10月就业报告将强化美联储官员的观点，即劳动力市场状况稳健，通胀数据和金融市场动态将决定是否在下个月实施市场普遍预期的加息。
The October employment report will reinforce Federal Reserve officials’ view that the labor market is in solid shape, leaving inflation data and developments in financial markets to determine whether to deliver a widely expected rate increase next month.
周五的报告显示，失业率继续横盘整理，近几个月维持在4.1%左右，而10月招聘活动有所回升，且晚夏招聘情况比最初报告的更为强劲。
Friday’s report showed the unemployment rate has continued to move sideways, around 4.1% in recent months, while hiring picked up in October and was stronger over the late summer than first reported.
美联储上周将基准利率维持在3.75%至4%的区间，此前曾在9月加息。两位官员——理事库克和克利夫兰联储主席哈马克——持不同意见，主张再次加息。数月来，委员会判断劳动力市场大体处于平衡状态，而通胀高于2%的目标，因此辩论焦点集中在物价而非招聘上。
The Fed held its benchmark rate in a range between 3.75% and 4% last week, after raising it in September. Two officials, governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, dissented in favor of another increase. The committee has judged for months that the labor market is roughly in balance while inflation is above its 2% target, so the debate has centered on prices, not hiring.
自那次会议以来，更大的发展发生在市场上。科技股周四暴跌，延续了始于10月中旬的AI相关股票抛售潮。投资者正在重新评估AI交易，因为芯片、电力和其他投入品的短缺推高成本的速度快于企业将其转嫁的速度，这损害了利润。
The bigger development since that meeting has been in markets. Tech stocks tumbled Thursday, extending a selloff in AI-linked stocks that began in mid-October. Investors have been reassessing the AI trade as shortages of chips, power and other inputs are pushing up costs faster than companies can pass them on, which hurts profits.
抛售是否以及为何持续可能与美联储相关。剧烈但短暂的回调可能不会引起官员重视。但由对建立在AI支出基础上的估值是否合理产生更根本怀疑所驱动的持续重新定价，可能会收紧金融条件，并拖累一直支撑增长的财富和投资实力。反过来，这将替官员们完成更多他们希望通过加息来实现的工作。
Whether and why the selloff continues could be relevant to the Fed. A sharp but brief correction might not with officials. But a sustained repricing, driven by more fundamental doubts about whether the valuations built on AI spending can be justified, could tighten financial conditions and weigh on the wealth and investment strength that has supported growth. That, in turn, would do more of the work that officials want from higher rates.
这个问题可能比周五的就业报告所显示的内容更重要。美联储主席凯文·沃什已表现出更大的兴趣，关注前瞻性市场对经济的看法，并对依赖滞后的月度统计数据来制定利率持怀疑态度。在就任之前，沃什曾称“数据依赖”可能是货币政策中最危险的词汇之一，理由是政府数据具有滞后性且容易被修正。
That question could matter more than what Friday’s employment report shows. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has signaled both greater interest in what forward-looking markets are saying about the economy and skepticism about leaning on backward-looking monthly statistics to set rates. Before taking the job, Warsh called “data dependent” potentially among the most dangerous words in monetary policy, citing both the lagged and revision-prone nature of government figures.
自上周会议以来，多位美联储官员已表示，需要以渐进的步伐进一步加息，这在很大程度上强化了下个月再次加息的强烈预期。
Since last week’s meeting, several Fed officials have suggested more increases will be needed at a gradual pace, broadly reinforcing a strong presumption of another rate rise next month.
将于周二公布的10月消费者价格指数，是官员们在12月8日至9日会议前将看到的最后一份CPI读数；11月的报告将在利率决定公布的第二天发布。在会议召开前，美联储官员还将获得一个月的就业数据。考虑到这些报告以及市场回调将持续到何种程度，周五的就业数据完全可能沦为脚注。
The October consumer-price index, due Tuesday, is the last CPI reading officials will see before their Dec. 8-9 meeting; November’s report comes out the day after the decision. Fed officials will also have one more month of employment data before they meet. Between those reports and how far the market correction runs, Friday’s jobs numbers could well become a footnote.