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蓝色海啸是民主的胜利——也是对硅谷的警钟The Blue Tsunami Is a Victory for Democracy — and a Wake-Up Call for Silicon Valley

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本周速览 核心议题 新政治世界 承诺数据中心延迟 并挑战行业展现社会价值在中期选举后可能出现的各种反应中,有一项绝不在我们的预测范围内:投资者目睹民主党大获全胜 —— 随后却蜂拥买入大型科技股。

The Week in Short The Main Item New Political World Promises Data Center Delays & Challenges the Industry to Show its Societal Worth Of all the possible day-after reactions to the midterms, one that was not on our bingo card was investors looking at a Democratic tsunami — and then piling into Big Tech stocks.

周三一度让我们以为,人们突然接受了我们自2024年以来一直在此宣扬的观点:特朗普政权的无法无天、偏见、经济无知、孤立主义和无处不在的腐败,对科技行业极其、极其不利。看到主张同情、理性与公正的候选人击败了在特朗普治下如鱼得水的沼泽巨魔和骗子,我们欣喜若狂。

For a minute there on Wednesday, we thought people had suddenly come around to the view that we’ve been preaching here since 2024: the lawlessness, bigotry, economic illiteracy, isolationism, and ubiquitous corruption of the Trump regime were very, very bad for the tech industry. We were thrilled to see candidates who embraced compassion, reason, and fairness vanquish the swamp trolls and grifters who’ve flourished under Trump.

大家终于都清醒过来了!我们明白,减税和减少监管通常利好硅谷(尽管不一定利好国家)。但什么更好?法治政府、与贸易伙伴的良好关系、更开放的移民政策、公共生活和商业事务中的基本体面,以及对不可避免的AI监管采取诚实深思熟虑的态度。

Everyone had finally come to their senses! We get that lower taxes and less regulation are usually good for Silicon Valley (if not always the country). What’s even better? Rule-of-law government, good relations with trading partners, more liberal immigration policies, basic decency in public life and business affairs, and an honest and thoughtful approach to inevitable AI regulation.

遗憾的是,当我们看到选举后的股市飙升可能源于世界突然认同我们观点以外的原因时,大失所望。一种颇具讽刺意味的解释是:民主党将通过拖慢数据中心建设,从而限制超大规模企业可怕的资本支出预算,拯救科技公司于自我毁灭之中。但我们仍愿相信,特朗普落败后的乐观情绪多少也起了作用。

Alas, we were crestfallen when we saw that the post-election stock surge might be due to something other than the world abruptly seeing things our way. One explanation, amusingly, was that Democrats would save tech companies from themselves by slowing data center development and thus limiting the scary capex budgets of the hyperscalers. But we’d still like to think that optimism in the wake of Trump’s defeat had something to do with it.

无论如何,到周四,这种上涨趋势已迅速逆转,AI基础设施和芯片股尤其大幅下跌,并拖累了大盘。这种市场走势更容易解释:现在看来显而易见,大型数据中心(至少是地球上的那些)将比计划更昂贵——可能贵得多——因为政治阻力拖延或阻挠了项目,而利率居高不下。科技股周五略有反弹,但我们预计随着这种重新计算的过程展开,市场还将经历更多痛苦。

In any case, by Thursday, the uptick had quickly reversed and AI infrastructure and chip stocks especially were tanking and taking much of the market with them. That market move is easier to explain: it now seems obvious that large data centers, at least those on planet Earth, will be more costly than planned — maybe a lot more costly — as political opposition slows or blocks projects and interest rates remain elevated. Tech stocks were rebounding somewhat on Friday but we expect more pain in the markets as this recalculation plays through.

不过,我们也认为,这一时刻可能为AI行业提供一次健康的现实检验。无论以何种方式,AI公司都将不得不面对这样一个事实:它们尚未证明其产品能给大众带来广泛利益——而不是仅仅惠及工程管理人员或风险投资人。在它们做到这一点之前,对AI议程的政治抵制(无论是在数据中心问题上还是其他方面)将成为新常态。这远不止是一个信息传递问题。

Yet we also think this moment could offer a healthy reality check for the AI industry. One way or another, AI companies are going to have to wrestle with the fact that they haven’t shown that their wares will bring broad benefits to the masses — as opposed to, say, engineering managers, or venture capitalists. Until they do, political resistance to the AI agenda, on data centers and otherwise, will be the new normal. It’s much more than a messaging problem.

