
戴安娜·霍克-卡卢比 2026年11月3日 南非民众将于周三前往投票站,在缺水、对地方服务不满以及对非国大支持率是否会继续下滑的疑问中进行投票。
Dianne Hawker-Kalubi November 3, 2026 South Africans head to the polls on Wednesday amid water shortages, frustration with local services and questions over whether the ANC's support will keep falling.
优选DW 谷歌新闻 缺水和电力供应不稳定已成为激怒选民的市政失败的象征 “我们决定不投票。完全不投,”瓦蒂斯瓦·佐亚在选民前往投票站选举新的市政领导人前两天说道。“有什么意义?我们依然会饿着肚子睡觉。”正是这些挫败感将促使22岁的林多库勒·姆班达扎约前往投票站,尽管她尚未决定把票投给谁。
Prefer DW on Google Water shortages and unreliable electricity supplies have become symbols of municipal failures that have angered voters "We've decided not to vote. At all," said Vatiswa Zoya, two days before voters in South Africa cast their ballots for new municipal government leaders. "What is the point? We will still sleep hungry." These very same frustrations are what will lead 22-year-old Lindokuhle Mbandazayo to the polls, although she has yet to decide where to place her cross.
“当我们投票给议员时,是希望他们解决社区问题,”姆班达扎约告诉德国之声。“这里经常停电。街道上还有污水横流,我们不得不跨过去。这里有很多东西需要修缮。”这两名女子都居住在特比萨,这是豪登省伊库鲁莱尼市的一个城镇,位于南非最大城市约翰内斯堡的郊区。两人都表达了对生活条件的“根深蒂固的挫败感”。
"When we vote for councilors, we ask them to fix the area," Mbandazayo told DW. "The electricity goes off regularly here. There is also sewage in the streets and we have to jump over this. There are a lot of things that need to be fixed here." Both women live in Tembisa, a township in Ekurhuleni, a municipality on the outskirts of Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city. Both express an "embedded frustration" over their living conditions.
缺水和电力供应不稳定已成为激怒选民的市政失败的象征 全球对话研究所分析师萨努沙·奈杜指出,正是这种“根深蒂固的挫败感”促使人们走向投票站。
Water shortages and unreliable electricity supplies have become symbols of municipal failures that have angered voters Sanusha Naidu, an analyst at the Institute for Global Dialogue, noted that it is this "embedded frustration" that prompts people to vote.
“你的选票实际上能迫使这些政党承担责任,但我认为这种挫败感也源于一个事实:问题不可能一夜之间解决,”奈杜说。
"Your vote actually puts some of these political parties' feet to the fire, but I think that frustration is also inherently coming from the fact that it's not going to happen overnight," Naidu said.
周三,南非人将参加地方政府选举,这将决定该国最大城市的控制权,并检验作为国家联合政府主要执政党的非洲人国民大会(ANC)的选情是否会继续下滑。以下是关于11月4日选举的五大看点。
On Wednesday, South Africans will vote in local government elections that will determine control of the country's largest cities and test whether the African National Congress (ANC) the leading party in a national government coalition, continues its electoral decline. Here are five things to know about the November 4 election.
- 缺水成为关键选民议题许多选民的投票动力将取决于投票日能否洗澡,因为全国许多地区都面临供水问题。
- Water as a key voter issue Many voters will be motivated by whether they can shower or not on voting day, as many parts of the country experience water supply issues.
在约翰内斯堡,由于老旧基础设施难以维持供应,多个社区已面临停水和限水数周。
In Johannesburg, several neighborhoods have faced water cuts and rationing for weeks as old infrastructure struggles to keep up with supply.
“每个省都有问题。以饮用水水质为例,南非有一半的饮用水系统不适合饮用,”水权非政府组织“水罐行动”(WaterCAN)执行主任费里亚尔·亚当(Ferrial Adam)表示。
"Every province has an issue. So if we take for example drinking water quality, half of the drinking water systems in South Africa are not fit for drinking," said Ferrial Adam, executive director of water rights NGO WaterCAN.
“我们近70%的污水处理厂处于危急状态,正向全国各地的河流和溪流排放污水,”她在约翰内斯堡一次抗议停水的活动中对德国之声(DW)补充道,“这绝对是一场横跨南非的水危机。”在包含南非行政首都比勒陀利亚的大都会区茨瓦内,近期一次水处理故障导致400多名居民生病。
"Almost 70% of our wastewater treatment works are in a critical state and spewing sewage into rivers and streams across the country," she told DW during a protest over water cuts in Johannesburg, adding that "it is a definite water crisis across South Africa." In Tshwane, a metropolitan area that includes South Africa's administrative capital, Pretoria, a recent water treatment failure left more than 400 residents sick.
