科技股的暴跌进一步使本已受AI热潮提振的全球经济前景蒙上阴影，交易员们开始质疑各国央行是否还有空间继续加息，以遏制伊朗战争引发的能源价格飙升。
The rout in tech stocks further clouds the outlook for a global economy bolstered by the AI boom, leaving traders questioning whether central banks will have scope for further interest rate hikes to contain an Iran war-induced energy price surge.
周五，市场对美国联邦储备委员会和欧洲央行在12月加息的押注信心下降，这一天恰逢以科技股领涨的纳斯达克指数出现自2025年4月“解放日”大跌以来最深单日跌幅。
Market bets on the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raising rates in December were less confident on Friday, a day after the tech-led Nasdaq index suffered its deepest one-day drop since the April 2025 "Liberation Day" drubbing.
此次抛售抹去了数万亿美元的市值，发生在美国民主党在中期选举中全线胜出之后，令市场对AI监管加强以及数据中心建设受限的担忧加剧，同时也加深了对AI建设巨额成本的顾虑。
The selloff, wiping out trillions in market value, came after US Democrats swept midterm elections, adding fears of greater AI scrutiny and curbs on data center construction to concerns about the huge cost of the AI build out.
随着股市抛售范围扩大，台湾股市录得自2001年以来最差的一周，全球金融环境趋紧以及对消费者的冲击可能放缓经济增长，即使能源价格飙升，也会限制进一步加息的空间。
As the equity rout broadened, with Taiwan shares posting their worst week since 2001, tighter global financial conditions and the hit to consumers could slow economic growth, limiting the scope for further rate hikes even as energy prices spike.
“股市与经济，尤其是美国经济，息息相关，金融环境将是关键，”美国道富银行EMEA宏观策略主管蒂姆·格拉夫表示。
"The stock market is inextricably linked to the economy, particularly the US economy, and financial conditions are going to be paramount," said Tim Graf, head of macro strategy for EMEA at State Street.
“当你开始影响股票估值和资产价值时……推动增长的财富效应或促进消费增长的效应将会逆转，”他说。
"When you start to impact equity valuations and asset values... the wealth effects that fueled growth or contributed to fueling consumer-led growth go in reverse," he said.
对利率敏感的美国2年期国债收益率本周有望连续第二周下跌10个基点，法国和德国2年期国债收益率本周分别下跌19个和7个基点。
Rate-sensitive US 2-year bond yields were on track to fall 10 basis points for a second straight week , while French and German 2-year yields were down 19 and 7 bps on the week respectively , .
市场对12月欧洲央行加息的概率定价约为60%，低于上周的75%；交易员认为日本央行下月维持利率不变的概率为58%，而加息的概率为42%。
Markets price a roughly 60% chance of a December ECB rate hike, down from 75% last week, while traders see a 58% probability of the Bank of Japan leaving rates unchanged next month, versus 42% odds of a hike.
他们对12月美联储加息的概率定价约为70%，低于上周的80%以上。
They price a roughly 70% chance of a December Fed rate hike, down from over 80% last week.
“美国金融环境的收紧，在决定美联储12月的政策行动方面，可能比今天的非农就业报告（NFP）更为重要，”三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）高级货币分析师李·哈德曼（Lee Hardman）表示。
"The tightening of US financial conditions could prove more important in deciding Fed policy action in December than today's NFP (nonfarm payrolls) report," said MUFG senior currency analyst Lee Hardman.
得益于股权持仓激增，美国家庭财富在第二季度以创纪录速度增长，而标普500指数（.SPX）在五年内上涨了近60%。
US household wealth rose at a record pace in the second quarter on a surge in equity holdings, while the S&P 500 is up almost 60% over a five-year period (.SPX).
韩国尤其容易受到人工智能（AI）低迷的影响，因为数据中心热潮对其出口、投资和股市的重要性日益增加。
South Korea is particularly exposed to an AI downturn, with the data-centre boom increasingly important to its exports, investment and stock market.
韩国央行（Bank of Korea）决策者强调，在评估实体经济时，实际内存价格比芯片制造商的股价更为重要。
Bank of Korea policymakers have stressed that actual memory prices, rather than chipmakers' share prices, are more important in assessing the real economy.
