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科技股溃败与动荡Tech wreck and roll

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2026年11月4日,美国纽约市,交易员在纽约证券交易所(NYSE)的交易大厅内工作。路透社/Jeenah Moon/资料照片Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, November 4, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo

全球金融市场的交易员进入下周之际,希望席卷科技股的风暴能自行平息,并希望伊朗战争不会再度升级,从而推高油价。

Traders on the world's financial markets go into next week hoping the storm engulfing tech stocks blows itself out and for no new escalation in the Iran war that sends oil prices surging again.

此外还将迎来美国和中国的关键数据,联合国气候变化大会(COP)将在土耳其开幕,欧洲将就下一任欧洲中央银行行长人选展开艰难谈判,新西兰则将在本周末迎来胜负难料的大选。

There are also key US and Chinese data, the UN's COP climate summit gets underway in Turkey, Europe will be horse trading over the next ECB chief and there's a too-close-to-call election in New Zealand this weekend.

以下是伦敦的达拉·拉纳辛格(Dhara Ranasinghe)、阿伦·约翰(Alun John)和西蒙·杰索普(Simon Jessop)、纽约的刘易斯·克劳斯科普夫(Lewis Krauskopf)以及新加坡的格雷戈尔·斯图亚特·亨特(Gregor Stuart Hunter)为您梳理的下周金融市场看点。

Here's all you need to know about the coming week in financial markets by Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John and Simon Jessop in London, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore.

民主党在美国中期选举中的胜利,对曾经不可阻挡的大盘科技股交易造成了最新沉重打击。

The Democrats' US midterm win is the latest hammer blow to the once-unstoppable Big Tech trade.

纳斯达克指数周四暴跌5.5%,创下2025年4月解放日惨败以来的最大跌幅,仅该指数就蒸发了2.5万亿美元。

The Nasdaq's 5.5% slump(.IXIC) on Thursday was its biggest since the Liberation Day rout of April 2025 and wiped $2.5 trillion off that one index alone.

此前,市场对人工智能(AI)基础设施建设天价成本的担忧已经不断加剧。而现在,中期选举过后,可能放缓一切进程的更严格监管的前景,同样带来了痛击。

Worries had already been intensifying about the stratospheric cost of the AI buildout. Now, post-midterms, the prospect of tougher regulations that slow everything down is hurting just as much.

民主党在得克萨斯州和佐治亚州的胜利反映了选民对数据中心的强烈反弹,这些数据中心是AI热潮的核心,但也极其丑陋和嘈杂,并需要消耗巨大的能源和水资源。

Democratic wins in Texas and Georgia reflected the voter backlash against the data centres that are at the heart of the AI boom, but are also ugly and loud and require huge amounts of energy and water.

有些人觉得可能会达成某种妥协,因为AI已成为关键的经济驱动力。但如果下周抛售潮卷土重来,对增长的担忧可能会加剧,许多人会怀疑金融系统中与之相关联的某个地方是否会崩盘。

Some sense a compromise might be struck since AI has become a key economic driver. But if the rout resumes next week, growth worries will likely mount and plenty will be wondering whether something somewhere in the financial system tied to it all might break.

美国的数据以及接下来一周油价的走向,可能会决定美联储是否会在年底前再次加息。

US data and the direction of oil prices over the next week could determine whether the Federal Reserve hikes its interest rates one more time before the year is out.

据路透社的一项民调显示,周二公布的美国消费者价格指数(CPI)——或许是备受关注的通胀指标——预计将显示月度环比上涨0.3%,而周五还将公布衡量生产者价格的另一个关键数据。

Tuesday's US consumer price index (CPI) — perhaps the most closely watched inflation measure — is expected to show a monthly rise of 0.3%, according to a Reuters poll, while Friday brings another key read on producer prices.

就目前而言,交易员预计美联储在12月8日至9日会议上加息的概率超过80%。这将使联邦基金利率——全球借贷成本的主要驱动力——升至4.00%-4.25%,并紧随美联储在9月份三年来的首次加息之后。

As it stands, traders are pricing in a more than 80% chance of a Fed hike at its December 8-9 meeting. That would take the federal funds rate — the primary driver of global borrowing costs — to 4.00%-4.25% and follow the Fed's first rise in three years back in September.

接下来是石油。随着共和党在美国中期选举中惨败,激发了对总统唐纳德·特朗普可能会寻求缓和伊朗战争局势的押注,原油价格本周有所回落。任何一方释放的信号都将至关重要。

Then there's oil. Crude prices have pulled back this week after the Republicans' hammering in the US midterms stoked bets that President Donald Trump may look to de-escalate the Iran war. Any signal either way on that will be pivotal.

