合之战约翰内斯堡将成为检验非国大能否利用联合谈判遏制其衰落，或其对手能否将选举斩获转化为持久政治权力的最高调测试。
"What it's shown us is that there's definitely a maturity of our democracy," said Wade Manning, Executive Director of the civil society group Defend Our Democracy. "It's no longer just a blank check that the citizens have given to political parties." COALITION BATTLE Johannesburg will be the most high-profile test of whether the ANC can use coalition bargaining to arrest its decline or its rivals can turn electoral gains into lasting political power.
尽管非国大仍然是最大党，但在任何主要城市都没有赢得绝对控制权，并在商业首都约翰内斯堡以及行政首都比勒陀利亚所在的茨瓦内输给了亲商的民主联盟（DA），名列第二。
Although it remains the largest party, the ANC won control of no major city outright and came second to the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) in the commercial capital Johannesburg and in Tshwane, home to administrative capital Pretoria.
该党在包含港口城市德班在内的埃特克维尼名列第三，前总统雅各布·祖马的政党民族之矛在此赢得了最多选票。
The party finished third in eThekwini, which includes the port city of Durban, where former president Jacob Zuma's party uMkhonto weSizwe won the most votes.
接下来的两周将举行联合谈判，在没有政党获得多数席位的城市组建政府。非国大可能会达成允许其保持影响力的协议。
Coalition talks will follow over the next two weeks to form governments in municipalities where no party secured a majority. The ANC could strike deals that allow it to retain influence.
但民主联盟在八个大都市中有五个名列第一，将以大得多的挑选伙伴空间进入谈判，而小型党派将在几个竞争激烈的市镇中掌握权力平衡。
But the DA will enter negotiations with considerably more room to choose its partners, having come first in five out of eight metro areas, while smaller parties will hold the balance of power in several contested municipalities.
民间社会团体对选举结果表示欢迎，认为这对政治竞争是一大推动，但警告称联合协议必须优先考虑问责制、透明度和更好的公共服务。
Civil society groups welcomed the result as a boost for political competition but warned that coalition deals must prioritise accountability, transparency and better public services.
预算正义联盟的马希迪索·伦科萨表示：“如果他们在联合执政方面做出的决策依然不把我们人民的最佳利益放在首位，我们只会迎来又一个混乱的联合执政、混乱政治的五年。”从地方投票到国家权力这场选举是民主联盟的胜利，该党一直试图摆脱其遭到拒绝的“白人政党”标签。
"If they continue to make decisions in terms of coalitions that don't foreground what's in the best interests of our people, we're just going to have another five years of messy coalitions, messy politics," said Matshidiso Lencoasa of the Budget Justice Coalition. FROM LOCAL VOTE TO NATIONAL POWER The election was a victory for the DA, which has sought to shed its reputation as a "white party", a label it rejects.
民主联盟根据其建模表示，其首次赢得了超过一百万黑人南非人的选票。这种支持能否转化为2029年下一次全国大选中的更广泛授权，还有待观察。
The party said it had won the votes of more than one million Black South Africans for the first time, based on its modelling. It remains to be seen whether it can translate that support into a broader mandate in the next national elections in 2029.
非国大回应称，承认其未能提供基本服务，并表示已准备好做出改变。
The ANC responded by acknowledging its failures to deliver basic services and saying it was ready to change.
非国大在选举后的声明中表示：“社区一直没有水喝。垃圾没有被收集……在某些地方，属于人民的钱没有花在人民身上。”该党高级领导人将于本周晚些时候举行会议，分析失败原因。
"Communities have gone without water. Refuse has not been collected... In some places money that belonged to the people was not spent on the people," said the ANC in a post-election statement. Its senior leaders will hold a meeting later this week to analyse the loss.
但政治分析人士威廉·古梅德表示，该党内部存在分歧，可能难以实施夺回选民信任所需的全面改革。
But the party is divided and may struggle to carry out the overhaul needed to regain voters' trust, political analyst William Gumede said.
随着领导层过渡的临近，这一任务将变得复杂，拉马福萨的非国大党魁任期将于2027年12月结束，且没有明显的继任者。因此，选举溃败可能会在关于非国大未来走向的争斗中产生反响。
That task will be complicated by an approaching leadership transition, with Ramaphosa's term as ANC leader ending in December 2027 and no obvious successor in place. The electoral rout could therefore reverberate through the battle over the ANC's future direction.
古梅德表示，尽管非国大仍控制着最高层政府，但选举结果可能会削弱其公信力。
Although it still controls the highest levels of government, the ANC's credibility may be undermined by the election result, said Gumede.
他说，该党的失利已经在社交媒体上成为了一个笑料。一段喜剧短片嘲笑了该党的无能，而在另一段视频中，人们为非国大举行了模拟葬礼。古梅德表示：“一旦你进入那个领域，你的权威就荡然无存了。”
Its loss has already become a punchline on social media, he said. One comedy sketch mocked the party's incompetence, while in another video people staged a mock funeral for the ANC. "Once you get into that space, your authority is gone," said Gumede.