除此之外,硅谷还需要做一些灵魂探索。数据中心的反抗显然与民众对科技权力和财富的怨恨有关,而以埃隆·马斯克、马克·安德森和马克·扎克伯格为首的高管和投资者,通过采纳特朗普式的观点——即民众的担忧无足轻重——只是在火上浇油。

Even beyond that, Silicon Valley has some soul-searching to do. The data center revolt is clearly linked to popular resentment of tech power and wealth, and executives and investors led by Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, and Mark Zuckerberg have simply fanned the flames by adopting the Trumpian view that the concerns of the people are much ado about nothing.

许多人感到困惑和沮丧,这么多有影响力的科技大佬竟如此重注押宝特朗普。即使抛开道德不谈,这也是一场愚蠢的赌博,结果惨败,帮助将全国舆论推向了反AI一边,并迎来了一个由民主党主导的国会,后者绝不会心情愉快地倾听该行业的诉求。

re flummoxed and disheartened that so many powerful tech figures bet so heavily on Trump. Even leaving morality aside, it was a foolish gamble that backfired spectacularly, helping turn the country against AI and ushering in a Democratic-led Congress that’s going to be in no mood to hear about the industry’s needs.

但周二的大选为建立一场关于AI以及技术与社会关系的更深思熟虑的讨论打开了机会之窗。在少数仍直言不讳支持民主党的顶级风投里德·霍夫曼周四在一篇博客文章中勾勒了一些这方面的想法。

But Tuesday’s election opens up an opportunity to build a much more thoughtful discourse on AI and the relationship between technology and society. Reid Hoffman, among the few top VCs who have remained an outspoken Democrat, staked out some ideas in that regard in a blog post Thursday.

在人工智能政策及许多其他问题上,确实存在真实且合理的分歧,但我们的希望是,能通过正常的民主政治模式——尽管它并不完美——来解决这些分歧,并摆脱近年来那种丑陋的极端主义。我们将通过一个迹象来判断是否取得了进展:在这里,我们将大幅减少关于政治的报道。

There are real, legitimate differences on AI policy and many other issues, but our hope is that we can wrestle with them through normal modes of democratic politics, however flawed, and get away from the ugly extremism of recent years. One way we’ll know if there’s progress: here at , we’ll be writing a lot less about politics.

五条来自健谈科技大佬的选举推文 数据中心遭遇反弹 德州选举结果威胁马斯克计划 在为选举共和党人投入超过4亿美元(其中约一半用于德州)却以失败告终后,埃隆·马斯克如今正面临其家乡州一个更加敌对的监管环境。

Five Election Tweets from Talkative Techies Data Center Backlash Texas Results Threaten Musk’s Plans After spending more than $400 million, with around half of it in Texas, on a failed effort to elect Republicans, Elon Musk is now facing down a much more hostile regulatory environment in his home state.

不仅是当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨将反对数据中心、以及反对马斯克作为其竞选的核心组成部分,新当选的州审计长莎拉·埃克哈特现在将审查全州经济发展计划的申请,例如“就业、能源、技术与创新法案”(JETI),该法案曾帮助马斯克获得其Terafab芯片工厂的批准。她竞选时承诺将把该办公室作为监管机构运作,并将对大企业补贴持高度批评态度。

Not only did governor-elect Gina Hinojosa make data center opposition, and Musk, a central component of her campaign, but Sarah Eckhardt, the state’s newly elected comptroller, will now review applications for statewide economic development initiatives like the Jobs, Energy, Technology and Innovation Act (JETI) that helped Musk gain approval for his Terafab chip factory. She campaigned on running the office as a watchdog that would be highly critical of big-business subsidies.

周四,特斯拉和SpaceX股价分别下跌11%和9%,此前两只股票周三各自已下跌约3%。大多数与人工智能相关的股票,尤其是芯片股,周四遭遇重挫。

Tesla and SpaceX shares were down 11% and 9% Thursday after each dropping roughly 3% on Wednesday. Most stocks tied to AI, and especially chip stocks, took a beating Thursday.