全球对话研究所分析师萨努沙·奈杜(Sanusha Naidu)表示,尽管人们普遍担忧水质和供水,但许多竞选者并未就其解决方案提供足够的细节。
Sanusha Naidu, an analyst at the Institute for Global Dialogue, says that despite widespread worries about water quality and supply, many of those campaigning have not provided adequate details on their solutions. "I think their promises have been very transactional.
“我认为他们的承诺非常具有交易性。他们的承诺总是,你知道,我们要给你们社区供水。我们要确保水龙头有水流出。我们要确保解决供水方面的老旧基础设施等。但我不认为他们在理解预算对用水权意味着什么这一层面上有深入探讨,”她说。
Their promises are always, you know, we're going to bring water to your community. We're going to make sure the taps are flowing. We're going to ensure that we're going to deal with the old infrastructure around water, etc. But I don't think they've dug deeper in terms of understanding what the budgets say about water access," she said.
- 非国大走向衰落许多选民将市政状况恶化归咎于非洲人国民大会(ANC),该党历史上在大多数市政机构中拥有绝对多数席位。
- ANC in decline Many voters place blame for the state of municipalities on the African National Congress, which has historically held an outright majority in most municipalities.
2016年,非国大获得总体53.91%的选票,在213个议会中有161个拥有绝对多数。2021年,这一比例下降至总体45.59%的选票,在213个市政机构中拥有绝对多数的仅剩122个。
In 2016 the ANC secured 53.91% of the overall vote and had an outright majority in 161 of 213 councils. In 2021, that decreased to 45.59% of the overall vote with a majority in 122 of 213 municipalities.
全球市场研究公司益普索(Ipsos)预测,该党在此次选举中的支持率可能降至30%左右,导致由联盟执政的市政当局增多。
Global marketing research firm Ipsos predicts that the party's support could fall as low as 30% in this election, resulting in an increase in coalition-run municipalities.
南非因移民问题爆发全国性抗议 要观看此视频 ,奈杜指出,该党难以跟上不断变化的选民期望,尤其是现在构成选民主体的千禧一代和Z世代选民。
South Africa sees nationwide protests over migrants To view this video , and Naidu notes that the party has struggled to keep up with the expectations of evolving voters, particularly millennial and Gen Z voters who now make up the bulk of voters.
“选民想看看你们推出的这些人是谁,他们要来说你们会让事情为我们运转起来,”她说。
"You have an electorate that wants to see who are these people that you're putting out there to say you're going to make things work for us," she said.
姆班达佐就是这样一位选民,这是她第二次参加选举投票,她说自己在寻找政治领域的新声音。
Mbandazayo is one such voter, who is casting her ballot in her second election and says she is looking for a new voice in politics.
“我们需要变革。我正考虑投给另一个政党,因为现任政党没有为我们做好工作,因为我们已经投了他们很长时间了,”她告诉德国之声。
"We need change. I am considering voting for another party because the current party is not doing well for us because we've been voting for them for a long time," she told DW.
- 移民成为热门议题几个月来,南非围绕移民问题出现了一波抗议浪潮,10月因反对该国的庇护程序而升级。
- Migration a big talking point South Africa has seen a wave of protests around migration for several months, ramping up in October with opposition to the country's asylum process.
数字分析公司Murmur Intelligence表示,包括行动南非党(Action SA)、吴姆科托·韦·西兹韦党(MK Party)和爱国联盟(Patriotic Alliance)在内的政党已将移民作为竞选议题。
Murmur Intelligence, a digital analysis firm, says parties including Action SA, the MK Party and the Patriotic Alliance have used immigration as a campaign issue. "The party that might claim the most benefit from that sentiment … is Action SA, noted Murmur Intelligence co-founder Aldu Cornelissen.
“从这种情绪中获益最大的政党……是行动南非党,”Murmur Intelligence联合创始人阿尔杜·科内利森(Aldu Cornelissen)指出。
"They would make a clear argument that we need to get rid of illegal immigrants. We need to improve immigration.
“他们会明确主张:我们需要清除非法移民。我们需要改善移民管理。我们需要保护边境,这些都是合理的关切,对吧?所以,如果有任何政党能利用这种情绪,那将是他们。”科内利森补充道:“但能得多少百分比?我打赌大概在6%到8%之间。”
We need to protect our borders, which are all legitimate concerns, right? So, if any of the parties could capitalize on this sentiment, it would be them." "But for what percentage? I would wager between 6% and 8%, roughly," Cornelissen added.
