约翰内斯堡，11月2日——姆福·莫罗卡第一次投票是在2008年，当时她支持非国大。将近二十年后，来自索韦托的38岁失业者莫罗卡已转投对手民主联盟，为地方选举做准备。
JOHANNESBURG, Nov 2 - The first time Mpho Moroka voted, in 2008, she backed the African National Congress. Almost two decades on, the unemployed 38-year-old from Soweto has switched sides to the rival Democratic Alliance ahead of local elections.
“我来自城镇。我看到了贫困，看到了挣扎，也看到了没有变化，”她在民主联盟的竞选集会上对路透社说。“所以我说，不再支持非国大。”莫罗卡的转变反映出南非选民更广泛的分化，这使得要获得绝对多数席位变得越来越困难。
"I'm from the township. I saw the poverty, I saw the struggles and I saw that there is no change," she told Reuters at a Democratic Alliance campaign rally. "So I said no more ANC." Moroka's shift reflects a broader fragmentation of South Africa's electorate that has made outright majorities increasingly difficult to secure.
民调显示，历史上占据主导地位的非国大将继续是总体上最大的单一政党，但在11月4日的投票中将遭受支持流失。
Polls suggest the historically dominant ANC will remain the biggest single party overall, but suffer a haemorrhaging of support in the November 4 votes.
在没有明确胜选者的情况下，该党及其对手将不得不坐下来，承担为南非主要市政当局组建联合政府这一充满挑战的任务。
In the absence of clear victories, the party and its rivals will have to sit down to the fraught task of negotiating coalitions to govern South Africa's major municipalities.
他们的挑战——是克服分歧，组建足够稳定的政府，以改善服务、重建基础设施并吸引投资。“许多政党都欺骗过我们”牛津经济非洲高级政治分析师劳·内尔表示，民调显示非国大的支持率可能降至31%至34%左右——大约是其在2011年地方选举中获得的60%以上支持率的一半。
Their challenge — to get over their differences and form administrations stable enough to improve services, rebuild infrastructure and attract investment. 'WE'VE BEEN LIED TO BY MANY PARTIES' Louw Nel, senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said polling suggested support for the ANC could fall to as low as 31% to 34% — around half the more than 60% it secured in the 2011 local elections.
但第二大政党民主联盟并未吸走所有非国大的弃党者，内尔对路透社表示。
But the Democratic Alliance, the second-biggest party, was not capturing all of its deserters, Nel told Reuters.
相反，他说，选民正在分散到包括左翼经济自由战士党以及由前总统雅各布·祖马领导的乌姆孔托韦西兹韦党在内的多个政党中。数百个政党正在参加此次投票。不满情绪的迹象不仅限于约翰内斯堡。
Instead, he said, voters were dispersing among a number of parties including the left-leaning Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe, led by former president Jacob Zuma. Hundreds of parties are taking part in the votes. Signs of disaffection extend beyond Johannesburg.
在开普敦，28岁的首次投票者、失业者阿卜杜勒·通塔表示，他想要改变和工作。
In Cape Town, unemployed first-time voter Abdul Tonta, 28, said he wanted change and jobs. "Obviously we've been lied to a lot of times ... by many parties in the past," he said.
“显然，过去许多政党多次欺骗了我们……他说。“我至少去投票，是因为我想看到像我和我兄弟这样的人也能有工作。”“联盟会拖累你”虽然有人欢迎变革的前景，但也有人警告称，未来市政厅联盟交易和闭门谈判可能带来弊端。
"I'm at least voting because I want to see people like me and people like my brothers having jobs as well." 'COALITIONS HOLD YOU BACK' While some welcomed the prospect of change, others warned of downsides to a future of city hall coalition deals and closed-door negotiations.
“现行立法下联盟的一个问题是，它们被留给各政党自行谈判，”民间社会组织“约翰内斯堡危机联盟”协调员尤努斯·查姆达说。该组织成立于2023年，旨在应对他所说的“联盟混乱”。
"One problem with coalitions under the current legislation is that they are left to parties to negotiate amongst themselves," said Yunus Chamda, coordinator of the civil society group Joburg Crisis Alliance, formed in 2023 to deal with what he called "coalition chaos".
查姆达表示，政治联盟的转变和市长的频繁更替，导致约翰内斯堡的服务恶化和财政衰退，原因包括让小党派拥有过大权力，以及让政客逃避问责。
Shifting political alliances and a revolving door of mayors have contributed to worsening services and financial decline in Johannesburg, including by giving small parties too much power and allowing politicians to evade accountability, Chamda said.
约翰内斯堡此前两任市长来自一个在市议会270个席位中仅有3个席位的政党。自2021年以来，该市已更换了七任市长。
Johannesburg's previous two mayors were from a party that had only three out of 270 seats in the city council. The city has seen seven mayors since 2021.
“这造成了巨大的不稳定。当你面对政党时，它们能够将攻击转移到‘这是联盟’这一事实上，”查姆达说。
"It's created this huge instability. And when you confront political parties, they are able to divert the attack to the fact that it's a coalition," Chamda said.
分析人士表示，在竞争激烈的市政当局实现稳定市政府的一种途径，可能是让国民大会党和民主联盟——这两个传统对手在2024年选举后于国家政府层面联手——在地方层面复制这一安排。
Analysts said one route to stable municipal governments in highly contested municipalities could be for the ANC and the DA, traditional rivals that joined forces in the national government after the 2024 election, to replicate that arrangement locally.
“在约翰内斯堡、比勒陀利亚和埃库鲁莱尼等城市，最重要的问题是它们是否能产生稳定的政府，”内尔说。
"The most important question in cities like Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni is whether they will produce a stable government," Nel said.
两个政党都需要权衡在国家、省和市政层面共同执政的政治代价。两党都不热衷于这一前景。
Both parties would need to weigh the political cost of governing together across national, provincial and municipal levels. Neither is enthusiastic about the prospect.
“联盟使我们难以全面实施我们的纲领，”国民大会党约翰内斯堡地区主席洛伊索·马苏库上个月在一次竞选活动停留时表示。
"Coalitions make it difficult for us to fully implement our programme," the ANC's Johannesburg regional chairperson, Loyiso Masuku, said at a campaign stop last month.
民主联盟的约翰内斯堡市长候选人海伦·齐尔表示，合作伙伴往往不尊重签署的协议。“从定义上讲，联盟会拖累你，”她说。
The DA's candidate for mayor of Johannesburg, Helen Zille, said partners often don't respect the agreements that were signed. "By definition, coalitions hold you back," she said.