在州和地方选票上的41项数据中心相关议案中,除了一项外,选民在所有议案上都站在了反对数据中心一边。新的延误已经出现:在佐治亚州埃芬汉姆县,县委员会在选举结果出炉前夕,推迟了对一个新数据中心选址的投票。

Of the 41 data center measures on state and local ballots, voters sided against data centers in all but one. Fresh delays are already appearing: In Effingham County, Georgia, county commissioners postponed a vote on a new data center site right before election results rolled in.

卫星图像显示,由IREN支持的一个微软数据中心项目缺乏发电机和冷却设备。另一个由Nebius和DataOne主导、位于新泽西州的微软项目,因许可问题面临重大延误。

Satellite images of construction sites show a Microsoft data center project supported by IREN lacking power generators and cooling equipment. Another project for Microsoft led by Nebius and DataOne in New Jersey is facing major delays from permitting issues.

一份来自GlobalData的最新报告指出,由于公众反对和电网接入延迟等结构性问题,数据中心项目的平均建设周期已比以往延长了33%。

A fresh report from GlobalData says that the average data center project is now taking 33% longer to complete due to public opposition and structural issues like grid connection delays.

Cerebral Valley:为什么大家都在反对AI?三张图表揭示企业为何对AI趋之若鹜。Menlo Ventures《企业AI现状报告》的数据显示,企业对AI工具、AI应用支出占比以及开源模型在企业AI中的角色这三张图表,揭示了企业对AI的狂热追捧。六笔值得关注的交易:Fal、Zipline、Northwood Space、Applied Compute、Traversal + Valor Equity Partners。

Cerebral Valley Show Why Is Everyone Turning Against AI? Three Big Charts Enterprises Love AI, Coding Tools, and Open-Source Models Businesses can’t get enough of AI tools, data from Menlo Ventures’ State of Enterprise AI report reveals. These charts visit AI spending versus budget, which AI applications are accounting for that spend, and how open source is fitting into enterprise AI.

推理初创公司Fal在E轮和F轮融资中合计融资16.5亿美元。E轮融资由红杉资本领投,F轮融资由贝恩资本领投。其他F轮投资者包括英伟达、Sound Ventures和T. Rowe Price。

Six Notable Deals Fal, Zipline, Northwood Space, Applied Compute, Traversal + Valor Equity Partners Inference startup Fal raised $1.65 billion across its Series E and F rounds. The Series E was led by Sequoia and the Series F was led by Bessemer Venture Partners. Other investors in the F include Nvidia, Sound Ventures, and T. Rowe Price.

无人机配送初创公司Zipline在Paradigm、WCM Investment Management和Layer Global领投下,新融资15亿美元。其他投资者包括Valor Equity Partners、富达、Uber、Tiger Global、摩根大通、ARK Invest和Salesforce Ventures。

Drone delivery startup Zipline raised $1.5 billion in new funding led by Paradigm, WCM Investment Management, and Layer Global. Other investors include Valor Equity Partners, Fidelity, Uber, Tiger Global, JPMorgan, ARK Invest, and Salesforce Ventures.

Northwood Space是一家卫星天线制造商和地面站提供商,在a16z和DFJ Growth联合领投下,完成C轮3.75亿美元融资。其他投资者包括Alpine Space Ventures、Washington Harbour Partners、StepStone和In-Q-Tel。

Northwood Space, a satellite antenna builder and ground station provider, raised $375 million in Series C funding co-led by a16z and DFJ Growth. Other investors include Alpine Space Ventures, Washington Harbour Partners, StepStone, and In-Q-Tel.

Applied Compute为商业客户构建定制开源AI模型,在Elad Gil领投下完成新一轮3.5亿美元融资。其他投资者包括Kleiner Perkins、Lux Capital、Hanabi Capital、英伟达、Blackstone、Shopify Ventures、HubSpot Ventures、Diffusion、Definition、Timeless、Layer Global、Neo、Abstract、Nova、Quantum Light、First Harmonic和Swish。

Applied Compute, which builds custom open-source AI models for businesses, raised $350 million in a new funding round led by Elad Gil. Other investors include Kleiner Perkins, Lux Capital, Hanabi Capital, Nvidia, Blackstone, Shopify Ventures, HubSpot Ventures, Diffusion, Definition, Timeless, Layer Global, Neo, Abstract, Nova, Quantum Light, First Harmonic, and Swish.