这些比例看似不高,但在日益碎片化的政治版图中,各党都在为每一张选票而战。
Those margins may seem low, but in an increasingly fractured political landscape parties are fighting for every vote.
独立选举委员会(IEC)表示,全国共有136,760名候选人参选,其中约翰内斯堡有75个政党参选,茨瓦内有70个,埃特克维尼(德班及周边地区)有69个。
The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has said 136,760 candidates are contesting across the country, with 75 parties contesting in Johannesburg, 70 in Tshwane and 69 in eThekwini (Durban and surrounding areas).
- 选举虚假信息假新闻和虚假的AI生成内容已成为本次选举的一个特征,独立选举委员会正在调查700多起虚假信息投诉。其中一个引人注目的指控称,非国大计划动员寻求庇护者为其投票。
- Election misinformation Fake news and false AI-generated content have become a feature in this election, with the IEC investigating over 700 complaints of disinformation. One of the prominent claims has been an accusation that the ANC plans to mobilize asylum seekers to vote for them.
无论在南非居住多久,寻求庇护者、难民和永久居民均无法合法参加南非选举。
Asylum seekers, refugees and permanent residents can't legally vote in South African elections regardless of how long they've been in the country.
南非选举遭遇虚假信息激增 媒体监测机构Moxii Africa总监威廉·伯德表示,错误信息和虚假信息“现在已成为世界各地任何选举环境标准筹备过程中的一部分”。“我们看到虚假信息总是抓住当下的热点新闻议题,以及关于选举的标准陈词滥调,”他说,并补充道,总会有“一群小丑”声称选举被操纵。
South Africa election hit by disinformation surge William Bird, director of media monitoring agency Moxii Africa, says misinformation and disinformation "are now kind of part and parcel of your standard build-up to any electoral environment, wherever you are in the world." "What we see with disinformation is that it always picks up on whatever the hot button news issues are, as well as the standard kind of tropes about elections, he said, adding that there's always going to be "some bunch of clowns" saying the elections are rigged. "And in South Africa's case, there's no evidence to support that at all.
“而在南非的情况下,完全没有证据支持这一点。独立选举委员会是世界上最优秀的选举管理机构之一。因此,当然会有人想要破坏稳定,或者只是想搅乱局势、让人感到恐惧或愤怒,于是他们利用这类叙事。不幸的是,这正成为一种日益常见的特征,”伯德对德国之声(DW)表示。
The IEC [Electoral Commission of South Africa] is one of the best electoral management bodies in the world. So of course, you then see people that are either wanting to destabilize, or they're wanting to just shake things up and make people scared or angry, and so they use those kinds of narratives. And that, unfortunately, is becoming an increasingly common trait," Bird told DW.
伯德补充说,社交媒体平台往往“激励并刻意鼓励人们”在网上攻击他人。
Bird added that social media platforms often "incentivize and deliberately encourage people" to attack others online.
- 选民能否前往投票站?地方政府选举的投票率历来低于全国选举。2016年投票率为57.95%,随后降至45.87%。2024年最近一次全国选举的投票率为58.64%。
- Will people make it to the polls? Local government election turnout has historically been lower than turnout in national elections. In 2016, turnout was at 57.95% and dropped to 45.87%. In 2024, in the most recent national elections, turnout was at 58.64%.
奈杜表示,这场选举最终将取决于有多少人前往投票站投票,而非网络讨论或竞选口号。
Naidu says this election will ultimately depend less on online discussions or campaign slogans and more on how many people make it to the polls.
选民将填写两张选票——一张用于直接选举地方代表,另一张用于根据比例代表制(PR)选举政党。
Voters will mark two ballots — one for a direct local representative and a second for a political party under a proportional representation (PR) system.
通过比例代表制投票分配的席位占所有议会席位的一半,使其与直接选举议员的投票同样重要,这也是选民投票率成为关键因素的原因。
Seats allocated through the PR vote account for half of all council seats, making them as important as the direct votes for councilors and this is where voter turnout becomes a key element.
她说:“这就是为什么政党呼吁民众外出投票、外出投票,因为如果你不去投票,会影响你在议会中获得的比例代表制票数计算以及你获得的席位。”这反过来又影响每个市政当局的组成,以及是否会组建新的联合政府。你今天还负担得起在开普敦生活吗?
"That is why political parties are saying to people, go out and vote, go out and vote, because if you don't go out and vote, it has an impact on the calculation of what you win as a PR vote in the council and the seats that you get," she said. In turn, this affects the make-up of each municipality and whether new coalition governments will form. Could you still afford to live in Cape Town today?