面对极高的能源价格和不断上升的借贷成本,今年欧洲经济增长表现出惊人的韧性。

European economic growth has been surprisingly resilient this year in the face of sky-high energy prices and rising borrowing costs.

随着季度就业数据的公布以及对季度GDP更精确的估计,下周将迎来又一次考验。上个月发布的第三季度初步闪查数据显示经济增长0.4%。

The coming week will provide another test with quarterly employment data due, as well as a more refined estimate of quarterly GDP. Last month's preliminary flash Q3 reading showed 0.4% growth.

如果这一数据得到证实,将提振周一召开的欧元区财长会议的气氛,会议的另一个核心议题将是接替克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)担任欧洲央行行长的人选,拉加德将于2月份离开法兰克福。

If confirmed, it would boost the mood at Monday's gathering of euro zone finance ministers, where another top topic will be who replaces European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde when she leaves Frankfurt in February.

提名即将敲定,预计的候选人包括前荷兰央行行长克拉斯·诺特(Klaas Knot)以及国际清算银行行长、西班牙的帕布罗·埃尔南德斯·德科斯(Pablo Hernandez de Cos)。

Nominations are about to be finalised and the expected candidates are former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and Spain's Pablo Hernandez de Cos, the head of the Bank for International Settlements.

欧盟希望在12月中旬的峰会前任命新欧洲央行行长,因此必须加快步伐。周一的会议可能会非常忙碌。

The EU hopes to appoint a new ECB president by its mid-December summit, so it will have to get a move on. Monday's meeting could be busy.

联合国第31届气候变化大会(COP31)将于周一在土耳其开幕,预计将有80多位世界领导人出席。今年极端天气事件不断恶化,并引发了一系列毁灭性灾害,大会正是在这一背景下召开的。

The UN's COP31 climate summit kicks off in Turkey on Monday, with more than 80 world leaders expected to attend against the backdrop of worsening extreme weather events that have caused a slew of devastating disasters this year.

由于在气候怀疑论者唐纳德·特朗普的领导下美国未正式参与,他在本周中期选举中的惨败将为一些人带来一丝希望,尽管建立自愿联盟以逐步淘汰化石燃料和制止森林砍伐的努力仍需继续。

With the US not formally involved under climate-sceptic Donald Trump, his humbling in this week's midterms will be a glimmer of hope for some, although efforts to build coalitions of the willing to phase out fossil fuels and halt deforestation will need to continue.

由于中东战争使石油和天然气价格保持高位,主办国土耳其也在敦促各国加速向绿色电力转型,力争到2035年将全球电力中来自清洁电力的比例从目前的约23%提高到35%。

As the Middle East war keeps oil and gas prices high, host Turkey is also pushing nations to accelerate the shift to green power so that 35% of the world's power comes from electricity by 2035, from around 23% now.

*然而,萦绕在所有问题之上的将是棘手的资金问题。随着许多较富裕国家大幅削减发展援助,脆弱的发展中国家将再次寻求更多帮助以应对气候变化。

Overhanging everything, though, will be the thorny issue of money. With development aid getting slashed by many richer countries, vulnerable developing countries will once again be looking for more help to cope with climate change.

随着高级政府官员周五为随后一周的东盟峰会进行最后筹备,下周马尼拉将迎来一波最后一刻的外交斡旋。

There will be a flurry of last-minute diplomacy in Manila next week as senior government officials start the final preparations on Friday for the following week's ASEAN nations summit.

主办11月15日至17日峰会的菲律宾总统费迪南德·马科斯(Ferdinand Marcos Jr)表示,中国国务院总理李强将出席会议,同时预计特朗普总统和他的加拿大“老对手”、总理马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)也将出席。

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who is hosting the November 15-17 gathering, has said Chinese Premier Li Qiang will be there, while both President Trump and his Canadian sparring partner, Prime Minister Mark Carney, are expected to attend too.

印度尼西亚也可能因今年早些时候让该地区大部分地区笼罩在浓厚烟霾中的野火而面临压力,新加坡已经誓言要加强一项关于跨界烟霾的协议。

Indonesia is also likely to come under pressure for its wildfires that blanketed much of the region in thick smog earlier this year, with Singapore already vowing to strengthen an agreement on transboundary haze.

在亚洲其他地区,中国将于周一发布10月通胀数据,并在本周晚些时候发布信贷数据,而新西兰选民则于周六前往投票站参加一场胜负难料的大选。

Elsewhere in Asia, China releases inflation data for October on Monday and lending data later in the week, while voters in New Zealand go to the polls on Saturday in an election that looks far too close to call.

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