Traversal利用AI审查和排查软件问题,在Kleiner Perkins、Redpoint Ventures、Khosla Ventures和Sequoia Capital联合领投下,完成B轮1.2亿美元融资。

Traversal, which uses AI to review and troubleshoot software issues, raised $120 million in Series B funding co-led by Kleiner Perkins, Redpoint Ventures, Khosla Ventures, and Sequoia Capital.

据证券文件显示,Valor Equity Partners 迄今已为其新基金筹集了近 33 亿美元。

Valor Equity Partners has raised nearly $3.3 billion so far for a new fund, per securities filings.

我们正在阅读的报道:谷歌遭遇学校方面的麻烦,《纽约时报》聚焦阿莫代伊,《曼尼迪斯与罗伯茨》进入论文领域,逆向工程成焦点。一篇关于达里奥·阿莫代伊的新报道揭示了硅谷的意识形态运动在他思想中扮演的巨大角色。文章强调,在2000年代中期攻读博士学位期间,阿莫代伊是超人类主义发明家雷·库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)的热情支持者,也是理性主义作家兼人工智能研究员埃利泽·尤德科夫斯基(Eliezer Yudkowsky)的拥护者,尤德科夫斯基被广泛认为是“末日论者之首”。

Stories We’re Reading Google Hits School Trouble, NYT Profiles Amodei, Manidis & Roberts Enter the Essay Arena, Reverse Engineering in the Spotlight A new profile of Dario Amodei sheds light on the outsized role Silicon Valley’s ideological movements have played in his thinking. The piece highlights how, as a doctoral student in the mid-2000s, Amodei was known as an enthusiastic proponent of transhumanist inventor Ray Kurzweil, author of and rationalist writer and AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky, widely considered the doomer-in-chief.

当阿莫代伊在OpenAI工作时,他曾主张该公司不应再接受彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)的捐款,因为蒂尔曾向唐纳德·特朗普2016年的竞选活动捐款,而Founders Fund后来联合领投了Anthropic的G轮融资,这可能会引起风险投资家们的质疑。但如果阿莫代伊的信念如报道所述仍然如此自由派,那么他似乎很有可能利用民主党国会复苏的机会,特别是当其他大型科技公司不明智地选择支持一位跛脚鸭总统时。

VC eyebrows might also be raised by Amodei arguing while working at OpenAI that the firm should no longer accept money from Peter Thiel due to his donations to Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign, given that Founders Fund later co-led Anthropic’s Series G. But if Amodei’s beliefs remain as liberal as reported, he seems well-placed to take advantage of a resurgent Democratic Congress, particularly as the rest of Big Tech has unwisely chosen to back a lame-duck president. (Although, he will first have to face some investor skepticism that Anthropic can achieve a $1.5 trillion valuation in its IPO.)

(不过,他首先需要克服一些投资者的怀疑,即Anthropic能否在其首次公开募股中达到1.5万亿美元的估值。)谷歌周二宣布,在教育工作者和家长要求对孩子如何与人工智能互动拥有更多控制权后,将允许学校在其教育软件中关闭其人工智能工具。然而,作为这一变化的一部分,任何关闭人工智能设置的学校将无法再访问谷歌搜索。

Google announced on Tuesday that it would allow schools to turn off its AI tools in its educational software after some outside pressure from educators and parents who wanted more control over how their children interact with AI. However, as part of the change, any school that switches AI settings off will no longer be able to access Google Search.

谷歌教育副总裁克里斯·菲利普斯(Chris Phillips)解释说,搜索和人工智能“深度整合”。这一决定令许多反垄断倡导者感到沮丧,他们批评谷歌——前联邦贸易委员会主席莉娜·汗(Lina Khan)表示,该公司“利用其搜索垄断来胁迫学校”采用这项技术。纽约市市长佐兰·马姆达尼(Zohran Mamdani)、参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)和参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔(Richard Blumenthal)等官员迅速谴责了这些变化。

Chris Phillips, Google’s vice president for education, explained the decision by saying that search and AI were “deeply integrated.”The decision has frustrated many antitrust advocates who are critical of Google — former FTC chair Lina Khan said the company was “using its search monopoly to coerce schools” into adopting this technology. Officials like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Senator Bernie Sanders, and Senator Richard Blumenthal swiftly condemned the changes.