花旗（Citi）的金镇旭（Jin-Wook Kim，音译）表示：“在经济方面，私人消费在（第四季度）面临下行风险的可能性似乎相当大。”他预计韩国央行将在11月和次年2月各加息25个基点。但他补充称，内存价格和半导体出口如果大幅下跌，可能会促使央行在11月后暂停加息。
"On the economy, downside risks to private consumption appear quite likely in (the fourth quarter)," said Jin-Wook Kim at Citi, who expects 25-basis-point rate hikes in November and February. But a sharp drop in memory prices and semiconductor exports could prompt the central bank to pause after November, he said.
对于其他新兴市场而言，影响则不那么明确。全球风险厌情绪升温可能削弱货币并增加通胀压力，限制央行应对增长放缓的能力。
For other emerging markets, the implications are less clear-cut. A global risk-off move could weaken currencies and add to inflation pressures, limiting central banks' ability to respond to slowing growth.
宏利（Manulife）投资组合经理埃琳娜·西奥多拉科普洛（Elina Theodorakopoulou，音译）表示：“预计将出现更大的政策分化，而非同步的政策反应，央行需要在通胀风险与市场主导的金融环境收紧之间取得平衡。”
"Greater policy dispersion is to be expected rather than a synchronised policy reaction, with central banks needing to balance inflation risks against tighter market-led financial conditions," said Manulife portfolio manager Elina Theodorakopoulou.
分析师警告，目前判断科技股抛售是从高位回调，还是开启了一轮大幅拖累增长的深度下跌，为时尚早。
Analysts cautioned it was still early to tell whether the tech selloff was a correction from lofty levels or the start of a deeper move that slows growth sharply.
苏黎世保险（Zurich Insurance）欧洲市场策略及经济主管罗斯·哈钦森（Ross Hutchinson）表示：“这确实增加了短期内一些下行风险。但从长期来看，情况似乎更具可持续性。”他指出，AI的看涨理由不在于数据中心建设，而在于生产力提振推动经济活动和企业盈利。
"It does increase the risks of some downside in the short-term," said Ross Hutchinson, head of euro market strategy and economics at Zurich Insurance. "But the longer-term situation looks to be more sustainable." He said the bull case for AI is not about data center building but about a boost to productivity driving economic activity and corporate earnings.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测今年全球经济增长率为3.1%，该组织表示，在一种不利情景下，人工智能投资的大幅下滑可能会在2028年前将全球GDP削减1.1%。
The International Monetary Fund, which forecasts global growth at 3.1% this year, says a steep drop in AI investment could slash global GDP by 1.1% by 2028 in one downside scenario.
增长放缓的前景可能缓解价格压力，这有助于解释降息押注的回落。但央行也在应对更高的能源价格。
The prospect of slower growth, which could ease price pressures, helps explain the pullback in rate-hike bets. But central banks are also grappling with higher energy prices.
法国兴业银行新兴市场研究全球主管Phoenix Kalen表示：“对央行而言，源于中东冲突导致的能源价格升高对通胀动态的影响，仍然是核心关注点。”
"For central banks, the impact on inflation dynamics stemming from elevated energy prices arising from the Middle East conflict is still a central focus," said Phoenix Kalen, global head of emerging markets research at Societe Generale.
“政策制定者正在努力弄清能源价格冲击可能持续多久。”今年全球利率上升，是对伊朗战争导致的油价飙升做出的反应。
"Policymakers are grappling with understanding the likely duration of the energy price shock." Interest rates have risen globally this year in response to the oil price surge resulting from the Iran war.
欧元区通胀率升至三年高点4%，高于欧洲央行2%的目标。美国通胀率已连续五年多高于美联储目标。
Euro zone inflation is at a three-year high of 4%, above the ECB's 2% target. US inflation has been above the Fed's target for over five years.
RBC BlueBay固定收益首席投资官Mark Dowding表示：“在欧元区，我们看到随着2027年的推进，通胀将更快回到目标水平，因此如果欧洲央行在12个月后降息，我们不会感到惊讶。”
"In the euro zone we see inflation back to target more quickly as we move through 2027 and so we would not be surprised if the ECB is cutting rates 12 months from now," said RBC BlueBay fixed income CIO Mark Dowding.