该公司在受到强烈反对后,对其强硬立场有所软化,并于周二晚些时候发表声明称,学校将能够选择开启或关闭包括搜索在内的个别功能,而不是一刀切地移除。一个月前有报道称,教师们表示,谷歌的人工智能驱动的教育技术进军课堂,对高质量学习造成了严重影响,孩子们在家庭作业、阅读和情感支持方面完全依赖聊天机器人。

The company retreated a bit from its hard stance after the backlash and said in a statement later Tuesday that schools would be able to turn individual features on or off, including search, rather than a blanket removal. Thereported a month ago that teachers say Google’s AI-fueled edtech push into classrooms has been terrible for quality learning, with kids becoming fully dependent on chatbots for homework, readings, and emotional support.

威尔·马尼迪斯和乔·罗伯茨的这篇长文,已跻身“以过度雕琢的论文形式写成的技术资本投资论点”的经典之列。这份145页的文本充斥着华丽辞藻,并不时援引布莱克、赫胥黎等文学巨匠,但其主旨延续自利奥波德·阿申布伦纳那份臭名昭著的宣言:随着美国和中国都将前沿模型视为国家安全优先事项,前沿模型会越来越好,而规模定律将继续成立。

Will Manidis and Joe Roberts’ has entered the canon of techno-capital investment theses written as overwrought essays. The 145-page text features plenty of purple prose and allusions to literary greats like Blake and Huxley, but the thrust of the piece continues on from Leopold Aschenbrenner’s infamous manifesto, : frontier models will get better and better as the US and China consider it a national security priority, and scaling laws will hold.

文章进而论证,智能将变得廉价、充裕且商品化,因此前沿实验室无法保住这些财富。文章还认为,芯片和电力消耗等瓶颈只是暂时的,持久收益将归于那些掌控向实体经济分发机器智能的渠道的一方,并援引铁路和谷歌广告等历史案例。马尼迪斯表示:“扩散才是AI真正的故事,而推动这种扩散的公司将在未来十年成为经济中压倒性的一大部分。”

It breaks out by arguing that intelligence will become cheap, abundant, and commoditized, so frontier labs won’t keep the wealth. It also argues that bottlenecks such as chips and power consumption are temporary, and that durable gains will go to whoever controls distribution of machine intelligence to the real economy, using historical examples including railroads and Google Ads. Manidis told that “diffusion is the real story of AI, and that the companies that power that diffusion will become the overwhelming chunk of the economy over the next decade.”

处境艰难的SaaS公司又多了一个需要担忧的AI威胁:智能体从零开始逆向工程它们的软件。本周的一篇文章详细解析了GitHub项目“Reverse Engineer Anything”(REA,逆向工程一切),该项目让用户把软件拆解为二进制代码,并重新构建,以供个人免费使用。这一过程过去需要专家耗时数月,如今一组坚持不懈的智能体就能完成。

Embattled SaaS companies have yet another AI fear to worry about: agents reverse-engineering their software from scratch. A piece in this week broke down the GitHub project Reverse Engineer Anything, or REA, which lets users break software down into binary code and reconstitute it for free personal use. This process previously took months of expert work but can now be achieved by a group of persistent agents.

前沿模型已被用于构建Adobe和微软Office软件的开源克隆版本,开发者们由此发问:如果功能集可以在内部轻松开发和更新,SaaS公司还如何在价格上竞争?文章作者彼得·霍尔表示,Anthropic此后通过更新Opus 5.5的提示词,对使用Claude Code克隆电子游戏的行为进行了打击,但尚不清楚这一新限制总体上能拦住多少逆向工程行为。

Frontier models have already been used to build open-source clones of Adobe and Microsoft Office software, and developers are wondering how SaaS firms will compete on price if feature sets can be easily produced and updated in-house. Peter Hall, the article’s author, told that Anthropic has since cracked down on using Claude Code to clone video games by updating Opus 5.5’s prompt, but it’s unclear how much overall reverse engineering this new restriction will catch.

对于保护知识产权能力较弱的小型科技公司来说,逆向工程可能是个更大的问题。一位制作定制吉他效果器的网络评论者表示,他竟能如此轻松地用Claude复制竞争对手的产品,这令他感到不安:“我现在……就这么拿到了他们屡获殊荣的算法。”

Reverse engineering could be an even bigger problem for small tech companies with less ability to protect their IP. One online commenter, who creates bespoke guitar pedals, expressed his dismay over the ease with which he could replicate his competitors’ products with Claude, “I just... have their award winning algorithms now.”

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